Mysteel's interpretation: The freshly baked report has failed to improve the atmosphere of the deserted oil and fat market

According to the USDA's December supply and demand report, U.S. soybeans for 2021/2022 were not adjusted, and ending stocks were 340 million bushels, unchanged from the November estimate. Global 2021/2022 soybean year-end inventories are downgraded by 1.78 million tonnes to 102 million tonnes to 103.78 million tonnes in November. Soybean year-end inventories for 2020/2021 are estimated at 99.81 million tonnes and 100.11 million tonnes in November. Argentina's soybean production for 2021/2022 is estimated at 49.5 million tonnes, compared to an estimated 49.5 million tonnes in the November report. Brazil's soybean production for 2021/2022 is estimated at 144 million tonnes, compared to 144 million tonnes in the November report. Judging from the data adjusted by the USDA's December supply and demand report, it is mainly due to the adjustment of the supply and demand balance of Chinese soybeans, resulting in a downward adjustment in global soybean stocks. China's 2021/2022 soybean production is estimated at 16.4 million tonnes, compared to a 2.6 million mt reduction of 19 million tonnes in the November report, while a 1 million tonnes reduction in domestic soybean crushing resulted in ending stocks of 34.08 million tonnes, down 1.61 million tonnes from the November estimate. Since the market's estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks for December 2021/2022 was 352 million pups prior to the release of the report, higher than the USDA's unchanged 340 million bushels, the bears fell short of expectations, causing the U.S. soybean futures price to rebound slightly to 1268.5 cents/bushel.

Data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board MPOB showed that Malaysia's palm oil stocks were 1.817 million tonnes in November, down 0.96% from 1.835 million tonnes in October. Malaysia produced 1.635 million tonnes of palm oil in November, down 5.3% from 1.726 million tonnes in October. Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were 1.468 million tonnes, up 3.3% from 1.42 million tonnes in October.

Compared with the estimated data before the release of the report, Malaysia's palm oil production in November did not meet the expected increase but showed a decline, and the export volume was not as strong as the estimated data, and the growth rate of palm oil exports in November given by major shipping agencies was 8.2%-13.8%, and the export volume was higher than the 1.468 million tons given by the MPOB. As well as an increase in palm oil import data, there was finally only a slight decline in Malaysia's palm oil stocks in November.

In terms of domestic soybean oil, according to the survey of mysteel agricultural products on the country's major oil mills, it is expected that next week in the 50th week of 2021 (December 11 to December 17), the operating rate of domestic oil mills is expected to decline slightly, and the crushing capacity of soybeans in oil mills is expected to be 1.8884 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.64%. Then the production of soybean oil will also decline slightly. However, the recent market transaction is very light, most of the factories have long been sold to complete the near month position, the forward position because of the Y15 price difference is large and the market acceptance is not high, do not dare to report the forward basis, in addition to the previous factory sales of the 2-5 months 05 + 700 contract, most of the factories have a large number of contracts have not been sold, the market view of the basis is weak, so do not dare to purchase a large number of forward contracts, mostly in the form of with-use and supplementary spot, However, in the early stage, the terminal had a large number of stockpiles, resulting in a relatively light market atmosphere in the peak season of soybean oil consumption.

In terms of domestic palm oil, in the short term, due to the firm price of palm oil in the outer plate and the high quotation of the place of origin, the import profit is seriously inverted and cannot be affected by the purchase of ships, the price of palm oil is still upside down with soybean oil, but compared with mapan palm oil, the price of domestic palm oil is the first to weaken. Due to the return of the near delivery period, coupled with the decline in price higher than soybean oil consumption, the P2201 basis showed a weakening trend, as of December 10, the 24 degree basis in South China fell to 01+230, and the individual price was at 01+200, but it was still very poor.

This article originated from Shanghai Steel Union Agricultural Products Network