Domestic humanoid robots are good again!
On April 27, Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center released the general humanoid robot platform "Tiangong", as a general platform for humanoid robots independently developed in China, it will become the basis for the development of various new robots.
With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, humanoid robots, as the most suitable hardware equipment for artificial intelligence, are expected to become the first year of mass production in 2024.
However, before the humanoid robot is completely perfected, the automation in the industrial field needs to continue to significantly increase the number of industrial robots, so as to continue to maintain the dominant position of the world's largest manufacturing country.
At the same time, the perfect industrial chain of industrial robots will also become the biggest boost for the mass production of domestic humanoid robots, so that humanoid robots can enter all walks of life faster.
So, how is the industrial robot industry chain distributed? Which links are the most important?
The industrial robot industry chain can mainly include three major links: the core components of upstream robots, the manufacturing of midstream robots and the integration and application of downstream robot systems.
From a global perspective, the field of industrial robots has long been dominated by the four major international companies, namely Fanuc of Japan, Yaskawa Electric of Japan, Kuka of Germany, and ABB of Switzerland, with a global market share of more than 50% for a long time, and the market pattern is relatively stable.
In terms of the domestic market, in recent years, with the continuous development of domestic robot technology, domestic manufacturers such as Eston and Inovance Technology have risen, and the share of the four major companies has fallen from 70% to about 40%.
Among the top 10 domestic industrial robots in 2023, the sales volume of domestic manufacturers such as Estun, Inovance Technology, and EFORT will continue to increase, ranking second, fourth, and eighth respectively.
From the upstream of the industrial chain, robots mainly have servo systems, reducers, controllers, sensors and other core components, which directly determine the working performance of industrial robots, which is crucial.
The role of these upstream core components is not only reflected in the industrial robot industry, high-end CNC machine tools and the most cutting-edge humanoid robots are inseparable from their support, and the overall progress of the industrial chain is also conducive to the mass production of domestic humanoid robots.
So among these three complete machine companies, who is stronger?
Judging from the sales volume in the domestic market in 2023, Estun's sales volume will exceed 20,000 units, and its 8.5% market share will greatly exceed Inovance's 6.5% market share, but is Estun really better than the other two?
To see which company's technology is better, if we have the conditions, it is naturally more intuitive to compare the performance of the company's products, but we can also judge from the gross profit margin of the company's segmented business.
As the second largest industrial robot manufacturer in the domestic market, Estun's gross profit margin has been maintained at 30% for a long time, which can be said to be quite good, compared with the highest gross profit margin of Efort is just over 17%.
As a manufacturer of industrial robots from industrial control servo system, the company's technical strength in servo system can well support the rapid development of the robot business, and the gross profit margin of the automation business has been maintained above 44% for a long time.
We can clearly see that the gross profit margin of Inovance's automation business is much higher than that of the other two, and although the sales of industrial robots are not as large as Eston, the overall technical advantages are more obvious.
Judging from the performance of Inovance Technology over the years, the company's operating income has maintained a growth trend, and the net profit has only decreased slightly in 2019, but it has also entered a stage of rapid growth in 2020, and the overall performance is very stable.
The company's overall gross profit margin is not as high as that of the automation business, but it has also remained at a level of about 35% in recent years, and it is still a relatively high level from the perspective of the overall domestic manufacturing industry.
At present, although the company's new energy vehicle business such as electronic control and motor has started recently, it has developed very fast.
In 2023, the number of new designated customers will reach 30, becoming an important supplier of car companies such as Ideal, Xiaopeng, GAC, and Chery, as well as a core supplier of Xiaomi Automobile, and participating in the joint research and development of V6s super motors.
In 2023, the revenue of the new energy vehicle business will reach 9.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80%, and finally achieve profitability. In the first quarter of 2024, the sales revenue of the new energy vehicle business will be about 2.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 150%, and continue to grow rapidly.
We can see that as the company's new energy vehicle business has been on the right track, it will become an important support for the company's revenue growth in the future.
So, what is the market prospect of industrial robots?
The global industrial field is undergoing unprecedented changes, with factors such as population aging and technological progress directly and indirectly promoting the deepening of industrial automation, and the application fields of industrial robots are also increasing.
First, the increasing degree of industrial automation is a major trend in global industrial development.
Globally, all major industrialized countries are facing the problem of declining working population to varying degrees.
Our close neighbor Japan, whose industrial development time is decades earlier than our country, is now due to the aging problem caused by the continuous decline in newborns, and it is likely that there will be a labor shortage of more than 11 million by 2040, and the domestic industrial development will face a very big dilemma.
Germany is facing a similar situation, where a shortage of skilled workers has hampered factory operations and young people are increasingly reluctant to do such seemingly demanding manual work.
Even in the hollowing out of industry, there is a labor shortage, with more than 2.1 million manufacturing jobs expected to run short by 2030, adding to the already shrinking domestic industry.
As a result, the number of industrial robots in the world increased significantly by 34.87% in 2021, reaching a record high of 526,000 units. In 2022, the global installed capacity of industrial robots will continue to rise to 553,000 units, and the number of industrial robots is expected to continue to grow in the future.
Second, the overall penetration rate of the domestic robot market is low, and there is still room for significant growth.
It is precisely because of the continuous high use of industrial robots in the world that the global market size will reach $21.6 billion in 2022.
As a global manufacturing factory, China is naturally the main market for the application of industrial robots, especially compared with the overall scale of domestic manufacturing, there is still room for significant growth in the future.
In 2022, the size of China's industrial robot market will be about 8.7 billion US dollars, and the industry is expected to reach 11.5 billion US dollars in 2024, with a compound growth rate of 15% in recent years.
Third, the industrial robot industry chain is mature and the technology accumulation is sufficient, which is conducive to the later entry into the humanoid robot industry.
Humanoid robots are the hottest frontier industry in the field of robots, but the industry is still in the initial test stage, and the whole machine manufacturers are also forward-looking research and development-oriented, and only after the technology is mature will they increase investment.
Due to the similarity of upstream core component technologies, industrial robot manufacturers will also enter the rapid development wave of the industry in the mass production process of humanoid robots in the future.
For example, Inovance Technology has begun to enter the field of humanoid robots in 2023, and it is expected to increase investment this year to further verify the application of humanoid robots in practical scenarios.
On the whole, the domestic industrial robot industry started late, and there is still room for continued progress compared with international giants. However, the technological progress of domestic manufacturers is obvious, and it is expected to gain room for continued growth in the wave of industrial automation.
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Source: Flying Whale Investment Research