The traditional peak sales season of Nanjing's new housing market, "Golden Nine Silver Ten", has come to an end, and this year's "Golden Nine Silver Ten" has declined in subscription and transaction data compared with last year. In addition, due to the launch of the official registration system "Ning Xiaotong", many real estate projects under the guise of "hot sales" have also appeared in their original form.
Highlights collection
1. According to the statistics of "Real Estate Nanjing", this year's "Golden Nine Silver Ten" has opened a total of 169 times in the city, and 32,000 units have been launched (including projects that have been sold at the end of October and have not yet opened);
2. As of now, in 2021, the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" new houses have subscribed to 15652 sets and traded 9780 sets, compared with last year (19022 sets subscribed in 2020 and 11639 sets) have declined, of which the subscription volume fell by 17.72% year-on-year, and the transaction volume fell by 15.97% year-on-year;
3. As of 15:00 on November 1, the inventory of new houses in Nanjing is as high as 67,000 units;
4. Among the 169 openings, 37 times were sold out (including basically sold out), another 10 times the opening was more than 70%, there were 47 openings that needed to be drawn, and only 3 sets of comprehensive winning rates were within 10%;
5. According to Nanjing online real estate data, among the 169 openings, 34 opened less than 10 sets (including 10 sets), and 1 plate appeared to cover the situation;
6. According to the official registration system "Ning Xiaotong", 71 of the 169 openings have less than 10 applicants (including 10 people).
In July and September, the "two sets" soil auction successfully sold 41 plots, of which 25 were traded at the reserve price and 11 were at the top of the lottery, with a total transaction price of about 50.7 billion yuan.
Note: The data in this article is as of 15:00 on November 1, 2021, and the data is for reference only.
Data: "Golden Nine Silver Ten" subscription, transaction volume fell year-on-year, new housing inventory has exceeded 67,000 sets
According to Nanjing online real estate data, this year's "Golden Nine Silver Ten", Nanjing new houses subscribed a total of 15652 sets, 9780 sets of transactions (Note: October 1-7 this year, Nanjing online real estate did not upload data), the average daily subscription of 290 sets, the average daily transaction of 181 sets.
Last year, 2020 subscribed for 19,022 units and traded 11,639 units (Note: From October 1 to 7, 2020, Nanjing online real estate had data uploads), with an average daily subscription of 312 units and an average daily transaction of 191 units. This year's new home subscription transaction data has declined compared with last year, of which the subscription volume fell by 17.72% year-on-year and the transaction volume fell by 15.97% year-on-year.
By comparing the subscription and transaction data in the past 5 years, we can find that this year's subscription data is second only to 2020 and 2018, which is not much different from the 2019 data, but the transaction volume is only higher than that of 2018, ranking second from the bottom in the past 5 years.
On the other hand, as of now, the number of new houses available for sale in Nanjing has exceeded 67,000 units, which is at a high level.
Openings: 169 openings pushed nearly 33,000 units, and only 37 sold out
This year's "Golden Nine Silver Ten", within the city (including Lishui, Gaochun, including apartments, offices), a total of 169 openings, launched 32870 units, but the number of sold out is only 37 times (including basic sold out), and there are 10 times the overall dematerialization of more than 70%, which can be regarded as a hot sale.
In these 169 openings, there are 3 batches of centralized supply projects, which are 2 batches in September and 1 batch in October, a total of 29 openings, in addition to the 8 centralized supply projects at the end of October, the data has not yet been uploaded, and most of the 21 properties in September have been sold out.
In this batch of openings, 47 times the number of opens was when the number of applicants was greater than the number of listings pushed, and the lottery was carried out. Of the 47 lotteries, only 3 of the properties with a comprehensive winning rate of less than 10%, namely Vanke Emerald Binjiang in Hexi, Longhu Chunjiang Licheng in Jiangning and CCCC Jinfang in Jiangbei.
The 10 openings with the lowest combined winning rate
Affected by the policy that 1 house purchase certificate can only select 1 in the same batch of centralized supply projects for registration, the comprehensive winning rate of some regions has increased, such as the core area of Jiangbei, and even many times because the number of applicants is less than the number of houses pushed, and finally flat pushed.
The polarization of the overall "Golden Nine Silver Ten" is also very serious, and the opening of hot sales accounts for less than 30% of the city's opening times. According to the statistics of "Real Estate Nanjing", in September and October, 34 real estate projects were dematerialized less than 10 sets (including 10 sets), and 12 of them were opened to remove and hang zero (Note: These 34 real estate projects do not include projects that have been sold at the end of October and are uploading data). Most of these zero-hanging projects are gathered in areas such as Banqiao in the south of the city, Qixia Mountain in the north of the city, Liuhe in the north of the river, Lishui and Gaochun in the north of the city.
Qixia Mountain project dematerialization results
In addition, a real estate in Jiangbei has also appeared to cover the situation, the project has not been opened since the middle of September after receiving the sales permit.
On the other hand, due to the launch of the official registration system "Ning Xiaotong", the real number of applicants for many real estate projects has also been expressed. According to "Ning Xiaotong", of the 169 openings in September and October, 71 opened less than 10 people (including 10 people), accounting for more than 40% of the total number of openings. Among them, there were 32 openings without participation in the registration.
Soil auction: The second "two sets" soil auction 41 plots were sold, collecting 50.7 billion yuan
The performance of the new housing market is not as enthusiastic as in previous years, and the land market in Nanjing has also cooled down slightly.
In the second "two-episode" soil auction in Nanjing from September 26 to 27, a total of 41 plots were successfully sold, of which 25 were traded at the reserve price and 11 were at the top of the lottery, with a total transaction price of about 50.7 billion yuan. Compared with the first batch of centralized transfers before this land auction, the heat has dropped significantly, not only before the start of the auction, there are many plots of land that have been terminated, and the total transaction amount is almost waist-cut compared with about 99.3 billion yuan in the previous period.
From the perspective of developers, the land is mainly state-owned enterprises and central enterprises, according to gossip, many "top-notch" housing enterprises in this land auction actually gave up registration and did not participate in the competition of any plot.
However, compared with other cities, Nanjing's land market is still stable. In addition, the rough price limit of many areas such as Jiangxinzhou and Gulou Binjiang has been increased in this soil auction, which has also laid a new pattern of housing prices in these areas.
Looking at this year's "Golden Nine Silver Ten", it is not difficult for us to find that the polarization of the new housing market in Nanjing is becoming more and more serious, affected by policies, many sectors that were once hot, after the withdrawal of a group of investors, the true face of today is gradually revealed.
However, through the hot real estate, the area where the hot land is located, the market feedback in the core areas of the southern new city, Hexi and Jiangbei is still relatively strong, although there are phenomena such as flat pushing, unsold, and the winning rate of the core area in Jiangbei, the overall performance in the region is still relatively stable.
This also shows that the current market buyers' demand for property is still based on self-occupation demand, just recently in the Nanjing land market online hanging out of the third batch of this year's "two concentrations" plots, but also for the first time for the quality of the project put forward requirements, Southwest Hebei G111-G115 plots require the building façade of the plot must use high-quality plate materials, which is also the first batch of "fixed quality" plots in Southwest Hexi.
Whether it is the new housing market or the land market, various policies and methods are used to return the housing to the essence of residence. The performance of this year's "Golden Nine Silver Ten" also proves this point, investors are gradually withdrawing, and self-residents have become the mainstream of the market. Objective factors such as location, supporting facilities, and product quality will affect whether the real estate can really sell well.
In addition, in order to sprint the annual task, many developers may usher in a large number of real estate markets before the end of the year. However, at present, the inventory of new houses in Nanjing is under the high pressure of 67,000 sets, in addition to the popular plates, the speed of dematerialization of the rest of the plates is still relatively slow, before the end of the year, will the inventory of new houses in Nanjing reach a new high? The answer will be available soon.