Recently, the yen exchange rate has continued to fall and has renewed a new 34-year low. The renminbi also hit a 31-year high against the yen — four years ago, 1 yuan could be exchanged for 14.6 yen, and on April 29 it peaked at about 22 yen.
On 29 April, the RMB hit a new high against the Japanese yen
For Chinese tourists visiting Japan on May Day, the depreciation of the yen means that "Japan tours" are more cost-effective. According to information from a number of online travel platforms, Japan is the first destination for Chinese tourists to travel abroad during this year's May Day holiday, followed by Thailand and South Korea.
High-speed traffic jams double the accommodation fee
It does not affect tourists to go to Japan to "buy, buy, buy"
"The May Day Golden Week departed from Shanghai to Japan, the plane at 8 o'clock in the morning, and the team was crowded at 5 o'clock in the morning. Some netizens posted photos and laughed at themselves: "If you come, you will squeeze it." ”
Netizens posted photos of the airport at 5 a.m. on social platforms
"It's too suffocating to be too crowded, and you have to go out and walk more if you have nothing to do, otherwise you don't know how comfortable it is to stay at home." Xiao Jia, who had landed in Japan as early as May Day, joked that the May Day holiday was superimposed on Japan's Golden Week, and almost all popular attractions were crowded with Japanese and overseas tourists, "High-speed traffic jams, accommodation fees doubled, and meal queues, this trip is simply a 'full' experience." ”
The current situation of Japan's popular check-in spots posted by tourists
However, for Xiao Jia, who loves shopping, the current exchange rate is really "too fragrant", so Xiao Jia focused on "buying, buying, buying" on this trip to Japan. "Girls buy a lot of bags, clothes and jewelry, and LV, Van Cleef & Arpels, and mikimoto are all about to become Japanese 'souvenirs', and the sisters who traveled with me this time basically put these three sets on their shopping lists. ”
In addition to tourists, there are also Japanese daigou who are busy.
"It's been too busy for the past two months, taking orders in the middle of the night, queuing up at luxury stores as soon as they open during the day, and sometimes running through multiple stores to grab a popular bag, and not even having time to eat. Zheng Hong, who specializes in purchasing in Japan, told the Chao News reporter that a LV bag with a domestic price of about 20,000 yuan is equivalent to a 20% discount when the exchange rate and various preferential purchases are calculated in Japan. ”
FOR EXAMPLE, THE OFFICIAL PRICE OF THE LV POPULAR HANDBAG CARRYALL SMALL IS 20,600 YUAN IN CHINA AND 379,500 YEN IN JAPAN, OR ABOUT 17,650 YUAN.
In fact, the boom in luxury consumption in Japan can also be glimpsed from the performance of major brands. According to media reports, LVMH said in its latest earnings call that the growth of the Japanese market was not only affected by the increase in prices in the context of currency depreciation, but also because of the contribution of Chinese tourists to Japan.
In addition to professional purchasing, many tourism parties that travel on May Day are also eyeing the exchange rate "spread" and want to take the opportunity to earn back the air ticket money.
"The fee is 10% for regular products and 8% for products over 100,000 yen. Some netizens shared that taking the purchase of a camera priced at 250,000 yen as an example, according to the exchange rate of 20:1 and charging 8% of the purchasing fee, they can earn nearly 2,000 yuan. "To a certain extent, it can be regarded as subsidizing their own air tickets, although the price is not necessarily cheaper than that of professional purchasing, but they do not receive many orders, and they have enough time to communicate and confirm with customers in real time to ensure that human flesh is purchased. ”
The netizen said that in addition to more expensive cameras and bags, brand clothing such as Lululemon and Arc'teryx, as well as cosmetics and skin care products are also popular purchasing products.
Tourists post the Japanese purchasing fee standard online
According to the latest data from the Japan National Tourism Organization, about 3.08 million foreign tourists entered Japan in March, exceeding 3 million for the first time in a single month, an increase of 69.5% from the same period last year and an increase of 11.6% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, more than 450,000 Chinese mainland tourists entered Japan, ranking third in the total number of visitors, followed by South Korea and Taiwan.
Although Chinese mainland ranks third in terms of the number of tourists, it has the strongest spending power. Data shows that in the first quarter of this year, the per capita consumption of Chinese tourists in Japan was 293,100 yen (about 13,700 yuan), ranking first among foreign tourists.
Banks' yen exchange business increased
Experts caution: Caution should be exercised
"On the eve of the May Day holiday, there was an increase in the exchange of yen. A staff member of a state-owned bank in Hangzhou told reporters that most customers still use personal travel to purchase foreign exchange.
"In mid-April, my friend bought 65,000 yen at the exchange rate of 4.7, and she asked me to buy it but I didn't buy it. As the yen exchange rate continues to fall, Ms. Zang from Hangzhou is also planning to take a trip to Japan with her friends. On April 29, the yen exchange rate fell again, and Ms. Zang decided to wait and see. "Who knows if it will fall again, anyway, the visa hasn't been issued yet. ”
The real-time foreign exchange purchase price of ICBC on April 29
Earlier, Chao News reported that Ms. Cheng, a citizen of Hangzhou, bought the yen foreign exchange 3 times a month, and bought it many times when the exchange rate was 4.76, 4.72, and 4.69, and in the face of the continuous decline in the yen exchange rate, Ms. Cheng said: "Fortunately, I bought yen for travel, and the amount of each purchase was not large, and the loss was not much." ”
But for "investors", the mentality is not so good.
Some netizens bought 300,000 yen at the exchange rate of 4.81 in February, and they were originally entangled in whether to keep it for tourism or wait for it to rise back, but seeing that it was getting lower and lower, they cut it ruthlessly at the exchange rate of 4.56 and lost 5% of the principal. Ms. Sun, another Hangzhou citizen, has been "buying the bottom" since March, and has now bought 4 million yen one after another, with a floating loss of more than 4%.
Although the threshold for buying and selling foreign exchange through banks is low, and mobile banking apps can be operated, it often makes people ignore the risks behind it.
An industry insider engaged in the financial industry believes that the expected return on buying and selling yen foreign exchange is not as high as imagined, and she calculated: "When the exchange rate of the yen against the yuan is 4.75, you can only earn 50 yuan, with a yield of 1.05%, and when it rises to 4.9, you can earn 150 yuan, with a yield of 3.16%, which does not take into account the difference between the buying and selling prices of the bank's spot exchange." In her view, trading foreign exchange requires a certain degree of anti-risk ability and strong analytical ability.
What will be the trend of the yen exchange rate in the future? If you plan to travel to Japan in the future, can you exchange yen for backup at the low point now?
According to a previous report by CCTV Finance, the most direct reason for the current decline in the yen exchange rate is the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the yen. On the one hand, the weakening of Fed rate cut expectations triggered a stronger dollar, and on the other hand, the Japanese government continued to maintain loose liquidity, and market expectations for the Bank of Japan's monetary policy pivot were disappointed, triggering another sell-off in the yen.
Hu Jie, a professor at Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, believes that the yen interest rate will not be further raised in the short term, and the Fed's interest rate cut will be delayed, and these two factors will put pressure on the yen exchange rate in the short term. However, both factors are nearing their end. The current exchange rate fluctuations are more of an amplification of sentiment on fundamentals, and will continue for a while.
In the opinion of experts, if an individual needs to travel to Japan and study abroad, it is no problem to stock up on some now. If it is for the sake of household investment, it is not recommended to buy Japanese yen as your household asset allocation.
In addition, some members of the public are not aware of the difference between banknote and foreign exchange purchases. Experts suggest that it is more cost-effective to buy foreign exchange, because foreign exchange can be exchanged for banknotes at any time and withdrawn for use, but there is a handling fee for the exchange of banknotes for foreign exchange; moreover, foreign exchange can be freely remitted abroad, but banknotes cannot be used.
Finally, the expert reminded the public that it is best to shop around before buying foreign exchange, "When handling foreign exchange settlement and sales business, the exchange rate of each bank is not exactly the same. ”
Reporter He Huiting
Source: Chao News