Real estate sales have traditionally had a concept of gold nine silver ten, what does this mean?
Every year in September and October, often the peak period of real estate sales, many large real estate companies in September and October have to fight two battles, more than 1/3 of the annual sales rely on these two months.
But it is clear that the color of this year's golden nine silver ten is seriously insufficient.
According to the survey data of the China Real Estate Index System Baicheng Price Index on the new and second-hand houses in 100 cities across the country: In October 2021, the average price of new residential buildings in 100 cities was 16189 yuan / square meter, up 0.09% month-on-month, the increase narrowed by 0.05 percentage points from the previous month, the increase has been narrowed for 4 consecutive months, and the monthly increase in new house prices fell to the low point of the year; up 3.08% year-on-year, the increase was 0.32 percentage points narrower than the previous month. In terms of second-hand housing, the average price of second-hand residential buildings in Baicheng was 16,026 yuan / square meter, down 0.04% month-on-month, the first time that the Baicheng Second-hand Residential Price Index fell since its release in June 2020; up 4.04% year-on-year, the increase was 0.34 percentage points narrower than the previous month. ——Excerpt from Securities Times
Judging from the number of cities that rose or fell, the prices of second-hand residential buildings in 59 cities fell month-on-month, and the number was the highest in the year.
According to relevant reports of the 21st century economic media, in the first half of this year, the national property market still maintained a strong trading momentum.
However, in the second half of the year, the credit policy was significantly tightened, and the approval and issuance cycle of mortgage loans was significantly extended, which made the enthusiasm on the demand side decline. On the supply side, although housing companies are still trying to increase their promotional efforts, the overall expectation has declined, resulting in difficulties in market transactions.
In view of the current dilemma of the real estate transaction market, many housing enterprises in China have begun to save themselves. In cities where the decline in house prices has not been tightly controlled, discounted sales of house prices have begun. However, from the overall trading volume, it has not achieved particularly good results.
At the same time, the financing of housing enterprises is still in a sharp decline, the financing environment is worse, and the financing difficulties and continuous collapse have become commonalities in the industry. Although the housing debt has picked up in the past few days, it is difficult to return, and the market is a foregone conclusion early in the morning.
Under such circumstances, the market generally believes that the state's regulation of the real estate market is continuing to play a significant role.
Since February 2021, 13 cities, including Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hefei, Xi'an, Dongguan, etc., have adjusted the guidance price of second-hand houses to limit the amount of housing loans available. Judging from the performance of house prices in the second half of 2021, this adjustment effect is very obvious.
On June 1, the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development released the property market data for May. Among them, the transaction volume of second-hand residential buildings fell month-on-month and year-on-year. According to the data, 3,027 second-hand residential units were sold in Shenzhen in May, a decrease of 38% month-on-month and a sharp decrease of 65% year-on-year. The city's second-hand commercial housing transactions were 337,400 square meters, down 55.25% year-on-year; of which second-hand commercial housing transactions were 276,100 square meters, down 60.98% year-on-year. ——Excerpt from Fang Tianxia
According to statistics, the average monthly transaction of second-hand houses in Xi'an in the first half of the year was more than 10,000 sets, and now even less than half, the real "cliff-like decline". In October, only 2,554 second-hand houses were sold in Hangzhou's property market, down 80% from January.
In terms of the new housing market, we look back at Shenzhen, in September, a total of 841 sets of commercial housing were traded in Shenzhen, down 25.11% month-on-month; the transaction area was 77632.07 square meters, down 29.16% month-on-month. Among them: new housing, 608 sets of transactions, down 33.11% month-on-month; the transaction area of 59100.06 square meters, down 32.94% month-on-month. ——Excerpted from the premises reference
To be precise, the cooling tide of the national property market has begun, and the unprecedented intensity of state regulation and control has restricted the qualifications for buying houses and controlled the money bags of housing enterprises, from policy, finance, land to local market heat, comprehensive restrictions. Therefore, the decline in transaction volume makes the house price inevitably fall.
Even, because the decline in housing prices in some areas is too large, the governments in some areas have also proposed a restriction order.
It seems to be a foregone conclusion that the property market has entered the cooling channel. However, judging from the multiple signals released by the market, this is not entirely the case, and we look at the relevant data specifically.
Although under the purchase restriction order, guidance price, loan restriction order and other policies, in the transaction of new houses, the sales of new houses in many places have risen against the trend, of which Shanghai's achievements are particularly amazing.
In the first half of 2021, Shanghai traded a total of 230,100 residential units. Among them, 49,800 new houses were sold, an increase of 75% compared with 28,400 new houses last year.
In the same period, taking Guangzhou as an example, Guangzhou new house online signature 2368 sets, up 42.65% month-on-month; online signature area of 252863 ㎡, up 40.93% month-on-month. The overall trend is on the rise, and the trend is good.
According to the 2020 Shanghai Real Estate Market Report, the supply and turnover of the new housing market in Shanghai increased significantly in December last year. In December, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in Shanghai was about 1.228 million square meters, and the new supply area was 1.367 million square meters, and the new housing market exceeded demand. From the annual data, in 2020, the transaction area of newly built commercial residential buildings in Shanghai increased by 23.1% year-on-year, and the transaction area hit a new high in four years; the new supply area was 7.786 million square meters, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year. ——Excerpt from NetEase News
It can be seen that under the background of the general cooling of the national property market, the property market in some cities still maintains a certain degree of heat. The price of new homes has also been in an upward channel.
So what is the reason for this, what exactly is causing this to happen?
First, in the past few years, the real estate regulation and control policy has adopted a strategy of strictly controlling housing prices in first-tier cities, and after several years of accumulation, the purchasing power has increased; for third- and fourth-tier cities, the implementation of the "destocking" strategy, the policy measures represented by shantytown transformation have effectively stimulated the real estate market in third- and fourth-tier cities.
Second, the main beneficiaries of the loose macro policies during the epidemic are the wealthy, whose wealth has increased rapidly, which is the main reason why the demand for high-end properties has grown faster than that of ordinary residences.
The housing market is now warming up with real estate tax rumors, and the overall investment attributes have declined, so differentiation has accelerated. Although first-tier cities and net population inflows into urban houses have been affected to a certain extent, new houses with high investment value are still popular and maintain investment attributes.
Differentiation will be the most important theme of China's real estate market in the future.
First, housing prices in large cities and small and medium-sized cities will diverge. Under the impact of the epidemic at the beginning of the year, the market trading volume in all cities fell sharply in February 2020, but then the recovery speed of first-tier cities was significantly faster than that of other cities.
Real estate and local supply and demand are closely related. Third- and fourth-tier cities, especially the northern and western third- and fourth-tier cities, have a rapid population outflow, and the demand for housing is limited, while also encountering sell-offs from displaced residents, and the decline in prices is an inevitable trend.
On the other hand, we now emphasize the concept of urban agglomerations, to develop large cities, with central cities to lead the economic development of the entire region. This price is the siphon surrounding the central city, which continues to drive up local real estate prices.
Even in the same city, the price of real estate in the core area has a differentiating effect with the price of the suburbs, and this effect has emerged in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai.
It is foreseeable that the landing of real estate taxes in the future will further increase differentiation, and the real estate market in the core area of central cities will continue to strengthen. A large number of third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities will weaken the real estate market.
As investors, we must do a good job in investment planning, choose cities nationwide, and choose locations within cities. With the slowdown in real estate growth, the focus of housing enterprises has once again returned to first- and second-tier cities, and there have been many uncertainties in the real estate market in third- and fourth-tier cities.
Therefore, for home buyers, blindly buying a house and gambling to buy a house are not advisable, from a national perspective, buying a house should choose a city within the urban agglomeration, the population continues to flow in, rather than in the population continues to flow out, the industrial structure is unreasonable in the city too much allocation of real estate.
Where does the future hold for real estate? I'm afraid it's not as optimistic as everyone thinks. We'll see.