Commodity prices are rising and inflation is coming? Musk recommends holding 2 things

With the coronavirus, there was a serious imbalance between supply and demand, leading to global inflation and accelerated devaluation of money. In order to stimulate growth, various countries have opened the door to printing money, surging water gushing out, however, the increase in international money means devaluation of funds, inflation, such as the United States printing money plus water release up to the trillion level, not only makes local prices soar, but also affects other countries.

The mainland has also inevitably entered the inflation cycle, and the potential pressures cannot be ignored. In the past year, the prices of commodities and raw materials have been rising, making it more difficult for enterprises to increase operating costs and make money than before. Only on March 8, most of the domestic commodity futures rose, Shanghai nickel, Shanghai tin, stainless steel rose and stopped, fuel oil rose by more than 12%. Not only that, the price of bulk commodities has been passed on to the consumer side, february food, tobacco and alcohol prices rose by 1.2% month-on-month, of which vegetables, aquatic products, fruits, residence, etc. have risen to varying degrees, in addition to the domestic oil prices rose for five consecutive years, No. 92 gasoline exceeded 8 yuan, many people not only can not afford to travel, taxis in some cities have also begun to charge fuel surcharges.

In this regard, many experts and scholars are rushing to tell each other to warn everyone to prevent inflation: Teng Tai, president of the Wanbo New Economic Research Institute, said, "We have gone through 20 years of low inflation, and now, from an international perspective, the era of low inflation has passed, and mankind is entering a period of global high inflation." In September last year, the Economic Daily published an article: In the context of global inflation, the mainland should focus on controlling the risk of imported inflation. It can be seen that the era of high inflation or is coming, in this context, for the average person, the most intuitive change is the rise in prices, the money in hand is becoming less and less valuable, the original ordinary family five or six hundred a month basic food, now may have to increase hundreds of dollars.

Since inflation comes from printing money, is it not that ordinary people save more money to ensure that cash does not shrink?

Under the premise that ordinary people have few investment channels and limited funds, many people think that saving more money can make life more comfortable. Is that the case? Generally speaking, the interest rate of demand deposits is relatively low, most people will make emergency funds as demand deposits, while the interest rate of regular savings is much higher, state-owned large banks are relatively low for 3 years or about 3.25%, and some village and town banks will give a larger interest rate ratio in order to compete, with an average value of about 4.6% (but 5 years fixed deposit).

However, it is not that saving money is all right, in the calculation of whether saving money is to preserve the value should also take into account the devaluation of the currency, public information shows that in the past 10 years, the average growth rate of M2 is 15.55%, and the average growth rate of GDP is 8.72%. Based on the inflation rate (reflecting the degree of currency depreciation), the average inflation ratio in the past 10 years CPI≈ M2 growth rate - GDP growth rate ≈ 6.83%, based on this, if 1 million deposit banks, 1 million * (4.6% - 6.83%) = -22,300.

Fang Said jun believes that although it is very meaningful to save money at any time, this kind of "saving money" is based on not deliberate, otherwise once the currency depreciates, it will make you mentally unbalanced, so there is no need to do something that you usually want to do because of inflation, because no matter at any time, it is impossible to change the environment of ordinary people's income, and only by constantly appreciating their own value can they slow down the probability of being eroded by wages.

Some people may say that saving money is not enough, then buying a house can certainly be, after all, it is the best anti-inflation method recognized in the past 20 years. According to statistics, in the past 5 years, the national average housing price has risen by 43.4%, by city, the national house price of 10,000 yuan in the county have 103, more than 20,000 / flat cities 22, looking at the decent cities in the country, the down payment threshold has been raised to around 500,000, especially in the first- and second-tier cities where the housing unit price starts from 60,000-70,000, buying a house is able to "double the earning". Although many people have made a lot of money in the past, whether there is such a great potential for appreciation in the future, Fang said that Jun believes that a question mark should be put.

More red flags than rising house prices? 2 o'clock signal, the house or become a burden

Taking the house with a market value of 1 million as an example, according to the prediction of the Middle Finger Institute in 2022, the house price increase of 2-3.5%, the property can appreciate to about 102-104 million, note that this is only superficial data, in addition to many people do not notice the housing expenditure, the common property fee (considering the different charges of different communities, take the average value of 2 yuan / flat / month, that is, the annual consumption of 0.3%), water and electricity heating fees 0.5-1%, mortgage monthly payment of 5%, adding up to 5.8%. Add in 1.5%-2% transaction taxes and 2% intermediary commissions, for a total of 9.8% of the cost.

So calculated, 1 million market value of the house is also held depreciating, 1 million * (3.5% -9.8%) = -6.3 million, so can no longer close their eyes to buy a house, now the housing holding rate is close to saturation, people are no longer as urgent as in the past, on the one hand, the price of housing is strictly controlled by the state, in addition to the traditional self-occupation, opportunistic ways are suppressed, on the other hand, the cost of the process of holding a house under the invasion of inflation will be higher, which is a more dangerous signal than the rise in house prices, It is almost impossible to appreciate the value of wanting to buy a house, and it may end up as a burden on you.

In contrast, buying a house and saving money have a certain depreciation effect, but under the influence of inflation, the price of goods soars, and money is spent quickly.

In the era of high inflation, how do ordinary people cope? Musk's 9-word advice

According to a Wall Street report on March 15, Tesla CEO Musk said that it should have real assets instead of cash: When inflation is high, it is usually better to own physical assets such as real estate or shares of companies that can produce quality products, rather than cash. For Musk's point of view, some people give objections, because from a practical point of view, ordinary people choose to produce high-quality products of the company's stock is relatively complex, need to have a certain investment idea, so it is not suitable for most ordinary people.

In addition, as mentioned above, the overall house price has shown a downward trend, and holding real estate does not mean that it can increase in value, why is it better to hold physical property under inflation? Fang Said jun believes that for our country, can not generalize that all real estate can have a value preservation effect, many remote cities due to the bubble faded and there has been a decline in house prices, but for the hot cities where the population continues to flow, there is no decline, even if the current era of house price rise has passed, but popular cities can still achieve a certain degree of "value preservation", which is the difference between the two.

Fang said that for how ordinary people should face this matter, Musk gave 9 words of advice: physical assets are better than cash. How to understand? In Fang's view, because people's normal demand for life under inflation is continuous, the corresponding enterprises must have supplies to meet people's needs, which cannot be changed no matter how money changes.

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