This year's pig industry can be described as turbulent, its price has been constantly changing, but it has been unable to rise above the 8 yuan mark, and the breeding cost of pig farmers is about 8.5 yuan, if it is a large pig enterprise, the cost is higher, so that pig farmers are still in loss.
Pig prices are low, on the one hand, the consumption demand for pork is reduced, although the price of pork is reduced, but the hot consumption is still not strong; on the other hand, the pig has recovered to the basic level, after all, in the past 2 years, the national policy has been continuous, because a pig can earn more than 2,000 yuan, driving everyone's enthusiasm for pig raising, in 2020 alone, 77,600 pig enterprises were added. Pig losses this year are serious, but there are still 26,000 new pig enterprises in January-June.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="4" >01, pig prices "3 consecutive increases"</h1>
However, since August, with the arrival of the Autumn Festival, the custom of "sticking autumn fat" has also driven pork sales. Coupled with the serious losses of pig farmers, there is an urgent upward demand for the pig market, which has led to a wave of price increases.
Today's average pig price has risen to 15.47 yuan / kg, compared with the previous day rose by 0.02 yuan, pig prices have also "3 consecutive rises". From the perspective of the rise and fall of various places, today's pig prices have generally ushered in a stable and strong trend, of which the northeast market is 13.9-14.5 yuan / kg, Liaoning fell 0.1 yuan; the northwest market is stable and falling, the pig price is 13.5-15.2 yuan / kg, of which Shaanxi fell 0.1 yuan; the north China market is stable and weak, the pig price is 14.3-15.1 yuan / kg, of which Shanxi fell 0.15 yuan.
The overall stability of the northern region is mainly due to the strong price-carrying mentality of pig farmers, and the amount of large-scale pig farms has decreased significantly, which makes it more difficult for slaughtering enterprises to collect pigs, so it is difficult to suppress prices, but slaughtering enterprises are unwilling to increase prices.
East China market is stable and rising, pig prices are 15.6-16.7 yuan / kg, of which Jiangsu and Zhejiang rose 0.1 yuan; southwest ushered in a wave of big rise, the increase of 0.1-0.3 yuan / kg, the mainstream price of 14.45-15.4 yuan / kg, of which Chongqing rebounded 0.3 yuan, Guizhou rebounded 0.25 yuan; central China rose and fell, pig prices of 15.6-16.3 yuan / kg, Among them, Xianggan rose by 0.15-0.2 yuan, Henan fell by 0.1 yuan; the market in South China was stable, and the price was 16.5-19.5 yuan / kg.
The southern region is obviously more obvious, the procurement of slaughter enterprises is more difficult, and pig farmers are not willing to go out of the barn, and Jiangsu, Wuhan and other places are restricted by transportation, which has led to an increase in pig prices.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="26" >02, 10 yuan pig price has a play? </h1>
At present, there are not too many big pigs in pig farms today, and the average weight of the barn returns to normal levels, which also means that there are not too many factors that hinder the rebound of pig prices, but there are more favorable factors supporting pig prices in the future:
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="28" >1, the cost of imported pork is high</h1>
In the first half of this year, China imported 2.3 million tons of pork, of which 340,000 tons were imported in June, and environmental protection fell by 7.13% and fell by 11.92% year-on-year, which shows that pork imports have decreased. As for why imports have decreased, the cost of imported meat has been higher than that of domestic pork due to the impact of freight and tariffs.
At present, the cost of imported meat is about 11-12 yuan, but at present, there is 8-10 yuan of retail pork on the northern rural market, and the pork in the supermarket is also about 10-12 yuan, which shows that the advantages of imported meat are no longer, and then the import is reduced, the demand for fresh meat consumption increases, and the price will inevitably rise.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="29" >2, consumer demand increased</h1>
Pork consumption is regular, and usually the traditional peak consumption season is from August to the following Spring Festival. With the opening of the school, the canteen will also accelerate the purchase of pork in mid-to-late August, coupled with the arrival of the "promotion banquet", which will once again drive a wave of rising periods.
In September, as the temperature dropped, household consumption increased, and the start of farming and the arrival of the double festival all drove a wave of sales.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="30" >3</h1>
The recent rebound in pig prices, in fact, has a lot to do with policy support, in order to stabilize pig prices, reduce the loss of pig farmers, the official has introduced a number of policies, such as setting up a 3-level early warning system, opening storage, and now proposed to establish a pig counter-cyclical mechanism, once the loss of 3 months, or sow month-on-month fall of more than 10%, will provide a one-time subsidy. In this way, pig farmers naturally have the bottom of the bar.
In this way, it is expected that pig prices may usher in a wave of rise in September, and it is not impossible to rise below 10 yuan at that time.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="27" >03, can I take the opportunity to fill the column? </h1>
Due to the intensification of pig losses, many people dare not make up the fence, and as a result, today's piglets have been "rotten", and prices have also ushered in a sharp decline. For example, the average price of piglets in Zhengbang in July was 287.21 yuan, while the average price of piglets at the beginning of the year was 1540 yuan, a drop of more than 80%, and today's piglet prices zhengbang can not even get back the cost.
The price of folk piglets is lower, such as a pig farmer in Linyi said that the local piglets are 8 yuan a pound and are bought as "roast suckling pigs", and the sales volume is very impressive; a pig farmer in Xingtai said that the local piglets are 200 yuan, because the price is cheap, many pig farmers can only raise themselves.
At present, there is a backlog of piglets in the market, and the price is too low to sell at a loss, but it is not sold to raise and worry about the cost behind. Someone calculated an account, with today's piglet cost, it is expected that the cost can be controlled at 7-7.5 yuan after raising, and now can take the opportunity to make up for the rise?
In fact, the author believes that if the cost of piglets is controlled between 200-300 yuan, it can still be supplemented, even if it is self-propagation and self-raising, it is also this cost, but the next breeding should be based on the principle of "open source and throttling", control the cost, and strive for the cost between 7-8 yuan, so that when it is sold years ago, it will certainly not lose money, what do you think?