Focus on the development of new energy vehicles in 2022
Editor's Note
The year 2021 that just passed was an extraordinary year for the automotive industry. This year, although the new energy automobile industry was affected by factors such as lack of cores and the epidemic, it still showed strong vitality; this year, driven by a number of favorable policies, new energy vehicles entered a new stage of explosive growth. In 2022, driven by the "double carbon" goal, accelerating "decarbonization" has become a major trend in the automotive industry, and vigorously developing new energy vehicles has become the consensus of car companies, whether it is electric vehicles or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will step onto a new level.
Photo credit:Xinhua News Agency
Over the past decade, the theme of change in the automotive industry has been electrification, which is currently very successful. In the next stage, the theme of change will be based on electrification intelligence, and the intelligent network connection of automobiles will be more common.
■ Lu Hongxing, reporter of China Economic Times
2021 has just passed, and perhaps there is confidence to call it the "first year of new energy vehicles".
According to data from the China Automobile Association, in the first 11 months of 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China has reached 2.99 million. At the same time, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles has also increased from 9.4% in the first half of 2021 to 12.7%. In November 2021, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger cars in China exceeded 20%, reaching 20.8%.
The sales volume and penetration rate of new energy vehicles will increase rapidly month by month in 2021, which also marks that China's new energy vehicle market has entered a new stage of explosive growth.
The sales explosion is caused by multiple factors
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Lin Cheng, chief scientist of the National Engineering Laboratory for Electric Vehicles at Beijing Institute of Technology, said in an interview with the China Economic Times that in 2020, because of the sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic, sales have been affected to a certain extent, and 2.99 million vehicles in the first 11 months of 2021 is a good sales volume and a good release.
It is understood that the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the automotive industry in 2021 has gradually faded, and the recovery trend opened in the second half of 2020 will continue in 2021.
"At present, the public's recognition of new energy vehicles is already a consensus, whether it is a private car, logistics vehicle or commercial vehicle has been fully industrialized, the cost of new energy vehicles is gradually decreasing, whether it is batteries or motor parts are reduced due to industrialization." At the same time, under the 'double carbon' policy, the support of national policies for new energy vehicles is unprecedented. Lin Cheng further said.
Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center of North China University of Technology, told this reporter that the sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 were gratifying, with sales of 2.99 million vehicles in the first 11 months, far exceeding the industry's expectations, mainly due to the following four factors.
First, new energy vehicles are usually integrated with intelligent networking, which is integrated together, and this intelligent network connection is a completely new function that fuel vehicles did not have before. Therefore, this feature of intelligent networking is very popular with young people, and to a certain extent, it has also driven the sales of new energy vehicles.
Second, at present, it is still during the COVID-19 epidemic, and during the epidemic, consumers have particularly strong demands on the privacy of travel.
Third, the tightening of license policies has led to the early release of purchasing power of many consumers, which is also a driving force.
Fourth, the double credit policy is also tightening, many traditional fuel vehicle companies have felt a certain pressure, and traditional automobile companies are now joining the new energy automobile industry, which is also a reason for the substantial growth in sales of new energy vehicles.
In 2022, domestic automotive chips are expected to be further released
Although new energy vehicles have made significant achievements in 2021, the soaring price of battery raw materials and the lack of chip supply in 2021 have brought a lot of pressure to new energy vehicles. Many car companies are plagued by lack of cores. Due to the shortage of chips, many car companies have to choose to reduce production.
In 2022, whether the problem of "lack of core and less electricity" of new energy vehicles can be alleviated or even effectively solved has become a common concern of the majority of new energy vehicle companies.
"At this stage, there is no sign of effective mitigation, but it is a trend that domestic chips are being used on a large scale." Lin Cheng said.
According to the reporter's understanding, under the background of the shortage of global semiconductor production capacity and the strong support of domestic new energy vehicle policies, the vicious circle faced by automotive chips - "the more immature the more immature, the more immature the more unused" The embarrassing situation is being alleviated to a certain extent.
"In the past, foreign chips were relatively cheap, coupled with the lack of trust in domestic chips by car companies, under the supply chain crisis, domestic chips 'catch ducks on the shelves', after use is not bad, it should be said that the chip supply crisis has promoted the application of domestic chips to a certain extent." Lin Cheng said.
Compared with Lin Cheng, Zhang Xiang is relatively optimistic about whether the new energy automobile industry will continue to "lack core and less electricity" in 2022.
In Zhang Xiang's view, the chip industry chain of new energy vehicles is different from traditional fuel vehicles, and many chips can be produced domestically. With the release of domestic chip production capacity, "lack of core and less electricity" in the field of new energy, in 2022 will be alleviated.
Under the trend of rapid development of the domestic new energy automobile industry, it has also brought new development opportunities for the localization of the automotive chip industry.
The intelligent networking of automobiles will become more common in the future
"Just booked a car a few days ago, I originally wanted to send a year-end bonus to buy a car, but the sales call said that the subsidy for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced, and it is the most cost-effective to buy now." Mr. Li, who lives in Yizhuang, Beijing, told reporters.
According to the new energy subsidy policy issued by the Ministry of Finance, the implementation period of the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles is extended to the end of 2022, and in principle, the subsidy standards from 2020 to 2022 will be reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year.
In Lin Cheng's view, the subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2022 have been very small, compared to subsidies, new energy vehicle companies pay more attention to state support at the application end, and the people buy new energy vehicles mainly focus on the reduction and reduction of car purchase taxes.
Industry insiders generally believe that for brands with good market recognition, the impact of sales may not be large; but for some second- and third-tier brands, the price competitiveness of some new energy vehicles has declined after the subsidy has declined.
"In 2022, new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021. In the face of the decline of subsidies, many car companies have begun to expand their technical lines to cope with it. Zhang Xiang said.
It should be noted that in the past decade, the theme of transformation in the automotive industry has been electrification. In the next stage of the development of the automobile industry, in which areas will there be major changes?
In Lin Cheng's view, in the past decade, the theme of the transformation of the automobile industry has been electrification, and it is currently very successful. The state is more confident to promote the next round of automotive technology revolution, such as the intelligent networking of automobiles and the promotion and application of hydrogen energy vehicles. Compared with electric vehicles, the cycle of hydrogen energy vehicles will be longer, but there should be breakthroughs in specific areas.
Zhang Xiang believes that the intelligent networking of new energy vehicles will develop rapidly, and new energy vehicles will gradually replace fuel vehicles, which is a big trend. Related to new energy vehicles, such as charging piles, power exchanges will increase significantly, and there will be many procurement of new energy vehicles in online car-hailing.
According to the "Development Trend and Policy Outlook of the New Energy Automobile Industry" released in December 2021, the theme of change in the next stage will be intelligent based on electrification. The popularity of electrification depends on intelligence to pull, simple electric vehicles will not become the market selling point, only more intelligent cars are the focus of market competition. On the other hand, only electric vehicles can be more completely embedded in intelligent technology, and the best carrier of intelligent technology is the platform of electrification. On the basis of electrification, intelligence will be accelerated, and the "two modernizations" will be formally integrated in the car.
"In the next stage, automotive intelligent networking will be more common, and automotive intelligent networking will increase intelligent driving functions, but fully autonomous driving is not realistic in the short term." Automatic driving is a system engineering, which requires the improvement of related supporting facilities, such as intelligent transportation, laws and regulations, and the quality of people, etc., which are related to a wide range of aspects. Lin Cheng stressed.
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