2021 is coming to an end. This year, the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars and L2-level intelligent passenger cars has crossed the 20% mark in some months, indicating that new energy vehicles and intelligent vehicles have entered the stage of mass application.
In the context of the intelligent electric vehicle Volkswagen, on December 18, 2021, the 2022 Electric View Conference hosted by Electric Vehicle Observer and Cybercar was held online. The theme of this congress was "Trends · Scene · Cases", 15 guests talked about the 10 major trends of intelligent electric vehicles, the development status of 8 fields, and 6 case companies shared the first-line practice.
This forum brings in-depth thinking from industry observers and the methodology of typical enterprises, hoping to bring new perspectives and enlightenment to enterprises in the industry.
1. 10 major trends of intelligent electric vehicles
In the first part of the conference, Qiu Kaijun, founder and editor-in-chief of Electric Vehicle Observer, summarized the 10 major trends of smart electric vehicles.
(1) Intelligent electric vehicles have entered the stage of popularization. Through specific data and cases, he showed that electric vehicles have become the new joy of the tide play crowd, the cars of young people in small towns, and the convenient and economical travel tools for middle-aged and elderly women.
(2) Intelligent driving landing. Qiu Kaijun believes that autonomous driving has ushered in the first year of commercialization, and companies have begun to look for scenes to land. And the more high-end models are, the more they pursue high-end automatic driving functions.
(3) New marketing of intelligent electric vehicles. In Qiu Kaijun's view, direct sales have become an important trend in the marketing of intelligent electric vehicles, and in addition, circle marketing has also become an important way to influence consumers to buy cars.
(4) Supply chain expansion and upgrading. The rapid development of intelligent electric vehicles has brought about crazy demand in the field of industrial chain. Similarly, there are chips. Downstream enterprises' participation in the supply chain has become an important way to hedge costs and seek supply security.
(5) Global collaboration. Qiu Kaijun believes that there is no contradiction between autonomy and controllability and globalization. Of course, autonomous controllability is good, but excessive pursuit of autonomous controllability may also increase costs or damage competitiveness.
(6) Infrastructure enters the second half. Unlike the rapid growth of sales of new energy vehicles, public charging facilities have only slightly improved, and business models are still groping. The problem of private charging piles bringing about the increase in the capacity of the community is still serious. The contradiction between charging demand and power supply has become more prominent.
(7) Capital pursuit. In Qiu Kaijun's view, a large amount of capital in the new energy industry chain is also a relatively profitable industry in the secondary market. And the big investment opportunities for smart cars have just begun.
(8) Cross-industry technology integration and innovation. Qiu Kaijun believes that the current cross-industry integration of automobiles has just begun. Qiu Kaijun proposed that the use of cross-industry innovative technology is also the core competitiveness point of view of future intelligent electric vehicle enterprises.
(9) Double carbon forced. In Qiu Kaijun's view, "double carbon" means policy dividends. In the competition between traditional car companies and electric vehicle companies, policy dividends have made the balance of victory constantly tilt towards electric vehicles.
(10) Enterprise organization is intelligent. Qiu Kaijun believes that car companies are transforming to the research and development, production, sales and service of intelligent electric vehicles, and the talent structure and management methods are also facing great changes. What enterprises need to do is no longer to manage, but to empower employees and let employees release their creativity to the greatest extent.
2. 8 guests shared industry ideas
In the field of intelligent electric popularization, the data given by Li Jinyong, president of the New Energy Vehicle Branch of the Automobile Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce and chairman of the founder of China Overseas Electric, shows that users are willing to pay high, 40% of consumers are willing to pay for fully autonomous driving functions, and more than half of consumers are willing to pay for OTA upgrades. Li Jinyong believes that the downward trend of autonomous driving prices has been clear, which has laid the foundation for its downward popularization.
In the field of smart driving landing, Roland Berger partner Yuan Wenbo pointed out that Chinese consumers' preference for Robotaxi is much higher than that of some traditional developed countries such as the United States or the United Kingdom. China's development of autonomous driving has a better market environment. In the next five years, China's autonomous driving penetration rate will increase rapidly, and high-level autonomous driving will achieve mass production, and there is a trend of local first-tier suppliers replacing overseas suppliers in the field of autonomous driving in China. Chinese companies began to look for landing scenarios to promote commercialization.
In terms of new marketing of intelligent electric vehicles, Zhou Lijun, president and chief analyst of E-Car Research Institute, believes that according to the characteristics of population structure and economic development, Chinese users are showing four major characteristics: the user level shows a trend of new four modernizations (middle-aged, feminine, single and elderly); product diversification (home, transportation, play, sports, intelligence); channel three-dimensional (4S stores, business circle stores, experience stores, community stores and car pick-up shops); marketing refinement (digitalization, intelligence, focus on experience, scenes, etc.).
In the supply chain expansion and upgrading section, Zhu Yulong, the founder of Automotive Electronics Design, brought his thoughts on the industrial chain. He believes that the development of smart electric vehicles is bringing a series of changes to the industrial chain: not only to promote the penetration of batteries, chips, fast charging and high-power semiconductors, but also to bring about differences in power battery business models, changes in electronic and electrical architecture, and computing power chips will become the next core bottleneck.
In the second half of the infrastructure sector, Huang Shan, co-founder of "Electric Vehicle Observer", believes that public charging is still not profitable, "investment is tens of thousands, and income is calculated by gross.". At the same time, the energy companies represented by BP and Sinopec, the main engine factories represented by new forces, and local funds have entered in a big way, and the market elimination game is accelerating.
In the field of capital, Cui Yan, chief analyst of the automotive industry at Huaxi Securities, analyzed several major changes in the market value of car companies. First of all, Toyota, which had a market value of more than 100 billion US dollars 10 years ago, has been replaced by Tesla with a market value of trillions; among Chinese enterprises, the progress of new forces and private car companies in the field of electrification and intelligence should not be underestimated, and they continue to promote the upward development of independent brands. Cui Yan believes that in 5 years, no industry will achieve such high growth as new energy vehicles, and in 10 years, it will still be a growth industry. "The next 10 years should be a golden 10 years for investment in the entire industrial chain of smart electric vehicles."
In the "double carbon" forced sector, Liu Bin, chief expert of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center and deputy director of the China Automotive Strategy and Policy Research Center, believes that according to the dual carbon target, the automobile industry should achieve a peak of carbon emissions around 2030. Liu Bin put forward a point of view, control the products, tax incentives for buyers to reduce carbon, and force car companies to reduce emissions. In addition, he also mentioned that the cost of fuel vehicles should be increased, and recycling should be used to reduce carbon emissions.
In the intelligent organization management section, Hu Saixiong, winner of Huawei's "Blue Blood Ten Jie" award, put forward the view that without intelligent organization, smart cars cannot happen. The top-down control of traditional enterprises makes it difficult for the top management to create scarce things, and at the same time, it is impossible to quickly perceive the market, and it will slowly become disconnected from the market.
Hu Saixiong believes that to adapt to the development of intelligent electric vehicles, through open source, distributed management, and flexible flexible organizations at the end, through learning to reduce individual mistakes, and ultimately adapt to deal with complex businesses, rather than controlling the organization itself.
3. 6 major cases show landing experience
Nezha Automobile is one of the representative enterprises of civilian intelligent electric vehicles. Zhou Jiang, president of Nezha Trading Company, believes that what is really lacking in the popular market of intelligent electric vehicles is whether car companies can bring users good products with affordable prices and high intelligence. Nezha put forward the concept of "equal rights in science and technology", so that the boss's surname can afford to buy and trust. In Zhou Jiang's view, intelligent electric vehicles are a track without an end, and it is impossible to build a conclusive conclusion, and there is no way to predict the extent to which science and technology will develop in the future.
Hongjing Intelligent Driving is a representative enterprise of the intelligent driving landing plate. Liu Feilong, founder and CEO of Hongjing Intelligent Driving, introduced the source of their competitiveness. Liu Feilong said that the rapid development of Hongjing Intelligent Driving has benefited from their system factory, and software and hardware optimize the design of each other. Reduce hardware costs by optimizing software, develop efficient tool chains, and create synergistic advantages in addition to hardware and software. Through the common software architecture and the use of technical extensibility, we create a product that can be upgraded for customers, which meets the one-stop needs of users.
In the field of supply chain, the representative enterprise invited by the conference is Hive Energy. Yang Hongxin, chairman and CEO of Hive Energy, believes that the development of China's new energy vehicles has encountered a rare historical opportunity in a hundred years, and it is necessary to seize the first-mover advantage, seize the fleeting window period before the transformation of Europe, the United States and Japan (parameter 丨 picture) is completed, and the production capacity layout is quickly done, and the construction of production capacity and product iteration and supply chain are completed at the fastest speed. Therefore, they proposed the "Lead Bee 600" strategy and seized the opportunity to become an industry-leading, global company.
In the second half of the infrastructure, the conference invited Zhida Technology. Huang Zhiming, chairman of Zhida Technology, believes that to promote the construction of private charging piles in the community, it is still necessary to find a win-win business model for investors, operators, properties and users. In addition, Zhida Technology has also set its sights on the countryside, and solar + charging also has a broad space.
In the capital pursuit sector, the conference invited BAIC Production and Investment. Jia Guanghong, deputy general manager of BAIC Production and Investment, talked about their investment practices in the field of smart electric vehicles. BAIC Production and Investment will not pay special attention to short-term valuation, but will deduce forward according to the development logic of the industry. In the early stage of industry development, BAIC production and investment, half of the investment is related to "electricity", battery motor electronic control field, support some of these companies to complete the listing. Later, in terms of intelligent networking, from the system to invest in sensors, controllers and other enterprises, and even incubated themselves, and now 14 companies have been listed in the investment enterprises.
In the "double carbon" backlash plate, the conference invited Envision Group to come and share. Qiu Lin, chief scientist of zero-carbon products of Envision Technology Group, believes that enterprise carbon reduction, first of all, to find out the bottom of the family, to carry out carbon accounting for the enterprise itself; second, to specify carbon reduction targets; the third step, the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction programs, specific measures are generally to improve energy efficiency in the whole value chain, reduce carbon emissions, market-oriented procurement of green electricity, purchase of green electricity vouchers, etc.; fourth, the development of negative emission plans, such as afforestation; and finally achieve carbon neutrality goals. In the field of electric vehicle manufacturing, it is first necessary to consider green manufacturing, and car factories use energy-saving and carbon-reducing methods; the second is to produce more electric vehicles; the third is to use green and use green electricity to reduce emissions.
The sharing of 15 guests of the 2022 Dianguan Conference comprehensively interpreted the current situation and trend of the development of Intelligent Electric Vehicles in China, and provided valuable reference opinions for the development of the industry and enterprises.