In May 1863, Shi Dakai's 14th wife, Liu Wangniang, gave birth to a son, Shi Dingji, and Shi Dakai, the king of the wing, smiled happily, believing that this was a good sign. In order to celebrate his son's birthday, Shi Dakai ordered the soldiers to drink for three days and three nights, only to encounter a flood that broke out and the Qing army chased after him, and the Taiping army fell into a desperate situation. At this time, Shi Dakai decided to take the initiative to "please surrender", hoping that Luo Bingzhang would open up and save the lives of his soldiers.
Luo Bingzhang did not accept the "request to surrender", Shi Dakai was lingchi, 2,000 elites were executed, and 4,000 old and weak were repatriated. At this point, Shi Dakai, who had been alone for six years, defeated the Dadu River and the entire army was destroyed. At first, Shi Dakai wanted to cross the river to attack Chengdu and establish a base in Sichuan, but he defeated the Dadu River. So, if Shi Dakai does not celebrate his son's birthday, he will successfully cross the Dadu River and be able to take Chengdu? In fact, from the perspective of the combat effectiveness of the Taiping Army, Shi Dakai would defeat Chengdu, and the outcome did not change.
Chengdu, located on the Sichuan Plain, is the core area of the "Kingdom of Heavenly Capital" and a strategic place in the great southwest, heavily defended by the Qing army. In 1644, the Qing army entered the pass, pursued Li Zicheng all the way, besieged Zhang Xianzhong all the way, and stationed eight banners in Chengdu, Sichuan, with more than 4,000 troops. In the late Qing Dynasty, the Eight Banners were already vulnerable, but Luo Bingzhang brought more than 8,000 Xiang troops such as Liu Yuezhao, and the strength of the troops in the city was still very strong.
To attack Chengdu, Shi Dakai had to face three major difficulties, none of which could be solved. First of all, Chengdu is located on the plain, with land and water transportation in all directions, and the nearby Qing army can be reinforced at any time. Second, there were 12 important rivers near Chengdu, such as the Min River and the Tuo River, which was a pressure on the Taiping Army. Finally, Chengdu was large, with strong walls and not easy to attack.
From the perspective of the combat effectiveness of the Taiping Army, even if Shi Da drove across the Dadu River, he would not be able to take Chengdu. Fighting the Qing army on the plains across the river, and attacking the fortified city, Shi Dakai simply could not do it. In this way, Shi Dakai would still lose the army and had no chance of winning.
In July 1859, Shi Dakai's army defeated Baoqing, and 100,000 elites were lost, and they fled back to their hometown in Guixian County, Guangxi. Then, Shi Dakai recruited a group of Heaven and Earth Associations, scattered soldiers, and goblins, and cobbled together a team of 60,000 people, and then killed Sichuan, trying to capture Chengdu and establish a base area.
Nominally, Shi Dakai commanded 60,000 soldiers and horses, but the combat effectiveness was worrying. When Shi Dakai arrived at the Dadu River, the chief general Lai Yuxin had already been killed on the battlefield, and the only general who could take it was Li Fuyou. Just imagine, a group of temporarily recruited soldiers, can defeat the Xiang army on the plains? The answer is no, the Xiang Army under Luo Bingzhang is all elite in hundreds of battles, far from being comparable to the Taiping Army.
When the Battle of Dadu River broke out, the Xiang army did not enter the battle, and shi Dakai was engaged by the local Tusi army, as well as the Qing army of Tang You's cultivation department, which were all third-rate troops of the Qing Dynasty. Even so, Shi Dakai still couldn't win the fight, and had been suppressed by Wang Yingyuan, and the result was only "please surrender" to negotiate conditions with Luo Bingzhang. Tusi couldn't win the battle, let alone the Xiang Army, and Shi Dakai had no chance of winning.
The lack of water divisions was again a major weakness of the Taiping Army, and Shi Dakai never solved this problem. In the early days of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom, the strength of the sailors was basically composed of civilian boats, fishing boats, etc., and the number of ships was large, but there was no combat effectiveness. The Xiang Army is different, the warships are carefully built, and they are also equipped with Western artillery, and their combat effectiveness is very strong.
After several major battles, the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom Marine Division lost everything, which was negligible. When Shi Da went his own way, there were many soldiers and horses under his command, and the soldiers had high morale and slaughtered in a mighty way to Jiangxi. The result? Shi Dakai tossed around on the east bank of the Ganjiang River in Jiangxi for three months, but he could not cross the river to reinforce Ji'an, Jishui, and Ruizhou; the Xiang Army's marine division shelled, and Shi Dakai was unable to cross the river.
In the Chengdu Plain, the rivers crisscross each other, and Shi Dakai has no water division, how can he win? Imagine that tens of thousands of Taiping troops besieged Chengdu, and the Xiang Army's water division intercepted the river surface and cut off the taiping army's grain transportation line under the city, how could Shi Dakai eat it, and what did he use against the Xiang Army's water division?
Lacking the strength of the water division, Shi Dakai did not have the capital to attack Chengdu, as long as the war entered a state of stalemate, Shi Dakai could only be trapped and killed, surrounded by the Qing army, and the result was that the entire army was destroyed. In addition, Shi Dakai was lightly armed, did not carry heavy siege weapons, and wanted to seize a strong city, only by surprise attack, or temporary tools.
The surprise attack on Chengdu obviously had no chance of success, because the governor Luo Bingzhang was defending the city. It should be known that when Shi Dakai attacked Baoqing, he had 100,000 soldiers and horses under his command, and the combat effectiveness of the soldiers was also strong, but the result was still defeated by Luo Bingzhang. It can be said that for Shi Dakai, Luo Bingzhang has the confidence to win and will not let the raid succeed.
As for making tools, this is even more unlikely. First of all, it takes time to make tools, and the Xiang Army will not give Shi Dakai time. Secondly, manufacturing tools need raw materials, where does Shi Dakai go to get raw materials. Finally, Shi Dakai didn't even have a fixed base, where to make tools? Therefore, this road will not work.
The Taiping Army's combat effectiveness, without the assistance of a powerful marine division, still advanced lightly, and it was impossible to fight the Qing army on the Chengdu Plain and then seize the city. Even if Shi Da drove across the Dadu River and then began to organize troops to attack the city, he would still lose, and there was no probability of victory.
It can be deduced that the battle situation, Shi Da drove across the river and rushed to Chengdu, relying on the numerical superiority to attack the city. At this time, the governor Luo Bingzhang led the Xiang army to strictly defend, the Taiping Army raid failed, and Shi Dakai set up a large camp under the city, preparing to fight a protracted battle and trying to trap the defenders in the city.
When the war entered a stalemate phase, Luo Bingzhang sent sailors to blockade the river, cut off the Taiping Army's grain transportation line, and mobilized various soldiers and horses to reinforce and attack the Taiping Army. In this way, the pattern of the Battle of Quzhou and the Battle of Baoqing was staged again, and Shi Dakai was counter-encircled. The Taiping army was attacked from inside and outside, and Shi Dakai could only withdraw his army and was defeated again.
Bibliography: History of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom