In 2020, international tourist arrivals decreased by 1 billion year-on-year, and global tourism revenue lost about $1.3 trillion. With the launch of the "Vaccine Passport" and the "International Travel Health Certificate", when can international tourism press the "restart button" has become a topic of concern in the industry and consumers.
A paper sample of the Chinese version of the "International Travel Health Certificate". (Picture from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs "Consular Express" WeChat public account)
Bidding farewell to the difficult and epidemic year of 2020, as the global covid-19 epidemic prevention and control situation gradually improves, the global economy urgently needs to fully recover, the demand for international exchanges of personnel is becoming more and more urgent, and the international tourism industry has regained confidence and looks forward to getting out of the predicament at an early date. At present, the number of new confirmed cases in the world is showing an overall downward trend, countries and regions with better epidemic control, personnel mobility and social exchanges are gradually on the right track, factors conducive to the recovery of international tourism are increasing, and the suppressed demand for outbound tourism is waiting to be released. When global international tourism can press the "restart button" has become a topic of concern for the industry and consumers. Some international public opinion is optimistic that the pace of recovery of international tourism is expected to accelerate. So, is the much-awaited cross-border tourism industry likely to reopen in the second half of this year, as some forecasts suggest, thereby injecting a shot in the arm for the almost year-old global economy?
In the past 10 years, the development of international tourism has continued to improve, and the number of overseas tourists around the world has maintained positive growth every year. After the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, global outbound tourism has suffered a surprisingly heavy blow, and countries have introduced international tourism restrictions, and the door of the global tourism economy has to be closed tightly. According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization, international tourists fell by 1 billion year-on-year in 2020, a decrease of about 74%, and the global tourism revenue loss was about 1.3 trillion US dollars, and 2020 was called "the worst year in the history of tourism".
In March this year, the United Nations World Tourism Organization analyzed in a survey report that due to the impact of the epidemic, about 1/3 of the world's tourist destinations are currently "completely closed" to international tourists, and about 1/3 of the tourist destinations are controlled. Although since the second half of 2020, many governments have gradually relaxed travel control measures, uncertainties such as the local recurrence of the global epidemic situation in many places and the mutation of the new crown virus have forced countries to tighten control measures again. The United Nations World Tourism Organization released a report on March 8 this year that as of early February, 69 of the world's 217 tourist destinations were "completely closed" to international tourists, including 30 in the Asia-Pacific region.
Accelerating the recovery of global tourism is related to the process of global economic recovery and the operation of the economies of various countries. In the face of the challenge of how to boost the economy under the epidemic, the international community's general response attitude is both open and cautious, actively adapting to and assessing the new international tourism market environment under the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, and steadily promoting the orderly opening up of international tourism. Many countries have called for the implementation of "vaccine passports" to promote the circulation of people, and the European Union and Singapore, Thailand, South Korea and other countries plan to launch "vaccine passports". A few days ago, China also announced the launch of the Chinese version of the "International Travel Health Certificate", in order to promote the global economic recovery and cross-border personnel exchange facilitation put forward a practical "China plan", advocating that the holder's nucleic acid, serum igg antibody test results and vaccinations, etc., under the premise of ensuring that personal privacy is protected, to the relevant departments of various countries for verification and reading, and actively promote the rapid and accurate identification of international health codes and the international mutual recognition of "vaccine passports". At present, China has actively communicated with relevant countries through bilateral channels around specific ideas, technical solutions, etc., and strives to promote the gradual recovery of international tourism and international economic and trade activities.
The extent to which the implementation of the "vaccine passport" and "international travel health certificate" on a global scale can promote the recovery of international tourism and cross-border exchanges of people requires full communication, complementary strengths and cooperation between countries on the one hand, to build a united front for epidemic prevention and control on a global scale, and on the other hand, how to deal with the obstacles and challenges in the process of comprehensively lifting control and releasing international tourism.
First, the epidemic situation in some countries has not been fundamentally controlled, and the inflection point of the global epidemic has not really arrived. According to the Statistics of the Washington Post on the Global Epidemic, as of March 8, although the growth rate of new confirmed cases in the global week has slowed down, the number of cases in some countries, including the United States and Brazil, is still at a high level, and there has been a rebound in south America, the Middle East and North Africa and Europe, and the number of new confirmed cases in the week has increased.
Second, the international mutual recognition of "vaccine passports" and "international travel health certificates" takes time to promote their realization. The "vaccine passport" and the "international travel health certificate" are still in the early stages, including the scope of mutual recognition between countries, the validity period of the certificate, and how the certification system is regulated. The operability of this measure depends on the development of the global epidemic situation, for example, the risk of infection in the event of a mutation or large-scale epidemic of the virus in the destination country.
Third, the global vaccination situation is complex and the progress of herd immunity is slow. On March 15, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council pressed a press conference that China is promoting COVID-19 vaccination in an orderly manner in accordance with key groups, high-risk groups and other groups, and as of March 14, a total of 64.98 million people have been vaccinated against the new crown virus in China. Globally, vaccinations are not even across countries, and the World Health Organization is working to promote equalization of vaccinations to help poor and less developed countries fight the epidemic. As early as February 5 this year, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus pointed out at the regular press conference on the new crown pneumonia epidemic that more than 3/4 of the new crown vaccinations occurred in 10 developed countries, which accounted for 60% of the world's GDP, and there were 2.5 billion people in nearly 130 countries who had not yet been vaccinated against the new crown virus, and suggested that countries with the ability to share vaccines with other countries, expand vaccine production and sell them at cost prices, and unite and cooperate for the global fight against the epidemic. According to the African Center for Disease Control and Prevention on March 17, COVID-19 vaccination has been further launched in many African countries.
Fourth, there are still many unknowns about the characteristics and effective prevention and treatment of the new crown virus, which need to be followed up and studied and explored. For vaccine research and development, safety and efficacy are the most important considerations, at present, the world's vaccine research and development is multi-way, comprehensive layout, it takes a certain amount of time to ensure that vaccination forms a safe and effective medical security.
Therefore, if the global international tourism industry is to be restarted and the cross-border movement of people is to be liberalized, there are still a lot of meticulous and professional prevention and control work to be prepared. In addition, the introduction of the "vaccine passport" requires a series of scientific demonstrations, including the production of antibodies after vaccination, whether it will still carry the virus, and the effectiveness period of vaccination, etc., which need to be demonstrated, tested and determined.
From this point of view, with the continuous improvement of the normalization of the global epidemic prevention and control measures and the continuous expansion of the scope of vaccination, the international tourism industry is expected to restart in an orderly manner around the world, but the full recovery will take time, or it may be gradually recovered from regional international tourism in areas with better epidemic control and under the condition that the prevention and control means are mature and effective. At present, the international tourism industry needs to work together on a global scale to adopt precise travel control measures and build a community of human health and health that is strictly guarded against the epidemic. Countries must still be more cautious and take strict measures to reopen inbound and outbound tourism. In the future global fight against the epidemic, international cooperation will highlight its importance, and countries need to jointly maintain and promote the steady recovery of international tourism in the post-epidemic era through active communication, joint cooperation and consensus. To be sure, when international tourism fully recovers, it will be an important landmark in the global fight against COVID-19.
(The author is an associate researcher at the Institute of Foreign Studies, Beijing Academy of Social Sciences)
Source: China Culture Daily