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Is it difficult for Weilai to meet the "second growth curve"?

On December 2, at the NIO House in the Ideal International Building in Zhongguancun, the staff vacated the best booth on the first floor overnight for the ET7 pure electric sedan, which is the fourth model since the establishment of NIO.

Is it difficult for Weilai to meet the "second growth curve"?

After waiting for 1 year, the first batch of subscribers will meet with the car.

ET7 is not only a product for Weilai to reaffirm the positioning of the luxury brand, but also a window for the new car manufacturer to show the outside world the determination to tackle L4 level autonomous driving in the context of the fierce internal roll of L2 level assisted driving.

Is it difficult for Weilai to meet the "second growth curve"?

(Figure, Hefei Nio production base, ET7 full assembly off the production line, will be in Q1 22 years and a year ago to meet with the subscribers a year ago)

From the workmanship and materials, it is not difficult to see the luxury positioning of ET7. Its entire range comes standard with Microfiber microfiber velvet roofs, Nappa leather premium interiors, and wooden trim pieces that were not covered by previous models.

Is it difficult for Weilai to meet the "second growth curve"?

According to Li Bin, the opponent of ET7 is not an electric car at the same price, but a medium- and high-end model in the BBA.

It is understood that in 2021, car companies are plagued by chip supply, and BBA has raised the price of products, and wholesale to 4S stores is no exception. The lowest price of the BMW 7 Series "Cai Edition" is about 765,000, while the ET7 top match is less than 550,000.

Echoing the debut of ET7, it is the gradual withdrawal of the introduction of ES8 3 years ago.

Is it difficult for Weilai to meet the "second growth curve"?

In the past 12 months, the monthly sales of ES8 have not exceeded 2,000 units. Under extreme circumstances, such as the shortage of supply in October, the delivery volume of ES8 fell to more than 200 units in that month.

The iteration of semiconductors has accelerated the iteration speed of smart cars, almost like smart phones 10 years ago, into the elimination process of changing the "core" in half a year and doubling the performance in 2 years.

Due to the "old" design of the electrical architecture, the ES8 uses Mobileye's EyeQ4 driver assistance kit, which was abandoned by many OEMs. Some insiders believe that the "Weilai NOP death case" in August this year may be directly related to the "obsolescence" of ES8 hardware.

Charles Handy, known as the "philosopher of management," wrote in The Second Curve. Any business or organization is suitable for the "S-shaped curve" – hidden behind the persistent and smooth high growth is an irreversible "downhill road".

Is it difficult for Weilai to meet the "second growth curve"?

The only thing WEIlai wants to be able to resist the "curse" of the S-shaped curve is innovation.

The roof is equipped with lidar, and the interior is made of wooden panels, which is not called innovation; in high-priced products, the addition of "close to the people" option, old users do not feel humiliated, called innovation.

Only new models, the kind that go in quantity.

In the 2021 Q3 earnings call, Li Bin revealed that three new cars based on the NT2.0 platform are already on the road and meet the public at the right time.

The bad news is: traffic aura, not good. "Cost of sales" best reflects a company's competitive landscape in the industry.

From 2021 onwards, Weilai, which "does not lack money on the account", seems to have made a generous move, and the cost of sales has risen steadily.

Q2 cost of sales was 6.874 billion yuan, up 101.5% year-on-year; Q3 cost of sales was 7.812 billion yuan, up 98.3% year-on-year.

It should be known that in the whole year of 2020, the sales cost of Weilai is less than 4 billion yuan. Even UBS analysts are curious:

"Sales management expenses seem to be more, but R&D expenses have not increased rapidly?"

Li Bin explained that at this stage, there are many "new entrants", and the construction of sales services and power exchange networks has entered the investment stage, so the expenditure has increased.

The ripple-style "pyramid scheme" that Weilai was once proud of can no longer give investors imagination space, and in the second half, the real Internet advertising and traditional funnel model are the final methodology for Weilai to dive into consumer cognition.

Luxury pure electric competition will become more and more large. In November, GM's luxury brand Cadillac launched a pure electric LYRIQ priced at 439,700, which coincided with the top version of ES6.

Is it difficult for Weilai to meet the "second growth curve"?

BMW iX 3 sales exceeded 1,000 units, Xiaopeng G9 will be delivered in Q3 next year - pure electric medium and large SUV roll intensified, consumers have more options, not to mention, or the traditional OEMs to reduce the dimensionality of the blow.

On the one hand, the pressure from peers, on the other hand, the continuous high marketing costs, how will WEILAI respond? Maybe the next NIO DAY will tell us the answer.

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