By the end of October, the wait-and-see atmosphere of the second-hand house seems to be stronger.
Buyers are worried about whether buying a house now will be at a high point, and sellers are reluctant to see that they are selling their houses for a lower price than their neighbors six months ago. As a result, the two different mentalities reflect to the market that there are fewer and fewer houses to see, and those who sell houses will never compromise.
However, as the game between buyers and sellers intensifies, transactions slow down, but the number of available listings has been accumulating rapidly, according to the data of the chain home network, as of the end of October, the number of second-hand houses listed in Beijing exceeded 90,000 units, and in 4 months, 16,000 new listings were added. Under the pressure of more listings for sale, the balance is tilting toward the buyer's market, and the price alliance that sellers stick to seems to be getting harder and harder...
< h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="3" > down</h1>
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="3" > policy is tight</h1>
This year's "Golden Nine Silver Ten" of the Beijing Building has not been optimistic from the beginning, new houses can also be used to concentrate on the market, the supply of a large increase to cover the shame, second-hand houses are in the school district new policy, credit tightening joint impact, mud and sand.
According to the data released by the Beijing Municipal Housing and Construction Commission, since June 2021, the number of online signed units of existing housing in Beijing has decreased month by month, with 18,849 units of existing housing in June, and 17,855 and 15,942 units in July and August, respectively. In September of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten", the number of residential contracts further fell to 12,575 units. As if that wasn't enough, the downward trend was even worse in October. According to the website of the Beijing Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission, in October, the number of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing was 9340 sets, a new monthly low this year.
"In previous years, September and October were the peak season for transactions, and there may even be a tail market at the end of the year." But this year's turnover has declined month by month, some colleagues can not open a single order a month, can only rely on the basic salary to maintain, we are now the focus of sales has been placed on the new house. Miss Zhao, an intermediary of a chain store in Haidian District, told the Beiqing Beijing headline reporter.
Industry insiders believe that the change in the transaction of second-hand housing in Beijing building is on the time trajectory, which basically coincides with the time point of the new housing policy in Beijing school district and the slow lending of second-hand housing loans.
In early July, Xicheng District ended the 2021 primary school multi-school slice enrollment intention to fill in the work, and parents who had previously been optimistic about multi-school slices were disappointed. With the news that multi-school zoning has been strictly enforced, the second-hand housing market in Xicheng, Dongcheng and Haidian education regions has also rapidly cooled within a few months.
At the same time, second-hand housing loans in Beijing have also contracted significantly. Around the end of June and the beginning of July this year, the lending speed of major mainstream banks in Beijing for housing loans slowed down significantly compared with the first half of the year, and the lending progress of some buyers was even scheduled until next year.
"It was transferred at the end of July, and I haven't gotten the full amount yet." Mr. Jiang, who expects to sell his house to realize cash, told the Headline Reporter of Beiqing Beijing. According to him, the second-hand housing transaction was finalized in April, the two sides agreed on a 3-month cycle, and the intermediary broker promised him at that time that the bank would be able to lend money in about half a month. But in fact, after the transfer at the end of July, another three months have passed, and there is still no news of the loan.
According to people close to the bank's housing loan department, the bank does not make commitments to the lending time at present, and the original transfer and lending are faster than half a month, but now they have been stretched to 4 to 6 months, especially some portfolio loan customers, and even wait until after the Spring Festival next year to receive loans. In contrast, the loan speed of a simple provident fund loan is still significantly faster than that of a commercial loan.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="6" > deadlock</h1>
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="7" > fewer house buyers are not willing to reduce prices</h1>
Another new policy that can be called a critical blow to second-hand houses is the guidance price for second-hand houses issued by Haidian District. At the end of September, the Haidian District Real Estate Brokers Association issued an internal self-discipline initiative to formulate second-hand housing guidance prices for 29 communities in the district, pouring cold water on the popular regional property market. Including Shangdi Dongli, Hummingbird Home, Huaqing Jiayuan and other hot spots with high turnover rate in Haidian District, they have encountered "price limits".
Many buyers expect that the price of second-hand houses will enter a downward channel, and in order to avoid "standing guard at a high level", they have chosen to shelve the purchase plan. The decline in customer enthusiasm for entering the market has directly led to the decline in the number of intermediary belts, and Miss Zhao, who is at the Home of Haidian Chain, revealed that her customer views in October decreased by 19% compared with September. The transaction volume of second-hand houses in its stores has also declined in tandem with the market, and the magnitude is even greater. The inconsistency between buyers and sellers' expectations has led to a significant lack of market activity, and the number of views has continued to decline. "The buyer's expectation is to align with the reference price, or even lower than the reference price, which is still far from the seller's psychological price." Miss Zhao said so.
Miss Zhao told the Beiqing-Beijing headline reporter that although the market situation is not ideal, the amount of viewing is also decreasing, but most of the owners' willingness to reduce prices is not obvious, a small number of price reductions are large units with high total price listings, for the more popular small apartment listings, the attitude of the owners is very firm, "the price is not sold."
The intermediary also said, "Many small apartment owners are people who buy houses relatively early, the monthly payment is not much, there is no pressure in life, so they hang on the plate, do not increase the price or reduce the price, they do not want to the price of the house of the same type of house is lower than the recent transaction price of the neighbor, and the buyer who wants to bargain will basically be rejected." ”
Mr. Lu, who has been looking at the second-hand house for a while, also said that "the attitude of the owners is very abrupt."
"I looked at a second-hand house outside the West City Two weeks ago and wanted to talk to the owner about the price, no matter how the agent invited me, the owner just didn't see me. However, after the eleventh holiday, the agent suddenly contacted me to say that the owner made an appointment to meet, and I think it is likely that the second-hand house sold too poorly on national day, and I was worried that the house could not be sold. Mr. Lu said.
Although some owners have higher expectations, the market downturn is a fact, and the continuous decline in transaction volume has fallen below the watershed of the average monthly 10,000 units, which means that it has become more difficult for owners to sell their homes.
In this regard, Zhang Bo, president of the 58 Tongcheng Research Institute Branch, told Beiqing Beijing Headline Reporter that since July, due to the continuous tightening of real estate regulation, the second-hand housing market has been glued, which indicates that the market has cooled down significantly. Although buyers and sellers are still playing a fierce game based on price factors and will continue for some time, the trend of the second-hand housing market is shifting from a seller's market to a buyer's market has been established.
Zhang Bo also said that the second-hand housing market is more market-oriented than the new housing market, but also a more free market, the situation of second-hand housing owners is also very different, the future around the price of the long and short duel will be more intense, for buyers, but also a good opportunity to pick a house to find "bamboo shoots".
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="10" > rebalancing</h1>
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="11" > monthly transactions hovering around 10,000 sets Tepid will be the norm</h1>
At present, it seems that in the case of a sharp increase in the number of new listings listed by the owners, it is likely to fall into the classic "prisoner's dilemma" of game theory, and the second-hand houses with more price advantages will break the dilemma and get the transaction.
Beiqing-Beijing headline reporter inquiry found that as of October 30, the number of second-hand houses listed on the chain home network was 90,600 sets. From June to August, the chain listing data was 76,600 sets, 78,100 sets, and 82,600 sets, respectively. In other words, in four months, the total number of second-hand housing listings in Beijing increased by 16,000 units. You know, in the past four months, the transaction volume of second-hand houses has been declining, which means that the supply has increased significantly, but the actual demand is decreasing, and the number of reduced-price listings may continue to increase.
In a list of some of the desheng area transactions provided by an intermediary agency, of the 14 sets of transactions, only 1 set of entry prices are the same as the transaction price, the remaining 13 sets of transaction prices are lower than the entry price, and none of them are premium transactions. The decline in price-reduced listings is basically calculated in terms of 100,000 yuan, and the highest drop is 2 million yuan.
A data provided by Maitian Real Estate also shows that among the listings that adjust the price after the National Day, the listing price has been lowered by 87%, and only 13% of the listing price has been raised, indicating that the landlord's price expectations are weakening, more and more landlords accept to accelerate the transaction by reducing the price, and some urgently sold listings have a certain bargaining space.
For the future market, the industry's expectations are not very optimistic. Zhang Bo believes that from the perspective of the rhythm of real estate regulation, the momentum of the rise in the transaction volume of the second-hand housing market this year has been significantly weak, and the probability of monthly transaction volume will hover around 10,000 sets, which will not have a more substantial decline, and it is difficult to recover to the monthly transaction level in the first half of the year.
Zhang Bo believes that the convergence of expectations of buyers and sellers requires a long period of game rebalancing, if the real estate loan lending cycle can be shortened and credit support is relaxed, it is not ruled out that the subsequent transaction volume has improved at the data level, but it will not change the overall trend of the second-hand housing market this year.
Text/Beiqing- Beijing headline reporter Li Juan