In the past September and October, many media have reported on the real estate market and used a sentence to describe: "The gold nine has lost color, the silver ten is dismal, and in the last two months of 2021, the property market is a bit difficult." ”
Behind this view is the bland transaction data of the real estate market from September to October 2021:
1. From the perspective of the housing transaction market, the transaction area of 40 typical cities in the country in October fell by 32.4% year-on-year, setting the worst "silver ten" since 2013. Among them, the transaction volume of 13 hot cities in the second-hand housing market fell by 26.9% month-on-month and 42.8% year-on-year, and the total transaction volume basically fell back to the level of October 2014.
2. From the perspective of the land transaction market, the planned construction area of various types of land in 300 cities nationwide in October fell by 47.64% year-on-year; the total amount of transfer fees fell by 38.15% month-on-month and 33.51% year-on-year. At the same time, the overall streaming rate increased, and the premium rate as a whole hit a new low. In terms of the performance of housing enterprises, more than 80% of the housing enterprises in October fell year-on-year.
Therefore, whether it is from the perspective of real estate transactions or from the perspective of the land market, it is a "double drop", no wonder everyone is using the word "dismal" to describe the "golden nine silver ten" in 2021.
So, what is the reason for this round of "Golden Nine Silver Ten" dismal? Is there still a turning point in the real estate market? The reasons are multiple, but the answer is yes, and here are the answers for you.
From the supply side, real estate enterprises are constrained by the "three red lines", which refers to "the asset-liability ratio does not exceed 70%, the net debt ratio does not exceed 100%, and the cash short-term debt ratio is greater than 1" after excluding advance receipts. Affected by it, in the first half of 2021, among the top 50 housing enterprises in the country, 21 housing enterprises ranked in the "green file", 22 housing enterprises were "yellow file", 5 housing enterprises were "orange file", and 2 housing enterprises were "red file", of which the housing enterprises above the yellow file needed to reduce debt through various means.
From the demand side, bank mortgage interest rates have been raised, policies have been tightened, starting from the second half of 2020, banks have begun to strengthen the review of the source of down payment for home buyers, while beginning to crack down on the speculation of second-hand housing intermediaries in the market, in addition, some cities (such as Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen) have also continued to raise mortgage interest rates, further cooling market demand.
From the perspective of the land auction policy, centralized transfer has become the "standard" of large cities, but in places such as Guangzhou and Hangzhou, since the second half of 2021, there have been many plots of land "flow auction", and even extreme cases of real estate developers having grabbed land and abandoned development.
From the above three points, we can draw a conclusion: the real estate market from 2020 to 2021 is "not simple", and it is reasonable that the "golden nine silver ten" flag will come to an end.
Although this year's "Golden Nine Silver Ten" is not satisfactory, is it really that the real estate market is so depressed?
The answer is no. There is a word called "the way of the mean", the development of anything is "too late", pay attention to a "degree", including the real estate market, can not be excessive prosperity, nor can it be too depressed. Therefore, a series of signals are indicating that in the next year, or longer, the real estate market may "spend all the way" and recover.
1. The introduction of the "fall restriction order". For example, on November 1, the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Lingling District, Yongzhou City, Hunan Province, issued the "Notice on Strictly Prohibiting Low-price Dumping", saying that all real estate development enterprises must not disrupt the normal order of real estate in the district for any reason such as dumping at low prices (such as lower than the cost price and disguised price reduction), otherwise they will be punished in accordance with laws and regulations. In the future, the stability of the real estate market is the trend.
2. Mainstream media voices. On November 12, the Economic Daily also published an article saying that the determination of real estate policy will not be relaxed. The implementation of various policies should take into account the relationship between "preventing excessively rapid rise" and "preventing excessive rapid decline" and effectively promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Housing prices are stable and unstable, related to the development of the real economy, so every place is keeping an eye on the development trend of the local property market, on the one hand, land transfer is an important source of local finance and taxation, on the other hand, the development of the real estate market can also drive the development of a large number of upstream and downstream industries. Therefore, those who have a house do not have to worry, and those who do not have a house do not need to be nervous. What do you think? #房地产 #