A-shares fell below 3,100 points, and the issuance of trillions of treasury bonds drained liquidity?

China Times

2024-05-25 19:18 Published on the official account of Beijing China Times

On May 24, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,100 points, and A-shares rushed to the hot search list on Weibo.

As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.88% to close at 3,088.87 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.23% to close at 9,424.58 points, and the ChiNext fell 1.81% to close at 1,818.56 points, with a turnover of 763.9 billion yuan in Shanghai and Shenzhen throughout the day, and the trading volume continued to shrink.

Since May 20, A-shares have fluctuated and fallen and finally fell below 3,100 points, and there are voices in the market that the issuance of treasury bonds has drained some of the liquidity, resulting in a shortage of A-share funds.

In this regard, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, told the China Times: "The issuance of ultra-long-term treasury bonds is done in multiple times under the condition of abundant liquidity, and the impact on liquidity is limited. The issuance of treasury bonds and the provision of financial support for the construction of infrastructure projects on the mainland are conducive to boosting the intensity of economic recovery and promoting the recovery of investor confidence, which is indirectly beneficial to the capital market. ”

The Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 3,100-point mark

On May 24, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges rose by 1,313 and fell by 3,851. Among them, there are 57 up limits and 28 down limits.

In terms of funds, the main funds had a substantial net outflow of 31.436 billion yuan, and the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets shrank by 83.7 billion yuan to 763.9 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day, it is worth noting that this is the second time since May that the turnover fell below the 800 billion yuan mark, and it is also the first time that the "517 real estate" real estate new deal has fallen below 800 billion yuan.

From the perspective of industry sectors, the ratio of gains and losses is 12 to 74. The top three sectors were the power industry, up 3.51%, power grid equipment, up 2.16%, and agriculture, animal husbandry and fishery up 1.21%. The top three sectors with the biggest declines were real estate services down 4.22%, aerospace down 3.6% and engineering consulting services down 3.1%.

In terms of the concept sector, the top three gainers were virtual power plants, up 2.67%, green power, and copper high-speed connections, up 2.2%; The top three declines were the same right to rent and sell by 4.99%, glass substrates by 3.95%, and AI chips by 3.68%.

The top three industry capital inflows were 3.287 billion yuan for the power industry, 872 million yuan for power grid equipment, and 690 million yuan for agriculture, animal husbandry and fishery. The top three outflows were 2.501 billion yuan for semiconductors, 2.138 billion yuan for real estate development, and 1.999 billion yuan for consumer electronics.

The top three inflows in the concept sector were green power (3.475 billion yuan), wind energy (1.218 billion yuan), and pumped storage (927 million yuan), while the top three outflows were artificial intelligence (8.063 billion yuan), Huawei concept (7.159 billion yuan), and military industry (6.224 billion yuan).

It is worth noting that the three major indexes of Hong Kong stocks have seen a continuous downward trend this week, among them, the Hang Seng Index fell 4.83% in a single week, the state-owned enterprises index fell 4.75%, and the technology index fell 7.61%.

The first 10 baggers were born during the year

In terms of hot stocks, Zhengdan shares rose 13.46% again on May 24 to close at 31.77 yuan, compared with the low point of 2.83 yuan in February, and a cumulative increase of 1023% in the past three months, during which the stock price rose by 20% for five times, and the stock price repeatedly hit record highs. If calculated by the lowest point of the stock price, Zhengdan shares have become the first stock in the two cities to rise more than 10 times this year.

The "China Times" reporter noticed that the sharp rise in Zhengdan's share price came from the continuous rise in the price of its main product, trimellitic anhydride (TMA).

Due to the large supply and demand gap caused by the shutdown of 70,000 tons of TMA production capacity of INEOS in the United States, the global supply of TMA plummeted, and the price of TMA rose to 50,000 yuan/ton, while the price was only 30,000 yuan/ton in early May. Relevant data show that as of May 21, the mainstream price of the market was 48,000-50,000 yuan/ton, and the individual high-end price was 51,000-52,000 yuan/ton.

For the current ex-factory price of Zhengdan shares TMA, the staff of Zhengdan shares securities department told this reporter: "Our pricing strategy is to go with the market, one customer and one price, and the current orders in hand are relatively sufficient. ”

From the perspective of global supply and demand pattern, TMA's global total production capacity is about 250,000 tons, and there are mainly 5 production enterprises, including 70,000 tons of INEOS of the United States, 30,000 tons of Bolin of Italy, 85,000 tons of Zhengdan shares, 40,000 tons of Baichuan shares, and 30,000 tons of TEDA new materials.

INEOS TMA plant capacity accounts for 27% of the world's total capacity, and the withdrawal of INEOS' 70,000-tonne capacity will cause a significant gap in global supply.

Zhengdan Co., Ltd. achieved revenue of 518 million yuan in the first quarter of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%; The net profit was about 58.99 million yuan, an increase of 412.94% year-on-year. In response to the reasons for the increase in performance, Zhengdan said that the company's main product sales and selling prices increased in the first quarter of this year.

For the stock price rose more than 10 times, Zhengdan staff told the "China Times" reporter: "The sharp rise in stock prices is a response to the price increase of the company's products in the secondary market, reflecting the expectations of investors for the company's performance. ”

The staff further told this reporter: "For the future expansion plan, the company's board of directors and senior management team will carefully consider. ”

Treasury bond issuance siphons out liquidity?

On May 13, the Ministry of Finance announced the issuance arrangement of 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds this year, and on May 17, the 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds were officially issued. On May 24, the 20-year ultra-long-term special treasury bond was officially issued for the first time.

According to the issuance arrangement, among the 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, the 20-year treasury bond is planned to be issued seven times, and will be issued once a month from May to November. 30-year term, issued once in May and once in November, and twice a month in the rest of the month, for a total of 12 times; The 50-year term is issued three times every two months. A total of 22 issues were issued, with an average single-phase issuance size of 45.5 billion yuan.

Since May 20, A-shares have fallen and finally fallen below 3,100 points, and there are voices in the market that the issuance of treasury bonds will drain some of the liquidity, resulting in a shortage of A-share funds.

"This year, the issuance period of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is 7 months, with a total of 22 issues and an average single issuance scale of 45.5 billion yuan. Compared with previous years, the pace of issuance this year is relatively slower, and the average single-issue supply impact is smaller. "CICC's fixed income research team believes that the issuance arrangement of this round of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds has minimized the liquidity shock and market impact.

"From the perspective of the impact on the capital side, the short-term impact on liquidity of the decentralized issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be significantly lower than expected, and the probability of the central bank implementing RRR cuts will also be reduced, or more through the medium-term lending facility (MLF) increase and open market operation (OMO) net injection to smooth the fluctuation of the capital side." Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said in an interview with the media that from the perspective of the estimated net financing amount of government bonds, the liquidity pressure from May to October is acceptable, and the liquidity pressure from November to December is relatively large due to the low maturity of government bonds, and the central bank may implement a RRR cut.

Editor-in-charge: Shuai Kecong Editor-in-chief: Xia Shencha

View original image 49K

•