Author/Baked bun under the stars
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Typography/Fried liver under the stars
The automotive circle has not been peaceful recently, and an incident involving chassis parts has successfully attracted the author's attention.
Great Wall Motor (601633) held a unique press conference and released the future-oriented coffee intelligent 2.0 intelligent wire control chassis, which is expected to achieve mass production in the following year (2023). Doesn't it look like some cyberpunk?
Image: In-line chassis released by Great Wall
Such a cool in-line chassis is more than two words, it is reported that it can support L4 level (fully automated) and above autonomous driving. It essentially changed the construction logic of the chassis, and the core execution systems of steering, braking, shifting, and throttle were all mechanical structures and performed their duties. Now the Great Wall is ready to transform the mechanical structure into a wire-controlled structure, each structure coordinated by a unified brain (central processing unit).
It's the mule and the horse, and we'll pull it out for a walk in two years.
But no matter what, the cars of the future will definitely develop towards intelligence. The German government approved the world's first Level 3 autonomous driving operation this month, which will provide a reference for other countries and regions to formulate high-level autonomous driving safety regulations and promote the rapid development of autonomous vehicles worldwide.
Riding on the east wind of intelligence, what auto parts will be abandoned by the times, and what auto parts will usher in a golden decade, all need to be viewed with a dynamic eye.
Today, the author will take you to a coil of wire-controlled chassis to see if there is a treasure on this track.
First, the cake is big and sweet, do you want to eat it?
The word chassis is already familiar to everyone, but the wire control chassis may be relatively unfamiliar. So let's start with a simple science popularization. There are five core systems in the chassis by wire: steering, braking, shifting, throttle and suspension. We know that the internal operating system of autonomous driving is the process of first sensing, then decision-making, and finally execution. The chassis belongs to the actuator. It can be said that the wire control chassis is mainly prepared for L3 level (semi-automatic driving) and above level of automatic driving.
Image: In-line chassis composition
But why does it have to be a wire-controlled chassis? Because of the high level of automatic driving, it is inseparable from the rapid response and precise execution of the chassis actuator to match the speed of perception and decision-making.
Under this high standard of strict requirements, the chassis by wire has become the first choice: when the driver makes a series of actions such as braking and throttle, the vehicle can respond faster, and due to the cancellation of a large number of mechanical connection devices, energy loss and maintenance costs are also small.
Picture: Whether equipped with a line to control the impact of the movement on energy consumption
Killing three birds with one stone, the wire-controlled chassis is even more dazzling on the stage of electric vehicle intelligence (a revolution to free hands).
Having said this for half a day, let's quantitatively look at how big the market for the future wire control chassis is. From the overall point of view, according to the research data given by various institutions, assuming that the chassis system accounts for 10% of the cost of the car, according to the penetration rate of smart cars, in the next five years, the market size of China's wire control chassis will grow at a rate of more than 30%. At the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan", the market size will be close to 50 billion yuan. The market space is still quite broad.
Photo: Domestic wire control chassis industry scale forecast
Second, there is a but in everything
As mentioned above, the market size of the entire wire control chassis is growing rapidly, and this year is the inflection point of the wire control chassis.
However, players who enter this industry will find that the advantages of overseas regular armies are still very obvious, especially for the system of gear shifting, throttle, and suspension, which has developed a relatively early time. (Related reading: treasures in auto parts, small and beautiful tracks, big and sweet opportunities)
For example, the mass production time of wire-controlled shifting and wire-controlled throttle is the 90s of the last century, especially the wire-controlled throttle, which has long been popularized to thousands of households, the market penetration rate is high, the competition pattern is stable, and the industry has entered a mature period. The big brother of auto parts that is familiar to the mainland and Bosch, with the advantage of starting early, has formed many years of know-how technology and experience accumulation, and firmly grasps the core technology in its own hands. Domestic players with line control throttle (such as Ningbo Gaofa and Aolian Electronics) have a relatively low sense of existence.
Therefore, the two subdivision tracks of online control of throttle and gear shift, domestic players want to achieve cornering overtaking, the author boldly asserts, there is considerable difficulty.
Does that mean that the track of the wire-controlled chassis does not have any chances at all? Not really, otherwise I wouldn't have been able to write this article. After research, the author believes that the line control movement may give investors and domestic players a glimmer of hope. Why, there are three main reasons:
Schematic diagram of line control (excerpt from advanced automotive technology)
1. Line control movement began to mass production in China, according to the author's analysis, its penetration rate has increased from 1.6% last year to 2.5% this year (estimated), the three new forces of the car have begun to assemble the line control movement, the supplier is mainly Bosch (just like the Internet can not avoid BAT and TMD), Bosch's market share has exceeded 90%, belongs to the typical rush runners, CR3 is 96%;
2. Technology is still facing greater uncertainty, and it is possible to move from decentralization to integration in the future, providing opportunities for latecomers. For example, there are currently two technical solutions of Two-Box and One-Box, and there are more Two-Box on the market, but one-box is small in weight, low in cost, better in performance, and can be integrated, which is the trend of the times. Domestic players such as 603596 and Asia Pacific (002284) have begun to mass-produce One-box on a small scale last year, and Chery and Geely are reportedly customers downstream of Bethel. By the way, Bethel was the first domestic company to have a One-box solution;
3. The market growth rate is fast, although the current penetration rate is low, but there has been a trend of accelerated penetration, according to the value of bicycles 2000-2500 yuan to calculate, the next 5 years compound annual growth rate is expected to exceed 45%, the industry development is very rapid.
3. Summary
Germany has approved the world's first level 3 automatic driving operation, installed on mercedes-Benz, became the first person to eat crabs, and also provided reference for other countries.
In this context, the wire control chassis, as an indispensable component of high-end automatic driving, rides on the East Wind and is favored by the majority of investors. In the track of online control chassis, the line control movement is particularly eye-catching because of factors such as late start, technical uncertainty, and domestic mass production. In the future, domestic players in this subdivision track will have the best chance to challenge traditional leaders such as Bosch.
After all, where there is change, there is no chance.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.