A few days ago, Tesla CEO, Silicon Valley Iron Man Musk predicted a financial crisis before 2023.
Just a few days ago, some netizens asked Musk when the next financial crisis will be, and Musk replied: "Predicting that the macro economy is very challenging, my intuition is that it may be in the spring or summer of 2022, but not later than 2023."
In the field of investment, we all know that recession begins with prosperity, plunge begins with boom, if there is no surge, where is the plunge?
The small partners who pay attention to the economy every day know that in the past two decades, along with the rapid development of our country's economy, in addition to housing prices and the growing mortgages on the heads of the people, the real estate industry is also one of the few industries in our economy that has risen continuously for decades, but this kind of thing is not ours, and the original beautiful country, Japan, etc. is also the case.
From 2007 to 2008, the house prices in beautiful countries at that time have risen for more than 20 consecutive years, and the eternal rise in house prices has become a belief, is it very similar to us in the previous two years?
When I brushed vibrato in the first two years, the comments I saw were particularly interesting, saying that I only saw the decline in house prices in vibrato, and in reality, I only saw house prices rising. This is what we often say, your feeling is backward in the actual economic cycle, when you think that a thing is good, then its good must be reflected in the price, when everyone thinks that buying a house can preserve the value of making money, the house price is basically over.
In beautiful countries, loans are a very common phenomenon. Locals rarely buy a house in full, usually on long-term loans. Unemployment and reemployment are also very common phenomena. Those whose income is unstable or even have no income at all, buying a house is defined as a subprime credit lender, referred to as a subprime lender, because the credit rating does not meet the standard.
So how did the beautiful countries at that time play into a financial crisis?
They encourage everyone (naturally, including low-income people) to buy a house, whether you have an income, whether you have a job, whether your income is stable, whether your job is stable, whether you can repay so many loans in the future, they encourage you to take out a loan to buy a house, which is exactly the slogan that Bush Jr. once shouted.
And their lending institutions are more for low-income people to develop an inducing interest rate, that is, fixed interest rate and floating interest rate combination of loan method, that is, the first two years of zero interest rate, two years after the gradual addition of interest rates, that is, for buyers, this is not a fixed mortgage interest rate, but will be adjusted at any time, once the interest rate begins to rise, the burden on buyers will increase, and vice versa will reduce the burden of monthly payments, which is actually to transfer the risk of the bank to the buyers, You can afford it now when there is zero interest rate, and when interest rates start to rise in the future, will you still be able to afford it?
At that time, the beautiful country in the background of legal reform, Wall Street speculative atmosphere is getting stronger, with the interest rate continues to fall, asset securitization and financial innovation speed continues to accelerate, the whole society is full of luxury consumption culture and blind optimism about the future, which also provides the possibility of ordinary people through borrowing to advance consumption, especially the myth that the real estate market only rises and does not fall, inducing a large number of consumers who do not have the ability to repay have poured into the real estate market through mortgage means.
The latter thing everyone knows, house prices can not rise to the sky, debt always has a limit, beautiful country at that time all financial innovation, whether it is CDO or CDS, is based on the rising house prices. Once the mortgage interest rate begins to rise, people's income is not enough to repay the debt principal and interest, and then when no one takes over, it will lead to a decline in house prices, then passed to the financial market, is a word, collapse.
Since the Reagan administration came to power in the early 1980s, the United States began to gradually relax restrictions on the financial industry by enacting and revising laws, promoting financial liberalization and so-called financial innovation, and financial innovation was precisely the root cause of the spread of the financial crisis, and the market value of CDS in the beautiful countries at that time had been speculated to $62 trillion, sweeping the world's major financial markets such as the United States, the European Union and Japan.
Seeing this, smart friends will definitely ask, what about us?
For example, in 2018, we proposed the six stability policy, and then proposed the six guarantees, six stability and six guarantee policies, namely:
Six stability: six stability refers to stabilizing the main body of foreign trade, stabilizing the industrial chain and supply chain, that is, "stable employment", "stable investment", "stable expectations", "stable foreign trade", "stable finance", "stable foreign investment".
Six guarantees: The six guarantees are mainly the work of "guaranteeing" six aspects, that is, "ensuring the employment of residents", "ensuring the basic people's livelihood", "ensuring the stability of the industrial chain supply chain", "ensuring the operation of the grass-roots level", "ensuring food and energy security", and "ensuring the main body of the market". ”
The first of the six stables to stabilize employment, the first of the six guarantees to ensure employment, the management is very clear, employment is the current basic support of our housing prices, stable employment can stabilize the real estate, stable housing enterprises can stabilize expectations, stable expectations will not occur large-scale selling and stampede events, do not occur large-scale selling will not lead to systemic risks.
Therefore, the policy should be linked to see, the biggest difference between us and the beautiful country is the real estate of this gray rhinoceros We have long begun to prevent, whether it is the original housing is not speculated, the three red lines or the later second-hand housing guidance price, and the real estate tax pilot that may be launched after two years after tomorrow, etc., many of our preparations have actually been prepared almost, and then it depends on when it will land.
And the crises that can really cause lethality are often the risk of sudden outbreaks, just like the epidemic of the previous year, last year's torrential rain, so even if there is a financial crisis caused by some black swan events in the future, the impact we will suffer may be the smallest, just like a big coffee said: jumping down from the eighteenth floor and jumping down from the second floor are two concepts.