Author | Jia Weizhong
Source | Car selection network
Recently, the A-share real estate index (931775) has experienced a downward momentum after 20 consecutive days of continuous growth. During the period when the index continued to rise, some investment institutions put forward suggestions to pay close attention to the real estate sector. But at that time, some insiders pointed out: "Real estate is a short-term market, and it needs to take profits immediately!" ”
Since mid-March, the A-share real estate index has gained a large wave of gains, from the stage low of 3913.14 points on March 16 to 5387.93 points in the intraday on April 6, a cumulative increase of 1474.79 points, an increase of 37.69%. Correspondingly, a number of real estate stocks rose.
In this regard, a number of investment institutions have given positive judgments on the future market. CICC believes: "From an internal point of view, we believe that the next 1-2 months will be a critical period for policy concentration, including real estate relaxation, infrastructure project acceleration, monetary credit continued investment and other possible policy means, economic growth is expected to gradually pick up." ”
CITIC Securities said: "Real estate policy follows a counter-cyclical law, and when the market declines to a certain extent, the policy may turn more active." At present, the real estate market has bottomed out, the land market has been adjusted, several provincial capital cities have relaxed the real estate restriction policy at multiple levels, while the quality of land transferred in core cities has improved, and the profitability of the land market in high-tier cities is recovering. In this context, due to the city's policies and the 'three stability' policy is more active, it will usher in a policy window period. ”
However, bank loan data reflects that the real estate situation in mainland China is still grim. As of March 29, a total of nine listed banks have released their 2021 financial reports. Among them, the largest scale of housing loans is Industrial Bank, which by the end of 2021 has invested 1.65 trillion yuan in the real estate sector, with a non-performing rate of 1.34%. According to estimates, the non-performing balance of the real estate industry is as high as 22.1 billion yuan. At the same time, the Bank of China said at the 2021 results conference on March 29: "Improve the prevention and control and monitoring of the risks of large households, and pay close attention to the fluctuations in the financial market." ”
In this regard, some professionals believe: "From the perspective of the non-performing loan ratio of real estate in 2021, the non-performing rate of China CITIC Bank and other non-performing loans has risen compared with 2020, and the real estate industry has made listed banks more and more exposed to housing-related risks, and at present, the risk of the entire real estate industry is still in the rising stage, and the overall industry non-performing rate will certainly rise further, before in the tide of real estate debt defaults, the floating loss of Ping An Investment Huaxia Happiness exceeded 10 billion yuan, involving a risk exposure of 54 billion yuan." Overall, on the one hand, financial data in February showed weak real estate demand; on the other hand, after Evergrande, Sunac was also in a dilemma. Whether it is macro data or micro business operations, they reflect the dismal operation of real estate entities. Therefore, the hot A-share real estate sector, as far as the current situation is concerned, it is recommended to participate in the short-term market and need to take profits in time. ”
According to the data released by the China Automobile Association recently, automobile production and sales in March fell by 9.1% and 11.7% year-on-year. Previously, among the three major factors that affected the trend of the auto market given by analysts, the sharp correction in the stock market in March was one of them. As one of the few rising sectors in the near future, the real estate index is worth vigilance after turning down after going all the way up, and the adjustment of A shares and the downturn in real estate demand will become unfavorable factors affecting automobile consumption.
(Image source: Internet)