Author | Jia Weizhong
Source | Car selection network
On March 7, the three major A-share indexes opened low and walked low, collectively closing down more than 2%. Among them, the ChiNext index fell 4.3% to the largest one-day decline since March 9 last year. On March 8, the three major A-share indexes all hit new lows in the year, and the Shanghai index lost 3300 points.
However, the "Securities Daily" quoted analysts as saying: "The sharp decline in the A-share market is mainly affected by the peripheral market, and the A-share market is currently at the bottom, so it is not advisable to be too pessimistic about the future market." ”
Recently, the annual national "two sessions" have been held, which has become the focus of attention in the capital market. However, perhaps the most important concern for individual investors is whether the "seesaw" market , the alternating rise of blue chips and growth stocks , will it continue in March?
For the direction of the future market, some institutions still adhere to the main line of steady growth. Zhongyuan Securities proposed: "In this year's work, we must adhere to the principle of being steady and seeking progress in stability. It is necessary to intensify the implementation of macroeconomic policies and stabilize the overall economic market. Unswervingly deepen reform and stimulate the vitality of market players. Prevent and resolve financial risks, and keep the bottom line of no systemic risks. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of financial risks and resolutely safeguard the overall situation of financial stability. ”
Galaxy Securities believes: "With the convening of the two sessions in March, more stable growth policies will land, and under the influence of more new trends in the two sessions, market sentiment will pick up, and the policy side will continue to exert force." ”
Zhongtai Securities said: "In the performance of the A-share market, under the main line of steady growth in February, the banking, insurance, infrastructure, coal and other sectors performed better, and the deduction of internal logic is still what we have been emphasizing before: low valuation, high dividends, and stable income sectors. In our view, this trend is expected to continue in March, with undervalued blue-chip investment opportunities still remaining the most robust thread in the market. ”
At the same time, there are also investment institutions that put forward different views. Guohai Securities said: "In March, the market has structural opportunities, growth is expected to usher in a rebound, the core is that domestic monetary policy still has room for further relaxation, overseas tightening expectations are expected to ease, in the context of the performance window is approaching, the growth sector with fuller adjustment in the early stage is dominant, and the cost performance is beginning to appear." ”
The investment strategy of Oriental Wealth Network is: "In terms of the overall idea of the March allocation, we still recommend maintaining a balanced allocation, but the position can be gradually tilted to the growth style." ”
Why tilt towards growth stocks? The reason for the Oriental Wealth Network is: "The probability of growth phase adjustment has ended." Recently, both the main line of growth and the diffusion sector have rebounded significantly at a lower point, combined with the review of growth adjustment, we believe that the growth stage adjustment since mid-December has ended. Liquidity is loose and abundant. The central bank over-produced the MLF in mid-February and invested a large net of 290 billion yuan on the 24th, and abundant liquidity will support the valuation of the growth style. The relative advantage of growth performance is highly certain. In the context of finance continuing to let profit entities, PPI decline cycle under pressure, and the stability of core CPI indicates poor consumer demand, growth performance is more certain. Policies tend to be in the growth sector. Recently, the frequent introduction of top-level design schemes such as the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Digital Economy" and the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of New Energy Storage" is expected to support the risk appetite of the growth style. ”
Although the three major A-share indexes fell on March 7, securities daily interviewed Huang Yi, director of Hongfeng Asset Investment, who believes: "The market has bottomed out, and today the Shanghai Composite Index has carried out a second bottoming action, there is strong support at 3361 points, the rebound will be triggered, and there is no need to be too pessimistic about the future market." The follow-up market is likely to remain structural. Moreover, according to the statistics of Securities Daily: "In March of the last 7 years (2015 to 2021), the overall trend of the A-share market showed a trend of 'five up and two down'. ”
On the whole, the views of investment institutions are still divided into two factions, and the side that supports blue-chip stocks believes that "the two sessions of the National People's Congress are held, and it is expected that the stable growth policy will be intensively implemented, in this context, the important position of infrastructure investment to support economic growth will not change in the short term, and the contribution to GDP growth cannot be ignored." The side that supports growth stocks believes that "the policy trend is supported, and the performance of leading companies in related sectors is growing rapidly." ”
The two sessions of the National People's Congress every year are anchored moments, and the current divergence of investment institution strategies may mean that the market in March is likely to continue the large fluctuations since February. Is the market really at the bottom? Further confirmation is yet to be made.
The above is a family statement, welcome to criticize more.
(Image source: Internet)