On December 1, according to the news reported by the US "Power" website, according to the current procurement plan of the US Air Force, its Air Force will have 6500 AGM158 series cruise missiles by fiscal year 2025. However, once a war is waged on an "equivalent adversary" like China or Russia, the missiles are expected to run out in 8.5 days. It is understood that the website cites data from the research report of the Us Air Force think tank Michelle Aerospace Research Institute, and frankly said that if the opponent's air defense capabilities continue to increase, the speed of ammunition consumption will be even more amazing.
As we all know, every military report of the United States represents the competition of interests of all parties, the US Air Force wants stronger air strike capabilities, the US arms dealers want more arms orders and research and development orders, and the final result of all forces is to unite to ask the US Congress for money. Therefore, it is often seen that the US media "exposes themselves to their ugliness", such as the F35 fighter's stealth ability is not good, the number of F22 fighters is seriously insufficient, etc., a considerable part of which is routine, often true and false people are confused, and the report of the Michelle Aerospace Research Institute is a "half-truth and half-false" report.
Is the survivability of subsonic cruise missiles high?
First, let's talk about what's true in this report. Cruise missiles have always been the most cost-effective and cheapest in medium- and long-range strike weapon systems, with long-range cruise missiles generally having a range of 1,500 kilometers or more, and some of the more extreme strategic deterrent cruise missiles, such as Russia's KH101, which has a range of up to 5,000 kilometers. In the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. ship-borne Tomahawk cruise missile was a big hit.
However, as the performance of modern air defense systems becomes more and more advanced, the penetration performance of traditional subsonic cruise missiles has become worse and worse in the face of a wide variety of detection systems in the theater and anti-aircraft missile systems at all levels. Taking the Anglo-American and French air strikes on Syria as an example, the three countries launched a total of 103 cruise missiles in the air strikes, but Russia and Syria said that they intercepted a total of 71 cruise missiles, with an interception rate of up to 70%, including the most advanced "Storm Shadow" airborne cruise missiles in Europe that use stealth design. If it is replaced by countries with strong air defense systems such as China and Russia, the probability of this interception may rise sharply.
The current embarrassing situation facing the United States
Subsonic cruise missiles have a low survivability, even with stealth designs, and the potential of subsonic cruise missiles is basically exhausted in the face of high-density air defense systems. Some people may question whether it would be better to greatly improve the performance of subsonic cruise missiles, such as comprehensively enhancing the stealth capability of the missile and loading the electronic/photoelectric countermeasure system, which can improve the penetration capability of the missile.
In fact, the current embarrassing place for the United States is here, and a significant increase in missile performance is bound to increase the cost of missiles, so one of the most important advantages of subsonic missiles; the cost will become difficult to control. Although the purchase price of the AGM158 series cruise missiles is about 700,000 US dollars, which basically reaches the purchase price of the "cheap Tomahawk", in terms of range, even the ER extended range model has also appeared "waist chopper" compared to the Tomahawk. Major General Amargost, director of strategic planning and needs of the U.S. Air Force's Global Strike Command, believes that the purchase price of missiles such as AGM158 should be controlled at about $300,000, and if only from the unit price, the status of AGM158 is still relatively embarrassing.
In fact, for high-subsonic cruise missiles, major countries have strengthened countermeasures, such as Russia's "armor" series of terminal gun interception systems. In recent years, China has also launched a large number of energy-efficient air defense models, which can effectively intercept incoming high-subsonic cruise missiles through radar, photoelectric detection and other means. Major General Amagest believes that a large number of low-cost guided munitions should be developed, and more ammunition can be stockpiled at the same purchase price to avoid the embarrassment of ammunition exhaustion, so as to put the AGM158 on the focus of the target, but in fact it is the key target that will deploy a perfect air defense system.
The drunkard's intention is not to drink, and the target is directly at hypersonic missiles
The US military has raised the issue of the inventory and survivability of the AGM158 missile, and its ultimate goal may still be to put pressure on arms dealers and the government to hope that the airborne hypersonic strike missile can enter service as soon as possible. Although the flight characteristics of hypersonic missiles are very obvious, the extremely high flight speed greatly increases the probability of penetration, which means that the defensive pressure of the target is greatly increased, and more targeted deployments must be made to dilute the pressure brought by hypersonic missiles. The U.S. Air Force is currently testing the AGM183A air-launched hypersonic missile, which can fly at mach 6.5 to Mach 8.
It is worth mentioning that in order to maximize the range, the hypersonic missile only uses a 50-pound warhead, while its range reaches 2400 kilometers, which can target unprotected targets at important nodes, such as radar systems, command nodes at various levels and other targets. It can be seen that the AGM183A is the dream weapon of the US Air Force.
However, although the United States has a high starting point in hypersonic speed, it has experienced delays in the equipment service schedule. Both China and Russia currently have hypersonic equipment in service. Taking the People's Liberation Army as an example, the DF17 missile using gliding warheads and the DF100 with a scramjet engine have been put into active service, while the Russian side is represented by the "Vanguard" and "Zircon" cruise missiles, which has caused great pressure on the US military.
So is the AGM158 as bad as the U.S. military says, and is the U.S. military's ammunition reserve only enough for a week? This is not the case. First of all, in the case of the AGM 158 cruise missile, which ushered in a new era of out-of-area strikes by the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Navy. In other words, it was the addition of the AGM158 that greatly enhanced the U.S. out-of-region strike capability. Among them, the AGM 158B (JASSM-ER) cruise missile and the AGM 158C (LRASM) have a range of more than 900 kilometers.
The most important feature of this cruise missile is that it can be carried by all tactical aircraft active in service by the U.S. military, including the F15, F16, and the U.S. Navy's FA18 series carrier-based aircraft. This means that carrier aircraft carrying the AGM158 series of missiles can strike outside the interception radius of all current air defense systems. Even the S500 long-range air defense system, which is not yet officially commissioned by Russia, has a maximum interception radius of only about 600 kilometers. It can be seen that if the US military uses the AGM183A hypersonic missile to cooperate with the AGM158 cruise missile, it can avoid the situation of low energy efficiency of the latter to a certain extent. At the end of the day, the U.S. Air Force still wants hypersonic missiles to compensate for the lack of "high-end" firepower.
As for the so-called "ammunition reserves only enough for one week" made by the US Air Force think tank, it is undoubtedly a great exaggeration of the intensity of the use of the AGM158. A little analysis can be seen that in the future, the CONVENTIONAL strike method of the US Air Force will first attack the perception node target by hypersonic missiles to create a strike window for the AGM158. The AGM158 will then focus on ground air defense systems, followed by conventional precision strikes by tactical aircraft. It can be seen that the US Air Force is still extremely threatening to other countries. Then, looking back at the report of the US Air Force think tank Michelle Space Research Institute, it is essentially a trick for various FORCES in the United States to jointly "perform" and ask the US Congress for money.