A few days ago, Taiwan regional leader Tsai Ing-wen was interviewed by CNN, and her vicious remarks were frequent and full of provocations, which detonated public opinion on both sides of the strait. From the "four insistences" put forward in the "Double Ten" speech not long ago, to the air interaction with US politicians, to this interview, Tsai Ing-wen has gone farther and farther on the road of betraying the motherland, and has unabashedly engaged in all-round confrontation with cross-strait Chinese, including Taiwan compatriots.
Since Lee Teng-hui came to power in the Taiwan region, the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces have gradually expanded, and cross-strait relations have been turbulent, easing the military security risks in the Taiwan Strait since the late 1970s have risen again. In June 1995, Lee Teng-hui's "visit to the United States" led to a new military crisis in the Taiwan Strait, and the military forces in the Chinese mainland, the United States, and the Taiwan region re-entered a state of substantive confrontation; in July 1999, Lee Teng-hui threw out the "two-state theory" and once again led to a military crisis in the Taiwan Strait, and PLA warplanes broke through the so-called "median line of the strait."
When Chen Shui-bian came to power in May 2000, the Taiwan Strait entered a period of high danger, and war was on the verge of breaking out, so that the United States had to intervene to suppress "Taiwan independence." However, in the meantime, there was no war between the two sides of the strait after all, and the military confrontation situation was not dangerous, which was not only the result of the mainland side judging the hour and sizing up the situation and adhering to the policy of peaceful reunification, but also the constraints on "Taiwan independence" imposed on various environmental conditions on the island of Taiwan and the international community.
In May 2016, the Democratic Progressive Party came to power again, and the Tsai Ing-wen administration stubbornly pursued the policies of "gradual Taiwan independence", "seeking independence by relying on foreigners" and "seeking independence with the epidemic", and the military security risks in the Taiwan Strait have risen unprecedentedly. Compared with the past, there have been many new changes in its motivation, performance and internal and external environmental conditions.
The DPP authorities have become more resolute in promoting "Taiwan independence."
If Lee Teng-hui is greatly constrained by internal and external conditions and Chen Shui-bian is speculative to a certain extent, then Tsai Ing-wen's team will either be more ideological and "Taiwan independence." In the precarious environment in which the United States launched strategic competition with China, the Tsai Ing-wen authorities do not believe that the risk of "seeking independence" will lead to disaster or "abandonment" is greater, but rather that there has been a "period of strategic opportunity for Taiwan independence" and a "window of last opportunity." In an attempt to use force to push forward the process of separatism, push as far as they can, and fantasize about achieving "independence" in a certain name or form with the support of the United States. Even if it fails, it will immigrate to the United States at most in the future.
This means that during the Tsai Ing-wen period, there was a certain realistic possibility of cross-strait strategic showdown, at least much higher than during the Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian periods, and the showdown meant the use of troops.
The "greening" of Taiwan's society is even more serious
During the period when Lee Teng-hui or Chen Shui-bian were in power, Taiwan's anti-"independence" forces were relatively strong, the social foundation for maintaining the status quo, Chinese identity, and the "1992 Consensus" was relatively strong, and the Blue Camp had sufficient countervailing capabilities for the Green Camp and "Taiwan independence." However, in the later period of Ma Ying-jeou's administration, especially since the "Sunflower Student Movement", Taiwanese society has accelerated its "greening". After the DPP came to power again, The national identity of Taiwan society, the stand on cross-strait relations, and the understanding of mainland politics and society have rapidly degenerated in a direction that is not conducive to peaceful reunification, and "Taiwan independence" has to some extent become the "political correctness" of Taiwan society.
In particular, the long-term downturn in public opinion willing to fight for "Taiwan independence" has risen markedly, posing a severe challenge to the peaceful development of cross-strait relations. The populism of Taiwan's society is already very serious, populism has pushed politics toward polarization, and extreme views on cross-strait relations have been stimulated and inspired, thus forming a new misleading taiwan society, and such a vicious circle continues. The sudden outbreak of new crown pneumonia is the latest test of the degree of "greening" in Taiwanese society.
Judging from the history of cross-strait relations in the past, natural disasters are often a favorable opportunity to improve cross-strait relations, enhance cross-strait feelings, and reduce cross-strait tensions, but during the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the DPP authorities have operated against the trend, "sought independence through the epidemic," and gained self-respect by relying on foreign countries, resulting in cross-strait relations not only not warming up because of this, but worsening them, giving people a feeling of severe cold, severe winter, and extreme cold, and accumulating anger, populism, and the energy of early showdowns between the two sides of the strait. Politicians instigate extreme ideas for profit, and misguided public opinion pushes politicians to go to more extremes, which is often an important historical logic that leads to war, and extreme events often become the fuse of war. In this sense, what the DPP authorities have done in the new crown pneumonia epidemic is reprehensible!
The United States has become more lenient in its policy toward "Taiwan independence."
"Taiwan independence" means war, and there is no peace in separatism. Under the framework of strategic competition with China, the US policy toward "Taiwan independence" has degenerated from restricting and suppressing in the past to instigating controllable "Taiwan independence."
As early as the Bush Jr. administration, the "hawks" headed by then US Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld advocated stimulating "Taiwan independence" to let the two sides of the strait fight a war and bring the Chinese mainland back to the "Stone Age." After the Trump administration launched strategic competition with China, it vigorously played the "Taiwan card" and challenged the basic principles of Sino-US relations. The Biden administration claims that the Cooperation between China and the United States in the field of cooperation, the competition in the field of competition, the Taiwan issue is obviously classified by it into the field of competition, and its intensity of playing the "Taiwan card" is even worse than that of the Trump administration.
On August 31, Biden claimed in a withdrawal statement from Afghanistan that the withdrawal from Afghanistan was to concentrate on Dealing with China and Russia. This is both a justification for its hasty withdrawal and an inevitable path to be taken. In the next step, the Biden administration will be more lenient in its use of "Taiwan independence" and strive to rebuild Taiwan into a "troublemaker" for Chinese mainland, including further upgrading political relations, integrating international support, providing military Olympic aid, and strengthening economic cooperation, so as to send a more intensive wrong signal to the DPP authorities and encourage "Taiwan independence" to move blindly and aggressively.
Although the US government and military leaders also claim to avoid war and conflict between China and the United States, their preparations for war against China have not stopped for a moment. The US military, which has escaped from the quagmire of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, will be transferred to the western Pacific to strengthen military pressure on China, which is bound to further worsen the security environment in the western Pacific.
Before the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, there were also military confrontations and even war conflicts between China and the United States, but the strategic focus of the United States was in Europe, and the main targets of operations of the US military were the former Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact army. During the administration of Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian, there was a resurgence of military confrontation between the Chinese and US militaries, but the United States had a clear and firm policy toward avoiding military conflict between the two sides. Now the situation is different, the focus of US military strategy has shifted to Asia, and the main targets of the US military are aimed at the Chinese mainland army and the Russian army, and the former is more fundamental. This cannot but be a strategic stimulus and misleading for the DPP authorities.
The military confrontation between the two sides of the strait is even closer to actual combat
The cross-strait military confrontation is an important issue put forward by the mainland side in its 1979 "Message to Taiwan Compatriots," holding that "there is still a military confrontation between the two sides in the Taiwan Strait, which can only create artificial tension," and calling for "an end to this state of military confrontation through negotiations between the Government of the People's Republic of China and the Taiwan authorities, so as to create the necessary premise and security environment for exchanges and contacts between the two sides in any range."
With the mainland's reform and opening up and the policy of "peaceful reunification and one country, two systems" put forward, the military confrontation between the two sides has gradually eased. Although the two sides of the strait have not ended their state of hostility, a peaceful situation in the Taiwan Strait has been substantially formed. However, the "time bomb" that threatens peace has not been ruled out, and the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces often pose a threat and impact on the overall situation of peace in the Taiwan Strait, and several serious crises have arisen successively. The crisis in the Taiwan Strait caused by Tsai Ing-wen's stubborn plot for "independence" is even more serious and more variable than the high-risk period during Chen Shui-bian's period, and can be described as a crisis with war-like overtones.
If we say that during the administration of Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian, the United States also made war preparations and actions against China, its symbolic significance may be greater than substantive, and its political significance is much greater than its military significance. However, at present, the US military's preparations and operations for War against China are of more substantive and military significance, and the actual combat color is strong in terms of style, scale, attempt and process. Of course, the mainland side cannot relax its vigilance and has continuously sent a strong signal to the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces and external interference forces that they are "waiting for the peace and resolutely defending state sovereignty and territorial integrity."
International environmental impacts are more complex and volatile
On the Taiwan issue in the past, the United States and other relevant countries, out of the need to stabilize their relations with China, took a relatively consistent attitude and rarely wavered on the issue of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait region. However, under the conditions that the United States has launched strategic competition with China and played the "Taiwan card" on a large scale, the United States has undergone new changes in the strategic positioning of the Taiwan issue, the degree of tightening of the situation in the Taiwan Strait, and the grasp of the scale and means of instigating the use of the Taiwan issue. In short, a peaceful and stable situation in the Taiwan Strait may not necessarily meet the needs of the United States' strategic competition with China, and maintaining a certain degree of heat in the Taiwan Strait is more conducive to mobilizing and containing Chinese mainland.
Although the United States and its allies have repeatedly claimed to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, this statement is more interpreted as a target and "example" of attack in its discourse system of slandering Chinese mainland "undermining the status quo on both sides of the strait" and "creating instability in the Taiwan Strait", and is not necessarily the essence of its policy. In other words, we can no longer judge the US security policy in the Taiwan Strait from the perspective of "maintaining stability." On the Taiwan issue, the united states' allies and partners are not willing to take sides, but they also have to follow the United States to a certain extent, and their political, military, and diplomatic cooperation is also increasing.
It is worth noting that at the end of August, the United States withdrew from Afghanistan, the country's credibility was seriously damaged, and it is bound to further increase the containment of China, and the direction of the Taiwan Strait may be the top priority of the United States. The United States has "allies" on the island, supporters in the international community, and can affect complex international factors, which is more convenient for manipulation and utilization.
The comparison of the comprehensive strength of the two sides of the strait is more favorable to the mainland
The balance of power is an important factor in the risk of war, and a favorable position of power helps to control the situation. In 2020, the mainland's GDP is more than 22 times that of Taiwan, and Taiwan ranks seventh among the mainland's provincial-level administrative regions, ranking behind Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan and Sichuan. The comparison of economic quality between the two sides of the strait has also undergone structural changes, and Taiwan's advantages in product technology, quality, layout, marketing, etc. have been greatly lost, and only a very few areas such as high-end chip manufacturing and machinery have some residual advantages.
Militarily, the Taiwan military has made certain progress in the informationization construction, giving prominence to the development of offensive weapons and equipment, but the number and scale are limited and it is impossible to truly be autonomous; in particular, the progress of the main battle weaponry and equipment is slow, the morale and training level of the military have declined, and it is impossible to hold taiwan alone. The results of several US wars in the Taiwan Strait also show that the US military at least has no certainty of victory.
In other words, the mainland's military strength has always been a major factor in curbing "Taiwan independence" and is also a powerful means of promoting reunification. The stronger the comprehensive strength of the mainland side, the stronger the deterrent power against "Taiwan independence" and "refusal to reunification," the smaller the constraints on taking the initiative to implement policies, the greater the space for strategic operation, and the more relaxed the use of policy means.
No matter how arrogant "Taiwan independence" is, how quickly reunification will be. In the past, the mainland side focused on opposing and stopping radical "Taiwan independence" by force, that is, forcing radical "Taiwan independence" to withdraw its life through military deterrence and, if necessary, restrained military strikes. However, at present, Taiwan's society and politics continue to be deeply "greened," and the Taiwan authorities stubbornly promote "Taiwan independence." Once they declare "Taiwan independence" in some name and form, the consequences will be unimaginable.
At present, the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces are speculating that the so-called mainland is subject to a series of major affairs such as national rejuvenation, economic development, and even the Winter Olympics and will not use force against Taiwan, in order to paralyze Taiwan society. Curbing and winning the war against "independence" and promoting reunification has always had nothing to do with the mainland's stage of development, because "in the face of the Chinese, nothing is more important and sacred than defending the sovereignty and territorial integrity of one's own country."