"When the eyes of the whole world are on the people who are evacuated and the planes that leave, we need to deliver supplies to help those who stay there." As medical supplies to Afghanistan are hampered by controls at Kabul International Airport, Richard Brennan, Director of Regional Emergencies of the World Health Organization, made such an appeal. As the multinational withdrawal comes to an end, Afghanistan is facing the threat of a looming economic and humanitarian crisis. After nearly half a month of returning to power, what kind of predicament does the Taliban face in Afghanistan?
Nanfang Daily reported on August 29, page 6
On the 26th, a suicide bomb attack occurred outside the airport of Kabul, the afghan capital, according to US media sources, the attack has caused at least 170 deaths, including 13 US soldiers. At this time, it had been nearly half a month since the Taliban had entered Kabul, the Afghan capital, and returned to power. What challenges do the Taliban face in terms of governance, economy and diplomacy in the midst of the unrelenting war?
Government formation
The vision of an "inclusive government" still needs consensus
Taliban spokesman Suhair Shaheen said in an interview on the 23rd that it is crucial for all people, including Afghan politicians and afghan people, to become part of the future inclusive government.
Because the Taliban have not clearly explained the concept of "inclusive government", there is still speculation about this idea. Wang Jin, associate professor at the Middle East Institute of Northwest University and researcher at the Center for Syrian Studies, believes that an "inclusive government" requires that all parties in Afghanistan cannot be tough on leading power, and even needs to voluntarily give up some of their power, which also means that all parties need to give the government itself enough power and full trust, otherwise it is difficult to truly reach a consensus.
Afghan Taliban militants on the streets of Herat, Afghanistan's third largest city. Xinhua News Agency
Wang Jin argues that governments dominated by Islamic political forces are often faced with the question of how to deal with the relationship between religious authority and realpolitik practice. Atta's choice to continue the name "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" may mean that the power of an "inclusive government" will be constrained to some extent.
In addition to meeting its commitment to an "inclusive government" to avoid excluding dissidents and combating controversy, Zhang Chuchu, an associate researcher at Fudan University's School of International Relations and Public Affairs and the Center for middle East Studies, believes that the new government that Atta plans to form also need to implement moderate reforms and cut off from terrorist organizations before it can gain universal acceptance from the international community.
Due to the harsh restrictions imposed on women when they last came to power, international public opinion has paid close attention to whether the Taliban can protect women's rights and interests. Despite the Taliban's signals of "moderation", promising to "allow women to go out, work and receive education alone" and "to safeguard women's rights and freedoms in accordance with Sharia law", some international opinion remains on the sidelines of the prospects for the situation of Afghan women.
People sit on an airstrip at an airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, on Aug. 16. Xinhua News Agency
On August 24, Afghan Taliban spokesman Zabiula Mujahid said at a news conference that Afghan working women must stay at home in the near future until a proper system is in place to keep women safe. Although Mujahid stressed that this would be a "very short-term policy" and that women would not be banned from working forever, it undoubtedly deepened concerns. The Taliban may need to take more concrete measures to gain public confidence in their handling of women's rights.
Economic dilemma
Strive to improve relations with other countries
Since the Afghan Taliban entered Kabul, the assets of the Afghan central bank have been frozen by the United States and other countries, and the International Monetary Fund has cut off Afghanistan's access to special drawing rights. On August 24, the World Bank also announced a moratorium on its projects in Afghanistan.
The BBC noted that the Afghan economy is extremely fragile, with about 40 per cent of Afghanistan's gross domestic product dependent on international aid and 4 per cent on remittances from abroad, according to the World Bank. The disruption of international aid channels has triggered a rapid depreciation of Afghanistan's local currency, making it difficult for people to access supplies. At the same time, the epidemic situation in Afghanistan is becoming more severe, with food shortages, high poverty rates, and health systems "on the verge of collapse", and multiple crises are happening at the same time.
Streets in Kabul, Afghanistan, on August 26. Xinhua News Agency
Zhang Chuchu said that despite receiving a large amount of funding from the United States, the Afghan government has not been able to improve the country's weak economic foundation, lack of a complete industrial system and other difficulties, but also there are problems such as rampant corruption and poor investment environment, resulting in the country's formal economic development is insufficient, and the economic system is heavily dependent on international assistance.
In response to the possible economic and financial crisis, Atta announced on August 20 on social media that it would seek to improve diplomatic and trade relations with all countries. On the 23rd, the Afghan Taliban appointed Haji Mohammed Idris as acting governor of the Central Bank of Afghanistan.
Zhang Chuchu believes that although the Afghan Taliban is working hard to resolve economic difficulties, Afghanistan will face three major problems during the reconstruction of the country, namely, the rampant illegal economy, the tearing of the urban-rural dual structure, and the flight of capital. At the same time, managing relations with political forces and distributing political power will remain the focus of the Afghan Taliban's work for a long time, and boosting the economy and improving people's well-being may be placed on the back burner.
Diplomatic challenges
U.S. says "harsh conditions" will be set on Atta
On August 19, shortly after the Afghan Taliban announced the formation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, Mujahid expressed his desire for better diplomatic and trade relations with all countries through social networking sites. Previously, Taliban negotiators have also repeatedly stressed the desire to maintain normal relations with the United States and other foreign governments.
Afghan Taliban spokesman Zabiula Mujahid, left, speaks at the first press conference held by the Taliban after entering Kabul on August 17. Xinhua News Agency
According to CCTV News, the US government said on the 27th that the US side is not eager to recognize the Afghan Taliban regime in any form. White House spokeswoman Jane Psaki said in response to a reporter's question on the same day: "I want to make it clear: The United States and any international partners we have talked to are not in a hurry to recognize [the Taliban regime] in any form." US President Biden also told media reporters on the 20th that the United States will consult with other countries to set "strict conditions" for recognizing the Taliban regime or cooperating with it.
Reuters reported that britain, the rotating chairman of the group of seven this year, said that if the Taliban violate human rights or shield armed groups, the group of seven should consider imposing economic sanctions or suspending aid to Afghanistan.
Members of the Afghan Taliban photographed on the streets of Kabul. Xinhua News Agency
In an interview on the 23rd, Suhair Shaheen pointed out that the economic sanctions against the Taliban promoted by the Group of Seven are biased. At a time when the Afghan people are in need of cooperation and financial support, the Group of Seven is discussing sanctions, which is a form of hostility to the Afghan people.
Zhang Chuchu believes that the previous sanctions imposed by Western countries on Iraq, Iran, etc. have failed to achieve the desired purpose, proving that unilateral sanctions have played a small role in changing a country's behavior. The use of sanctions will only exacerbate the plight of the people's livelihood in the sanctioned countries and bring pain to the local people. The negative impact is particularly pronounced in Afghanistan, where its economy is highly dependent on foreign aid.
Zhang Chuchu pointed out that the Afghan people are facing multiple threats such as the epidemic, economic crisis, and food shortage, and the international community should provide humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan to avoid triggering more serious humanitarian disasters. In particular, all countries should try to promote negotiations between the afghan forces, avoid irresponsible behaviors such as supporting proxies, willful intervention or withdrawal, and sanctions at the slightest disagreement, and take the effective promotion of peace and stability in Afghanistan as an important purpose in dealing with the Afghan problem.
[Reporter in Beijing] Ling Xi
[Reporter] Feng Yingyan
【Planner】Li Zhuo
【Author】 Ling Xi; Feng Yingyan; Li Zhuo
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