No one is worried that there will be a surplus of new energy vehicles?

"Mr. Lv Yang No. 1209 Sharing"

Economist Ren Zeping said at the annual investment meeting that although the current contribution of the new energy automobile industry to the economy is less than one-tenth of that of real estate, but its growth rate is very fast, exponential growth brings rapid growth in market penetration, if in the next ten years or longer, fuel vehicles are significantly replaced by new energy vehicles, coupled with the market scale brought by the downstream industry, the new energy automobile industry will become the most promising field to replace real estate, heavy chemicals and other sectors.

I completely disagree with this view.

New energy vehicles cannot increase the overall sales of automobiles. For example, I originally wanted to buy a car, but now I have nothing more than to choose between a fuel car and a new energy vehicle, and I will not buy 2 cars because of this.

It can even be understood that every new energy vehicle sold will reduce the sales of a traditional fuel vehicle at the same time, nothing more.

Overall, the overall sales and demand for cars is dynamically balanced. New energy vehicles have only robbed some of the sales of fuel vehicles.

New energy vehicles can indeed drive many upstream and downstream industries. forehead...... Traditional fuel vehicles are not the same. Is it true that traditional fuel vehicles do not have upstream and downstream?

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's total automobile sales are expected to reach 26.1 million units in 2021, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year.

Among them, passenger car sales were 21.3 million units, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year, and commercial vehicle sales were 4.8 million units, down 6.4% year-on-year.

New energy vehicles sold 3.4 million units, up 1.5 times year-on-year.

In 2021, new energy vehicles will account for only 13% of China's total automobile sales. At this stage, the drawbacks of short mileage, difficult charging and slow charging of new energy vehicles are also obvious.

New energy vehicles are indeed the future of automobiles. But if you want to completely replace the traditional fuel car, it will be N years later.

In 2021, sales in China's real estate market are expected to exceed 18 trillion yuan, and the possibility of creating a record is very high.

The most promising alternative to new energy vehicles can only be traditional fuel vehicles. Replacing real estate, that's nonsense.

If you have to find an industry, you have to replace real estate. Then the financial industry is obviously much more reliable than new energy vehicles.

Take A shares alone, it is only 3600 points now, and the total market value has exceeded 90 trillion yuan. A slight rise, more than 18 trillion yuan, is not too difficult.

Also, why replace real estate?

Although housing is not speculated, the golden decade of real estate has passed. But the skinny camel is bigger than the horse, and the volume of real estate should not be underestimated.

Moreover, the drive of real estate on upstream and downstream industries is beyond the reach of new energy vehicles.

If you want to blow new energy vehicles, blow well. Don't blow one, step on one, it's not authentic.

When everyone is enthusiastic about new energy vehicles, when the upstream and downstream industries are frantically expanding production capacity, is there really no one worried about the future will be a surplus mess?

At this stage, including in the next few years, new energy vehicles will never completely replace traditional fuel vehicles. According to the current sales growth trend, the sales of new energy vehicles have reached a relative peak, and it is estimated that it will not be too long.

In the foreseeable future, when the proportion of new energy vehicles reaches 30% or 50%, the growth rate of sales will decline significantly, and may not even grow anymore. Then, how to digest so much capacity?

Perhaps these issues do not need to be considered for now. But man has no far-sighted worries, but will have near-term worries.

You have earned the money, and when the time comes, is it too much, and are you ready to let the country rescue it?

…………

On Friday, December 31, 2021, A-share market data at a glance:

Large plate heat: 60%

Shanghai Index: 0.57%

Shenzhen Index: 0.41%

GEM Index: 0.00%

Up: 2793

Down: 1703

Limit: 75

Stop: 16

The main capital of the large market: -9.1 billion yuan

Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect funds: 4.6 billion yuan

Turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen cities: 1,060.2 billion yuan

Market short-term sentiment:

"Yesterday's Board" index, +1.22%.

Jiuan Medical, after 23 stops, finally fell to a stop.

According to Taiwan media reports, Evergreen Shipping, Taiwan's largest shipping company, began to issue year-end bonuses to employees, and some people actually received bonuses of up to 40 times the monthly salary, equivalent to more than NT$2 million in year-end bonuses.

I converted it to more than NT$2 million, which is about 460,000 YUAN.

It can only be said that this year the shipping company did make a lot of money.

It is foreseeable that companies such as COSCO Offshore Holdings should have a lot of bonuses at the end of the year.

However, the shipping company occasionally issued a high bonus because of its good revenue. Compared with the big money thrown by the Internet manufacturer every year, it is still a little brother.

In a few days, you will see how generous the bonuses of The Internet giants are.

In 2021, the Shanghai Composite Index achieved 3 consecutive yangs in the annual line, which is the second time in history.

The last time the annual line was achieved was in 1993.

Throughout 2021:

Shanghai Composite Index, +4.80%.

SZSE, +2.67%.

The SZSE index is under the ChiNext index, +12.02%.

SSE 50 Index, -10.06%.

CSI 300 Index, -5.20%.

CSI 500 Index, +15.58%.

CSI 1000 Index, +20.52%.

Academician "Wu Xiangping" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences said that he believes in the existence of aliens and hopes to find a planet suitable for human habitation.

Old readers know that I absolutely believe in aliens.

There may be more aliens in the entire universe than we can imagine.

Of course, there are some aliens who may be much behind us. However, those who can come to the earth are, of course, much more advanced than us.

The universe is so big, if only the earth has life, and it is not too wasteful.

Maybe on some distant planet, a group of aliens took a picture of the probe and said: Look at the blue planet, our instruments detected through spectra that it was full of oxygen. Everyone should know that no living thing can survive in oxygen, and there must be no life on that planet...

We'll see you again in 2022!

2021/12/31 16 points 15min

This article comes from the WeChat public account: Mr. Lu Yang

Special Statement: Any of my views are for exchange and discussion and do not constitute any investment advice. Enter the market accordingly at your own risk. The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when investing! I am not responsible for updating the views of previous articles, and all articles are subject to the latest articles.

I do not recommend shares, do not establish any group, do not add any contact information, and will not take the initiative to guide the operation. But anyone who takes the initiative to contact you is a liar, beware of being deceived.