Under the background of the New Year's Eve market, after many downturns, can the big consumption sector return to the king? From the beginning of the trend of major stock indexes to the latest predictions of fund managers such as Liu Yanchun and Wu Yue, it is not difficult to find that the "valuation return" of the consumer sector is likely to be a major trend of investment in 2022.
The style is gradually clear, but the difficulty of stock selection is increasing
Wind data shows that as of the close of December 9, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 3.06% since December, the Shenzhen Component Index has risen by 2.38%, the CSI 300 has risen by 5.10%, the Shanghai 50 has risen by 6.16%, and blue-chip stocks such as Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye have moved higher, of which Guizhou Moutai once stood at 2100 yuan in the intraday. But on the other hand, the ChiNext index fell 1.04%, and the Kechuang 50 fell 2.79%.
Source: Wind
A public fundraiser in South China said bluntly that from the perspective of the market since December, this round of New Year's Eve market has a more obvious "differentiation" trend. After the high volatility of popular tracks such as the previous strong new energy, the large consumer sector that has been adjusted for a long time has begun to rise, especially after the Stock Price of Moutai returned to 2,000 yuan, and the consumer sector continued to receive funds. "From the trend point of view, the market style in 2022 may change. As the New Year's Eve market continues to unfold, the style direction will gradually become clear. ”
Wang Lianxin, fund manager of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund, said that the current market expectations for liquidity are good, and the RRR reduction releases a signal of steady growth, and there are still very considerable investment opportunities in A shares, but the difficulty of stock selection has increased. Wang Lianxin cited Wind data to point out that as of December 3, 322 stocks with a rise of more than 100% this year in all A-shares have exceeded 206 in 2019 and 269 in 2020. In addition, the median yield of all A-shares this year is 5.8%, up from 3% in 2020, but lower than 15.6% in 2019.
That said, from the median yield of stocks alone, the market in 2019 is actually easier to make money than this year. In this year's market situation, it is relatively simple to outperform the CSI 300 Index (the yield as of December 3 has been -6% so far this year), but it is still not easy to achieve higher returns. With the further increase in the number of A-share listed companies in the future, the difficulty faced by investors in stock selection will also become increasing. Wang Lianxin said.
Focus on consumer blue-chip stocks with well-digested valuations
Liu Yanchun, manager of the top 100 billion fund, pointed out that from a global perspective, the investment side that lags behind the recovery of consumption is expected to gradually return to normal. It is expected that wide credit, stable growth, and boosting domestic demand will be the focus of policy next year, and those companies that have been mispriced due to short-term economic fluctuations will be the focus of the next stage of layout.
Yu Guang, assistant general manager of Invesco Great Wall and general manager of the stock investment department, believes that in 2022, under the background of economic transformation, large consumption has long-term excess returns, and under the background of PPI-CPI scissors difference convergence, the profitability of middle and downstream enterprises is repairing, and it is necessary to focus on consumer blue-chip stocks with strong price raising ability or large industry space and full valuation digestion.
Yang Jianhua, deputy general manager of Great Wall Fund, pointed out that the Spring Festival consumption market still needs to consider the epidemic factor. If the impact of the Omiljung variant is only a high infection rate, but the disease severity rate and mortality rate are low, the impact of the epidemic on consumption is actually marginally weakened. "Judging from the listed companies we surveyed, the operating data of these consumer companies at the beginning of next year is worth looking forward to." If there are no other systemic risks in the market, the probability of making a start next year is relatively large. ”
Miao Yu, manager of GF Competitive Advantage Fund, pointed out that the consumer stock market mainly comes from the advance layout of the Spring Festival peak season in February of the following year. For Chinese, the Spring Festival is the most important time window for visiting relatives and friends, business thanks, and contact feelings, and it is also the situation with the strongest rigidity of consumption upgrading, which also has strong guiding significance for the annual prosperity. "Therefore, the Spring Festival is one of the best time windows to observe consumption, including the observation and perception of industrial trends, and many 'new consumer goods' are widely disseminated during the Spring Festival and become the explosive products of the year."
The reversal time point is most likely around the Spring Festival
Liang Xing, director of Cathay Pacific's quantitative investment business department, pointed out that the consumption sector can be subdivided into food and beverage, medicine, agriculture, automobiles, games, film and television and other mandatory consumption and optional consumption sectors, of which food and beverage and medicine account for a relatively large proportion.
Liang Xing believes that the current valuation quantile of the food and beverage sector is still at a historically high level, and it is expected to continue to digest the valuation for a period of time. The prosperity of the pharmaceutical sector is still there, and the valuation quantile of individual sub-sectors is at a historical low. Other consumer segments such as automobiles may have better performance due to their high prosperity.
Wu Yue, director of harvest consumption research and fund manager, believes that the current consumer investment is in the left stage, but the bottom has been seen, and the probability of the reversal is around the Spring Festival. Compared with this year, the investment opportunities in the consumer sector in the first half of next year are worth looking forward to. Wu Yue pointed out that from a structural point of view, next year's consumption market may come from mandatory consumption, and the two major tracks of food and agriculture are the core directions. However, next year's consumption market is different from the previous leading white horse stocks, and the biggest offensive direction may come from the second- and third-tier small and medium-sized market capitalization companies in the compulsory consumption.
"The subdivision track with the attributes of 'innovation' and 'consumption upgrade' in the pharmaceutical sector is the focus of the market layout in 2022, and it is more optimistic about innovative drugs, CXO, advanced manufacturing in the upstream of medicine, consumer medicine, vaccines and medical devices." Mao Dingding, a researcher in the pharmaceutical industry of Chuangjin Hexin Fund, said that from the perspective of more than one year, the collection price may gradually return to rationality, and China's pharmaceutical industry still has a large room for progress in innovation, research and development. With the deepening of the aging of the population, the demand for medical services by Chinese residents will also increase day by day, and the growth space of the pharmaceutical industry is still large.
This article originated from China Securities News