In the blink of an eye, 2021 is nearing its end. Looking back on this year, there have been many "accidents" in the automotive industry, including the overall growth of the automobile market under factors such as chip shortage and battery shortage, and also the counter-trend of the new energy vehicle market under the same background.
According to data from the China Automobile Association, China's new energy vehicle sales exceeded 300,000 in August, exceeded 350,000 in September, and approached 400,000 in October, reaching 450,000 in November, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year. Under such a ferocious momentum, in the first 11 months of this year, China's new energy vehicle sales have soared to the height of 2.99 million.
What is the concept of 2.99 million vehicles?
It should be known that the sales of new energy vehicles in the same period last year were only 1.109 million units, and at the end of last year, the China Automobile Association's expectations for the annual sales of new energy vehicles this year were only 1.8 million units.
Of course, the actual situation is that in the first half of this year alone, the sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.206 million units. Taking this into account, caucus has subsequently increased the expected sales of new energy vehicles for the whole year to 2.4 million. But the facts have once again proved that the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales is still underestimated. In October this year, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 2.4 million to 2.542 million units.
The cumulative sales of 2.99 million units in November were nearly 600,000 units higher than the adjusted expectations, and from the current situation, if there is no accident, the annual sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 3.4 million, far exceeding previous expectations.
Behind the unexpected growth of new energy vehicles, the progress of technology, the abundance of products and the power of policies have obviously contributed, but in addition, in the context of lack of cores, there is a point that needs to be said, that is, the impact of the chip distribution strategy of car companies on the new energy vehicle market. Some people point out that the surge in new energy vehicles exceeded expectations is precisely because car companies use the right chip distribution strategy.
Under the problem of lack of core
The chip distribution of car companies is inclined to new energy models
This year, most of the car companies are deeply troubled by the lack of cores. Due to the shortage of chips, many car companies have to choose to reduce production, and car companies that are not willing to reduce production have also resorted to various tricks to ensure the delivery of new cars.
For example, it is delivered with temporary chips. In August this year, it was reported that in order to solve the problem that the owner could not pick up the car for a long time, Porsche was planning to use a temporary chip to replace it on some models, and then replace the temporary chip after the chip arrived. Prior to this, Tesla and other car companies have also said that they may use alternative chips to solve the global chip shortage.
Another example is the "reduction" delivery. According to The Understanding of Gaz Automobile, in order to ensure the timely mass production and delivery of new cars, many car companies, including Mercedes-Benz, Cadillac, Ideal Automobile, Xiaopeng Motors, Tesla, etc., have chosen to temporarily "reduce the allocation" of some new cars.
For example, in October this year, due to the epidemic in Malaysia affecting the supply of millimeter-wave radar chips, Ideal Automobile launched a new delivery plan of "first delivery and then reload radar", that is, for users who were originally scheduled to deliver from October to November, they can first deliver a three-radar model with a front forward + 2 rear angle millimeter wave radar, and provide free reloading for users from December to next year's Spring Festival.
Ideal Car "delivery first and then reload radar" delivery plan; image source: Ideal Car APP
Of course, for car companies, whether it is the use of temporary chips or "reduced" delivery, it is a trick, before getting more chips, quality and quantity delivery is obviously more critical. In fact, in order to "grab the core", car companies can be said to have done their best.
Recently, He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Automobile, revealed in the CCTV finance "Dialogue Challenger" program that in order to solve the shortage of millimeter-wave radar chips, he often went to play "flying" to drink to obtain more chip supply.
According to relevant media reports, it is not uncommon for car executives to stay in chip factories this year. For example, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, revealed in May this year that in order to ensure the normal progress of production and operation, the company has always had senior leaders squatting in Shanghai. Great Wall Motors has adopted the same squatting strategy to ensure that chip factories can allocate to them as soon as they have production.
In addition, some car companies have even set up a "core grabbing team", and there are rumors that due to the decline in delivery due to the "lack of core", some car companies even purchase chips at high prices on the black market, and the chip purchase price is far more than hundreds of times the normal price.
Since it is so difficult to "grab the core", then for how to use the chips that have been painstakingly "grabbed", that is, what kind of chip distribution strategy to use, car companies naturally have to consider and decide carefully.
From a practical point of view, in the case of limited chips on hand, many car companies have decided to give priority to chips to models with higher profits and better sales, because this is conducive to ensuring their own profitability and retaining consumers.
Car companies like Renault and Nissan are doing just that. Earlier this year, people familiar with the matter said nissan prioritized supplying limited chips to the two best-selling models in each major market. In June, GM also said that it expected profits in the first half of the year to far exceed previous expectations, in part because GM North America allocated chips to high-profit trucks, increasing truck production.
Another obvious phenomenon is that car companies tend to bet their chip inventory on the production of new energy models.
Of course, this is not due to the small number of chips required for new energy vehicles. In fact, the opposite is true. According to industry insiders, the number of chips in traditional fuel vehicles is generally about 500-600, while the number of chips for new energy vehicles and models equipped with higher-end technologies such as automatic driving can reach about 1000-1200, and the number is still growing. In other words, the number of chips required for new energy vehicles is higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles.
Under this circumstance, the reason why car companies distribute limited chips to new energy vehicles is inseparable from the drive of profits.
According to the data, the proportion of BYD new energy vehicle sales has been soaring this year, of which in November, BYD's new energy vehicle sales reached 91,219 units, an increase of 241.77% over the same period last year, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 92.8%, which was further increased from before, while the proportion of fuel vehicles declined again.
In response to this situation, some insiders pointed out that the shortage of chips prompted BYD to give priority to the supply of new energy models with most of its chips, while discontinuing some of its fuel models, the reason is simple, new energy models are more profitable.
Of course, there is also the credit for the double points policy.
Under the dual credit policy, car companies can earn higher points for producing a pure electric vehicle that meets the endurance standard. The more fuel vehicles are sold, the more negative points there are, and the greater the cost of offsetting negative points afterwards. In the case that the profit of the car has been reduced, the car company is naturally unwilling to sell a fuel car at the same time, and then spend money to buy positive points to eliminate the negative points of selling fuel vehicles, after all, in this way, there is little profit left.
Although the incident is "accidental"
However, it is expected to have a long-term favorable impact
In summary, the chip shortage superimposed on the double integration policy, the chip distribution of car companies to new energy models, affected by this, car companies new energy production and sales compared with fuel vehicles have achieved better performance. It should be pointed out that compared with the progress of technology and the abundance of products, the shortage of chips can be described as an accidental factor. So does this mean that it has only short-term effects?
This does not seem to be the case.
First of all, it should be pointed out that the lack of cores cannot be completely solved in the short term. Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, recently said that in the first half of next year, the pressure of China's automobile market to be restricted by the lack of cores is still relatively large, and before the end of next year, the chip supply will reach a tight balance. He Xiaopeng also mentioned in the aforementioned program that in the current environment, it is expected to take more than half a year to solve the problem of chip shortage.
From this point of view, the resources of car companies will still be inclined to new energy models, and therefore continue to be good for the new energy vehicle market.
In fact, even if this situation is put aside, the chip distribution strategy of car companies this year is expected to have a long-term favorable impact on the subsequent development of the new energy vehicle market.
As we all know, in recent years, car companies are constantly strengthening the layout of the field of new energy vehicles, but based on the consideration of profitability and many other aspects, the strength of the layout is not conservative, but it always reveals some hesitation. This lack of core dilemma is equivalent to "adding a whip" to these companies, so that they have to make further choices and put into action.
When car companies put limited chips into new energy models, the resources of other links in the entire industry chain will also be inclined to new energy models. In order to make chip investment as high as possible to obtain output, car companies have strengthened product innovation, related capacity construction and follow-up marketing efforts, etc., and at the same time as the layout of car companies, the supply chain has also moved.
Judging from the results, it is clear that car companies have tasted the sweetness.
The Association pointed out that in November, the new energy passenger car market diversified, SAIC and GAC performed relatively strongly, and the highlights of traditional car companies were outstanding. According to the agency's data, there were 14 companies with wholesale sales exceeding 10,000 units in the month, a significant increase over the previous period, including SAIC-GM-Wuling (50,141 units), Great Wall Motor (16,136 units), GAC Aian (15,035 units), Chery Automobile (14,482 units), Geely Automobile (13,090 units), SAIC Passenger Cars (12,225 units), SAIC-Volkswagen (11,986 units), FAW-Volkswagen (10,705 units), etc.
Such a performance undoubtedly gives a reassurance to the car companies that have invested a lot of human, financial and material resources, "consumers will buy it", "the investment is rewarded", which further strengthens their pace of accelerating the layout of new energy vehicles. In fact, from the current point of view, almost all car companies have increased the layout of new energy vehicles, and the intensity is getting bigger and bigger. Although the reasons for this cannot be simply attributed to the influence of this factor, at least car companies have been encouraged, not hit.
In addition to car companies, consumers naturally appreciate the good of new energy vehicles.
The Association pointed out that the supply of new energy vehicles has increased, whether it is a new force or a traditional car company, it has recently launched competitive pure electric products, coupled with the continuous expansion of production capacity, effectively catering to the needs of customers with new experiences.
Of course, new energy vehicles are not perfect, not only the good side, but consumers are more and more concerned and willing to buy new energy vehicles, which is particularly critical and far-reaching, after all, no matter how excellent the product is, how advanced the technology is, no consumer is willing to try, it can be said to be standing still.
In short, with the abundance of new energy vehicle products, consumers can choose more product objects, in addition to the rapid popularization of charging piles, coupled with changes in consumer concepts and other reasons, consumers' acceptance of new energy vehicles has become higher and higher, "endogenous power" is growing, and the dependence of the new energy vehicle market on policies is gradually decreasing.
Perhaps because of this, in the case that the chip shortage may continue and the subsidy for new energy vehicles will once again decline by 30%, the industry is still full of confidence that new energy vehicles will continue to grow rapidly in 2022.
At the 2022 China Auto Market Development Forecast Summit and Investment Cooperation Conference held recently, the China Automobile Association predicted that the total sales volume of China's automobiles in 2022 would reach 27.5 million units, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year, of which the sales of new energy vehicles were 5 million units, an increase of 47% year-on-year.
Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, has also publicly stated recently that by 2022, the sales of new energy vehicles will further increase to 5 million, "which is still limited by the forecast of battery supply, chip supply and production capacity restrictions, without these restrictions, the demand alone may be higher."
Cover image source: WEY brand official website
Open the Magic Wheel Online 4S Shop now
Sweep to add business consulting:
Article from: Gestapo Auto Community
Copyright Notice: This article is reproduced online, and the copyright belongs to the original author. The reproduced article does not mean that this official account endorses its views and is responsible for its authenticity. Due to the large number of reprints in this article, it is impossible to confirm the true original author, so only the source of the reprint is indicated. In addition to the pictures indicating the source in this article, the rest are from the network public channels, can not identify its source, such as involving copyright issues, please contact us in time, we will delete the content to ensure your rights and interests!