"Golden Nine Silver Ten" is no longer: buyers are afraid of price reductions on the sidelines, and 80% of the performance of the top 100 housing enterprises has fallen

The source of this article: Times Finance Author: Liu Xinge

Image source: Figureworm Creative

The "Golden Nine Silver Ten" ended, but the harvest of housing enterprises was not very good.

According to Kerry data, in the single month of October, the sales volume of TOP100 housing enterprises was 776.14 billion yuan, down 32.2% from the same period last year. From the perspective of cumulative performance, the sales growth rate of housing enterprises is also slowing down, and the sales volume of the top 100 housing enterprises in the first 10 months was 9334.72 billion yuan, an increase of only 6.7% year-on-year, and an increase of 18.5% over the same period in 2019.

Despite this, the property market in October has warmed up compared to September. In September, the monthly sales of TOP100 housing enterprises was 759.6 billion yuan, the first monthly decline, a decrease of 1.8%; from a year-on-year point of view, September fell by 36.2% compared with last year, and also fell by 17.7% compared with September 2019.

Tao Shuru, research director of the Enterprise Division of the Middle Finger Research Institute, told Times Finance that the discoloration of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" is mainly affected by the overall market environment, "the local regulation and control policies have gradually become effective, the housing loan environment is tight, the property market has cooled down, and the buyers' wait-and-see mood has improved."

<h5>80% of the performance of the top 100 housing enterprises declined year-on-year</h5>

In the market where the "gold content" has declined, the resistance of first-tier cities is significantly better than that of second- and third-tier cities. Among the 29 cities that Kerry focused on monitoring, the transaction area of commercial housing fell by 3% month-on-month, 22% year-on-year, and 12% lower than the same period in 2019. Among them, the transactions of first-tier cities increased by 4% month-on-month and fell by 18% year-on-year. The markets in 25 second- and third-tier cities are difficult to say to be better, and transactions fell by 4% month-on-month and 23% year-on-year.

Leading housing enterprises also continue to maintain certain advantages, and the concentration of the industry has further accelerated. From January to October, the number of housing enterprises with sales of more than 100 billion yuan reached 32, an increase of 6 over the same period last year. The threshold for the sales volume of TOP10 housing enterprises reached 228.8 billion yuan, an increase of 25.3% year-on-year, an increase of 40.1% over 2019. The threshold of sales trading amount of TOP20 and TOP30 housing enterprises increased by 23.5% and 11.3% respectively year-on-year, while the threshold of sales trading amount of TOP50 housing enterprises was basically the same as that of the same period last year, at 48.56 billion yuan, and the threshold increase was lower than that of other echelons.

Overall, under the cold market, the performance completion rate of housing enterprises is facing a lot of pressure. According to Kerry statistics, in October, more than 80% of the top 100 housing enterprises decreased their single-month performance year-on-year, of which 44 housing enterprises fell by more than 30% year-on-year, while the performance of the top 100 housing enterprises fell by 37 with the same and month-on-month double decline.

According to data from the China Index Institute, from January to October this year, among the 32 real estate companies that announced sales targets, the average target completion rate was only 76.3%. Among them, there are only 8 companies with a performance completion rate of more than 80%, and the target completion rate of Greentown, Binjiang, Zhengrong, Kaisa, and Dafabet Real Estate is more than 90%.

Sales are under pressure, and the enthusiasm of housing enterprises to obtain land has also decreased sharply. Statistics from the China Finger Institute show that in October, the total amount of land taken by 50 representative housing enterprises fell by 71.1% year-on-year and 68.7% month-on-month. A total of 62 plots of land were auctioned nationwide, and the auction rate was 13.42%. From January to October, a total of 813 auctions were recorded nationwide, with a streaming rate of 12.04%, an increase of 2.71 percentage points year-on-year.

"On the one hand, the growth rate of land acquisition in a single month in September was remarkable, resulting in a month-on-month decline in October; on the other hand, the market entered a period of adjustment, and enterprises became more and more cautious about taking land, which also declined year-on-year." The middle finger academy analyzed.

From the perspective of urban agglomeration distribution, cities in hot spots are increasingly favored by housing enterprises. From January to October, the Yangtze River Delta, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area were the most concerned by real estate enterprises, accounting for 34.1%, 9.5% and 9.3% of the land area respectively. In terms of cities, Chongqing surpassed Hangzhou, the "large land seller" in recent years, and the area of land sold ranked first in the country, while Hangzhou and Changsha occupied the second and third places. Wenzhou and Jinhua in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, although not centralized land supply cities, are on the list of "TOP 10 Cities representing housing enterprises to obtain land area", ranking sixth and tenth respectively.

<h5>Correction of deviations by financial institutions does not mean easing credit</h5>

The tightening of credit is an important reason for the "flameout" of the property market. Since the second quarter of this year, housing loans have continued to tighten, and many places have staged a "wave of loan suspension". At the same time, the development loans obtained by housing enterprises are also insufficient, and the capital chain is tight. By the end of the third quarter, the balance of real estate development loans was 12.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.02% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.8 percentage points lower than the end of the previous quarter. The growth rate of personal housing loans is also declining, with the balance at the end of the third quarter being 37.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate is 1.7 percentage points lower than the end of the previous quarter.

There are always voices of "regulation and relaxation" in the market, especially since the end of September, the central government and the central bank have frequently spoken out about the real estate industry and housing loans, which have also been interpreted as signals of policy relaxation. Shell Research Institute statistics also show that the mortgage environment has improved slightly: in October, the interest rate of the first home loan in 90 mainstream cities was 5.73%, and the interest rate of the second home loan was 5.99%, both of which were 1 basis point lower than last month, which is also the first time this year that the mortgage interest rate has been adjusted.

However, the full relaxation of mortgages has not come. The credit manager of a branch of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of Guangzhou told Times Finance, "The current market is very sensitive, a good news, very worried about the rebound." Moreover, the 'two red lines' of bank mortgages are still there, and even if banks want to relax, they are 'insufficient in their hearts'. ”

Loans are difficult to get in place, and bond financing is also facing a lot of pressure. According to the statistics of Shell Research Institute, the average coupon rate of domestic bond financing of real estate enterprises in October was 4.18%, up 7 basis points from the previous month; the average coupon rate of overseas bond financing was 10.65%, a sharp increase of 157 basis points from the previous month.

The scale of bond issuance has contracted more than expected. In a single month in October, a total of 31 domestic and foreign bond financings were issued by real estate enterprises, a decrease of 31 from the previous month, and the scale of issuance was equivalent to about RMB30.4 billion, a decrease of 55.9% month-on-month and 56.1% year-on-year. In the first 10 months, domestic and foreign bond financing totaled about 799.3 billion yuan, down 24% from the same period in 2020, and the amount of money decreased by 246.3 billion yuan.

Shell Research Institute believes that although the central bank has released a certain degree of friendliness in response to the statement of the real estate industry, the marginal relaxation of the substantive policy is mainly a correction of unreasonable behavior in the implementation of policies by financial institutions, and it will still take a certain amount of time to affect the risk appetite of financial institutions. Internationally, U.S. inflation continues to exceed expectations, U.S. debt fluctuations are mainly affected by investment confidence, and foreign bonds in the real estate industry, mainly US dollar bonds, will be affected by this.