【Financial Analysis】The county market has accelerated the diversion of the May Day holiday tourism "war situation" has changed

Xinhua Finance and Economics, Beijing, April 30 (Reporter Li Tangning, Ding Yawen) The May Day holiday is coming, and various places have ushered in the peak of concentrated travel of tourists. The data shows that the popularity of domestic travel during this year's May Day holiday has greatly exceeded that of the same period in 2019, and outbound travel has also ushered in a boom. At the same time, the county-level tourism market has a clear sense of existence and brought new increments, a number of niche tourism and vacation "potential stocks" have been tapped, and the growth rate of travel booking orders in fourth-tier and below cities is significantly higher than that of first- and second-tier cities and "outperforms the market". According to the analysis of industry insiders, with the full recovery of the supply side and the "joining the war" of the sinking market, the "players" in the industrial chain are entering a new stage of competition with more "volume".

The data has increased significantly, and the enthusiasm for travel during the May Day holiday has far exceeded that of previous years

Following the popularity of the Qingming Festival holiday, the data indicators of the tourism industry during the May Day holiday are still climbing. According to Fliggy's 2024 May Day Holiday Travel Vane, the booking level of domestic travel services during this year's May Day holiday continued to significantly exceed that of the same period in 2019, with both per capita bookings and per capita booking value increasing. Among them, the number of bookings for group tours has doubled, and car rentals have increased by more than 5 times.

According to Meituan data, as of April 24, the number of cultural tourism bookings (including scenic spots, accommodation, transportation, etc.) during the May Day holiday increased by more than 190% week-on-week. Xi'an and Chengdu, as popular starting points for the Northwest and West Sichuan ring tours, rank among the top 10 in the country. "During the May Day period, our products are mainly long-term travel routes in Sichuan. A person in charge of a travel agency in Sichuan said that this year's Jiuzhaigou and western Sichuan routes are very popular, "accommodation along the line is basically difficult to find." ”

In addition, traditional long-haul destinations such as Yunnan, Guizhou and Xinjiang continue to be hot. Taking Kunming, Yunnan Province as an example, the "jacaranda" on the middle road of Jiaochang ushered in the full flowering period, attracting many citizens and tourists to check in the "sea of purple flowers". Chuncheng Road, Jacaranda Theme Park, Baohai Park, etc. are all popular places recommended by netizens.

In terms of outbound travel, bookings for related services also recorded a strong growth of nearly 100%, building on the rapid rebound last year. Fliggy's data shows that the number of bookings for international hotels, air tickets, and car rentals has far exceeded the entire May Day holiday last year. In addition to traditional popular destinations such as Japan and Thailand, destinations such as Austria, Turkey, Spain, and Brazil have ushered in rapid growth in product bookings, becoming "dark horse players".

According to Tuniu's 2024 May Day Holiday Tourism Consumption Forecast Report, tourists from Shanghai, Beijing, Nanjing, Tianjin, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Shenyang, Xiamen and other places have a stronger willingness to travel, with 2-day and 5-day itineraries being the most popular.

Rental cars and taxis are also seeing a surge in demand. Didi Chuxing predicts that the peak demand for taxis before the holiday will start at 16 o'clock on April 30 and last until about 20 o'clock, and it is expected that the demand for taxis during the holiday will increase by about 35% compared with the pre-holiday period, of which the demand for long-distance travel will increase prominently, and the demand for taxis above 100 kilometers is expected to increase by 55%. At the same time, consumers are more recognizant of self-driving tours, and orders for holiday car rental in popular cities have increased by nearly 4 times, with Beijing, Chengdu, Urumqi, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other cities becoming popular destinations.

Industry insiders generally believe that this May Day holiday, the number of tourists and travel expenses will exceed the pre-epidemic data is a foregone conclusion. According to the data of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the past Qingming Festival holiday, there were 119 million domestic tourism trips across the country, an increase of 11.5% over the same period in 2019 on a comparable basis, and domestic tourists spent 53.95 billion yuan on travel, an increase of 12.7% over the same period in 2019.

The supply side "rolls up" and the county market "joins the battle"

It is worth mentioning that although the demand is increasing, the level of tourism supply is also increasing. With the development of tourism resources and the improvement of infrastructure in fourth-tier cities and below, and the improvement of tourism reception capacity, more and more "characteristic small towns" and tourist destinations in sinking markets have been welcomed, and to a certain extent, the pressure of traditional popular tourist destinations has been diverted and the price of accommodation and transportation has been reduced. A number of niche cities have also been excavated with their unique characteristics.

Meituan data shows that during the May Day holiday, accommodation bookings in cities featuring food such as Tianshui, Zhengding, Zibo, Taizhou, Liuzhou, Chaozhou, and Yanji increased significantly. Taking Zhengding as an example, in the past two weeks, the search popularity of "Zhengding Night Market" has increased by 13 times compared with the previous two weeks, and the consumer group aged 20-35 accounts for more than 6 percent, and "Zhengding Night Market Food" and "Zhengding Night Market Accommodation" have become high-frequency search keywords.

According to Ctrip data, travel bookings in fourth-tier cities and below during the May Day holiday increased by 140% year-on-year, outperforming the national market and significantly higher than those in first- and second-tier cities. Among them, hotel booking orders in the county market increased by 68% year-on-year, and scenic spot ticket orders increased by 151% year-on-year.

The popularity of third- and fourth-tier cities is also reflected in travel. Didi Chuxing predicts that during the May Day period, the demand for taxis in third- to fifth-tier cities will rise most significantly, with an expected increase of about 50%, and Weihai, Zibo, Qinhuangdao, Luoyang, Lishui and other cities will once again usher in a large number of passengers.

Since April this year, a large number of Haidilao's stores in the sinking market have also felt a steady increase in customer flow. Wu Guoqing, store manager of Haidilao Zhengji Plaza store in Juxian County, Shandong Province, said: "The average daily customer flow of our store during the Qingming holiday has increased by more than 60% year-on-year, and it is speculated from the current booking situation that the number of customers received by the store during the May Day holiday this year may increase by more than 50% year-on-year."

It is also due to the sudden emergence of characteristic niche cities, although the number of hotel bookings for the May Day holiday has increased this year, the overall price has not increased year-on-year. According to Qunar data, as of April 10, the average price of hotels in popular cities during the May Day holiday in 2024 has decreased by 20%. With the full recovery of the entire homestay supply chain, the "hard to find a room" scene that appeared last year has not been widespread this year. Tujia's booking data shows that as of April 24, the supply of high-quality homestays continued to increase, and the average price of homestays in some popular cities fell by about 10% year-on-year, such as Beijing by 17% and Fuzhou by 22%. The booking rates of homestays in Jingdezhen in Jiangxi, Datong in Shanxi, Pingtan in Fujian and Zibo in Shandong were 88%, 86, 83% and 78% respectively, and there was no complete book.

"The tourism industry has fully recovered, but there are more people staring at the tourist meal. "According to the analysis of industry insiders, because the traditional popular tourist cities are diverted by the third and fourth tier cities, and the supply of hotel rooms has risen, hotel prices have declined. Liu Yang, chief commercial officer of Tujia B&B, analyzed that in the past year or so, the B&B industry has achieved recovery to growth, and the supply side has now fully recovered.

In this regard, experts also said that for the "potential stocks" town, the topic of tourism is hot, but the tourism construction is long-term, so it is necessary to dig deep into local characteristics, but also to ensure high-quality services. Dai Bin, president of the China Tourism Academy, said that tourism needs "Internet celebrities", but "Internet celebrities" are the result of many objective factors and accidental factors. An excellent tourist city depends on the temperature of the service to thousands of tourists. Let tourists become repeat customers, so that such a city can "grow red".

Editor: Wang Chunxia

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