As we all know, in the past two years, smart phone shipments have been in a state of decline, but overall, the global smart phone shipment base is still huge, as of now, smart phones are still the world's largest consumer electronics market, in the semiconductor chip application scenarios, occupies a pivotal position.
However, for the semiconductor industry, in the case of stagnant smartphone shipments, new markets are urgently needed to promote the growth of the semiconductor market. JW insights believes that automotive electronics has become a relay player in the smartphone market and will become the main driving force for the growth of the semiconductor market; especially driven by new energy vehicles, the demand for automotive chips will increase significantly.
Smartphones are stagnant: new energy vehicles will grow more than 3.5 times in four years
Recently, according to Strategy Analytics, global smartphone shipments are expected to increase by 7% month-on-month in Q4 2021, and annual shipments will reach 1.34 billion units. According to its points out, shipments of the entire smartphone market in Q3 are lower than expected.
(Source: Strategy Analytics)
Looking ahead to 2022, Strategy Analytics data shows that next year's global smartphone shipments are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. According to Jiwei Consulting, Apple's shipments of smart phones and tablets, computers and other products will face correction pressure next year.
JW insights believes that although global smartphone shipments will pick up next year compared to 2021, the entire smartphone market has fallen into a stagflation state, especially the current 5G promotion has entered the final stage. According to domestic data, since March this year, 5G mobile phones have accounted for more than 70% of domestic smartphone shipments, especially in November, this data has reached 82%, which means that 5G has promoted the growth of smartphone shipments.
At the same time, at a time when the smartphone market is stuck in stagnation and "brand infighting", the new energy vehicle market is rising rapidly. From the perspective of the automotive supply chain, the most talked about in the past two years is the lack of chips in the automotive industry, and even led to many terminal manufacturers shutting down factories due to lack of chips.
According to Deloitte analysis data, global new energy vehicle sales exceeded 6 million units in 2021, and will maintain an annual growth rate of 37% in the next four years, and by 2025, global new energy vehicle sales will reach 21.42 million units, compared with 6.08 million units in 2021, an increase of 352.3%.
Global new energy vehicle sales and forecasts from 2018 to 2025 (Source: Deloitte Analytics)
Jiwei Consulting believes that for enterprises at the end of the electronic supply chain, the new energy vehicle industry chain has become an inevitable trend and will become a must for many enterprises in the electronic supply chain. Many consumer electronics industry chain enterprises have long laid out the new energy vehicle market.
According to incomplete statistics from Jiwei Consulting, at least more than 50 mobile phone concept stocks have actively expanded their automotive business, such as BOE A, TCL, Shentianma A, Luxshare Precision, Lens Technology, Goertek, LingyiZhi manufacturing, Wingtech Technology, Desai Battery, Sunwoda, Xinwei Communications, Shuobeide, Guanghong Technology, Dianlian Technology, Dongmu Shares, Shenglan Shares, Lianchuang Electronics, OFILM, Dafu Technology, Chunxing Seiko, Helitai, Jingyan Technology, Anjie Technology, Changxin Technology, Laibao Hi-Tech, etc.
The most typical, taking electric connection technology and Shenglan shares as an example, the main business of the two is mainly consumer electronic connectors and other products, but both have made rapid progress in the automotive market, especially the electric connection technology, in 2021, the automotive business product revenue will account for a certain proportion of the company's overall revenue.
In addition, in the field of mobile phone chips, many A-share companies have also entered the automotive market, such as MCU manufacturers, memory chip manufacturers, security chip manufacturers, power management chip manufacturers, etc., such as Weier shares, Gigabit Innovation, Huiting Technology, Wingtech Technology, Quanzhi Technology, Geke Micro, Zhongying Electronics, Zhuosheng Micro, Jingfang Technology, Changdian Technology and so on.
As mentioned above, in the past two years, the sales volume of new energy vehicles has grown rapidly, resulting in insufficient production capacity preparation of chip manufacturers, coupled with the impact of the epidemic, which has further seriously lacked automotive semiconductor production capacity. As far as the chip industry is concerned, in the view of JW insights, as the smart phone market falls into a stagnant state, the automobile market has become a new outlet, which will promote the chip industry to continue to maintain rapid growth.
The demand for new energy vehicle chips is huge, and relaying smartphones to help semiconductor growth
According to Deloitte analysis data, in 2017, the chip capacity of each traditional fuel vehicle was only 580, while the chip capacity of new energy vehicles was only 813, but by 2022, the chip capacity of traditional fuel vehicles will reach 934, while the chip capacity of new energy vehicles will reach 1459.
Number of chips per car in China, 2012-2022 (Source: Deloitte Analytics)
JW insights believes that as new energy vehicles become more "intelligent", such as digitalization, automation, electrification, etc., this will lead to more diversification and diversification of their demand for chips, and will also promote the rapid growth of chip use in a single car. For example, intelligent fields such as radar systems, vision systems, and audio entertainment systems will have a stronger demand for chips.
Current automotive chips include control chips (CPU/GPU/FPGA, etc.), memory chips (DRAM/NAND/NOR Flash, etc.), MCU chips, CMOS chips, V2X RF chips, VCSEL chips, touch chips, display chips, LED chips, MOSFET/IGBT, ultrasonic/millimeter wave chips, PMIC power management chips, and so on. Taking cmOS chips as an example, with intelligent driving and intelligent acceleration of cars, the demand for CMOS in a single car is very strong.
According to Deloitte analysis data, the size of the consumer electronics market chip in 2020 and the chip size of the automotive market are the same as 49 billion US dollars, but by 2021, the scale of the automotive market chip will exceed the size of the consumer electronics market for the first time, and by 2025, it will maintain a growth rate of 10.3% per year, becoming the fastest growing chip application market, when the market size will reach 80 billion US dollars!
Global chip industry market size in 2020-2025 (Data source: Mordor Inteligence)
According to the data of a number of research institutions, it is expected that by 2025, the market size of on-board power semiconductors will reach 16.4 billion US dollars, with a compound growth rate of 12.5% in 5 years; the market size of on-board sensors will reach 52.4 billion US dollars (camera 14 billion, lidar 6.3 billion, and other sensors 32.1 billion), with a compound growth rate of 19.1%; the market size of computing platforms will reach 79.5 billion, with a compound growth rate of 70%. In addition, MCUs, analog ICs, storage, PCBs, etc. will also have high-single-digit growth.
Taking the car camera as an example, according to TSR, the car camera market space will grow to 12.5 billion US dollars in 2024, of which nearly 60% is a high-value perception camera, which shows that there will be a large market demand for CIS chips.
JW insights believes that in the case of stagnant growth of smart phones and other related consumer electronics, there is an urgent need for a new market to promote the growth of the semiconductor chip market, and the rapid rise in sales of new energy vehicles will become a new explosive market for semiconductor chips, in addition to chips, it will also drive the growth of market demand for various electronic accessories, in short, the new energy market has relayed smart phones and become a new application scenario for the growth of the semiconductor chip market scale!
(Proofreading/Nagging)