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Summary: The official early warning: pigs will reach the peak in April next year! Do not blindly press the fence to avoid heavy losses in the later stage; hundreds of pig farms are "rotten tails", and piglets are sold cheaply as roast suckling pigs; "vegetables are more expensive than meat"! Last year, I was so poor that I couldn't afford to eat pork, and this year I was so poor that I could only eat pork; CCTV: Farming enterprises lost 10 years of profits in 9 months! When will the market meet the bottom; the local pig price exceeds 9 yuan / catty! Hog futures are strongly up and down.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="75" > officially issued an early warning: pigs will reach the peak in April next year! Do not blindly press the fence to avoid heavy losses in the later stage</h1>
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released the news on October 26 that since mid-October, pork prices have rebounded from shocks, and the supply of the pig market is loose and abundant. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recommends that farm households continue to eliminate low-yield sows to cope with the possible downturn after the Spring Festival next year.
Monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that at present, pig production is still growing inertia, and the downward price cycle is not over. It is expected that the fattening pigs listed in the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year will increase significantly year-on-year, the supply of pigs is relatively sufficient, the downward pressure on prices is still not small, if there is no substantial reduction in production capacity, the downturn in pig prices is difficult to reverse. Especially in February and March next year, the number of pigs out of the pen will continue to increase, and the peak of the barn may be reached in April. This period of time is precisely the off-season of consumption after the Spring Festival next year, with the increase in pig production, pig prices may continue to decline, resulting in heavy losses in pig breeding.
To this end, it is recommended that farm households should arrange pigs out of the barn in an orderly manner, do not blindly press the fence because of the current pig price recovery, and do not rush to expand production capacity to avoid heavy losses in the later stage.
New Pastoral Comments: According to the current pig market, the risk of betting on the market is still quite large, and the orderly arrangement of insurance is on the bar.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="78" > hundreds of pig farms "rotten tails", piglets are sold as roast suckling pigs</h1>
Wang Quan, a veteran of the pig breeding industry, told reporters: "After the explosive growth of the previous two years, the leading enterprises in the pig industry have fallen into deep losses, and large-scale losses have led to the industry entering a 'cold winter', and some pig dragons have appeared in pig farms across the country. ”
Lin Lin, the person in charge of a pig breeding enterprise in the central region, told reporters that at present, there is a dilemma in some parts of the country where piglets frequently drop prices and no one cares, and the breeding business owners can do nothing about it, and can only choose to sell to the roast suckling pig shop vendors at a price of 20-30 yuan per piglet, which has triggered the roast suckling pig business in some places.
"The 'rotten tail' of the pig farm project has attracted the attention of the relevant parties in Hunan, and farmers, pig farm contractors, investors, etc. are involved, and it is conservatively estimated that these projects have basically lost 5 billion to 6 billion yuan." On October 17, Bai Yan, the head of the enterprise that has been engaged in the pig breeding industry for more than 20 years, told reporters. Entering 2021, with the ebb and flow of pig dividends, pig breeding leaders have successively lost money, and "rotten tail" pig farm projects have also begun to appear.
Wang Quan told reporters that affected by the continuous decline in pig prices, some leading pig breeding enterprises have suffered serious losses, and many projects invested in Hunan in the early stage have stopped, which has also caused many pig farm projects to have a "rotten tail", "There are hundreds of 'rotten tail' pig farm projects in Hunan province alone." Compared with the crazy capacity expansion in the early stage, the pace of pig production capacity expansion of such leading enterprises has slowed down a lot, and some companies originally planned to build farms in Hunan to breed 800,000 sows, and now there may be 80,000 sows."
New Pastoral Comments: Stop loss in time, leading pig enterprises can not afford to lose. Until the pig production capacity situation is clear, it is a good choice to let go.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="79" > "vegetables are more expensive than meat"! Last year I was so poor that I couldn't afford to eat pork, and this year I was so poor that I could only eat pork</h1>
Recently, residents in many parts of China have felt the rise in vegetable prices. According to the weekly price monitoring report of the National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from October 15 to October 22, the average price of 19 kinds of vegetables in the 286 wholesale markets of the country was 4.87 yuan / kg, an increase of 11.6% over the previous week and a year-on-year increase of 27.4%. Among the 19 vegetable prices monitored, cauliflower, eggplant, spinach, beans and celery led the increase, all of which increased by more than 16% month-on-month.
According to reports, the price of vegetables has risen continuously, many people have called out, "vegetables are more expensive than meat", such as spinach this round of rise, its increase in the markets around the world are among the best, in some farmers markets in Shenzhen, spinach prices are up to more than 20 yuan a catty. A number of vegetable merchants said that since last week, vegetable prices have continued to rise.
Some netizens joked that last year was too poor to eat pork, and this year it was so poor that it could only eat pork!
New Pastoral Comments: The pig market in the past two years is really confusing, last year's pig prices hit a record high, but this year's farmers have lost a mess.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="50" > CCTV: Farming enterprises lose 10 years of profits in 9 months! When will the market meet the bottom? </h1>
Recently, CCTV Finance focused on pig breeding and interviewed a number of industry insiders. What will be the next trend of pork prices? What is the impact of the continuous decline in pork prices on farmers?
Pork prices continue to fall, which greatly affects the enthusiasm of farmers. Zheng Zhijian, who has been engaged in pig breeding in Yunfu City, Guangdong Province for nearly a decade, told reporters that the sales price of pigs is now lower than the cost of raising pigs, so he had to quit pig breeding early and raise ducks in the original pig house.
Zheng Zhijian, a farmer in Yunfu City, Guangdong Province: Now raising a pig has lost hundreds of yuan, the market has not improved, the bigger the pig is raised, the higher the cost, the more it loses, and it is sold in advance. Farmers were forced to change careers, and the losses of pig breeding enterprises that are still sticking to continue to expand, especially in February and March this year, the breeding enterprises that bought pig seedlings at high prices have now sold a pig with a net loss of up to thousands of yuan.
Mei Jinfang, vice president of Wen's shares: The comprehensive cost is 11 yuan per kilogram, and the average pig is 235 kilograms, which is equivalent to the cost of a pig of 2500 yuan, but now a pig sells for about 1400 yuan.
Xie Yongdong, vice president of Shenzhen Jingji Zhinong Times Co., Ltd.: If you use a simple sentence to summarize the situation of this industry, only one word is miserable. Because all enterprises are in a state of loss, and it is a huge loss, some companies basically lost the profits of the past 10 years in 9 months.
Xinmu comments: This year's market has made many pig farmers untouchable, and the loss situation is also shocking to drop their jaws.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="80" > local pig price exceeded 9 yuan / catty! Hog futures are strongly up and down</h1>
After entering October, the price of pigs rose to the sky, the market continued to impact the new highs of the stage, and the increase in pig prices also showed an aggravating trend. At present, the average price of lean pigs in the country has entered the 8 yuan mark, and some parts of Guangdong have exceeded 9 yuan / catty. Compared with the beginning of the month of 5.1 yuan / catty, this round of pig prices rose by more than 50%, and the pig price from the "5 word head" to the "8 word head", it only took less than 20 days, farmers can be described as "one step hell, one step heaven", many farmers are frankly "too exciting"!
In the early session of October 25, the main pig contract jumped sharply in the morning, and the intraday limit was once sealed for about 40 minutes, and then the increase narrowed slightly, and as of the morning close, it was still more than 6% higher than the closing price of the previous trading day; the 2111 contract continued to seal the limit in recent months.
According to the analysis of Zhang Xiaojun of Green Dahua Futures, the main reasons for the recent continuous rebound in pig prices are three aspects: first, the demand for fat pigs has increased, and the breeding end has reappeared in the pressure fence; second, the terminal consumption has picked up, and the slaughter volume has continued to rise; third, the central and local pork storage will continue to be carried out.
New Pastoral Comments: How long can this round of rise last, and it is expected that it will rise to the cost line, and the farmers' life will be better.