Corn has fallen a little too much! Really good at playing! Wheat has begun to make reservations for purchase!

Corn is still falling, and what is even more outrageous is that the individual quotations in North China and Shandong have fallen below 1.1 yuan/jin, and the lowest is close to 1 yuan/jin.

There is no other reason for the decline, it is just that the volume is constantly rising.

For example, the amount of Shandong is not going down, originally two days ago to the number of trucks dropped from more than 1,000 to less than 1,000, down to more than 600 when it rose again, and jumped to more than 900, so the decline is not a new thing.

This also shows a problem, that is, the mentality of the corn market is really bad, there are not a few people who panic to produce grain, and the enthusiasm for finding a car to transport grain is very high.

And the auction of the grain reserves in China also confirms this.

Almost all the corn sold at auction was unauctioned, but the transaction rate of bidding purchases was frequently high, indicating that the market's buying and selling mentality has been unbalanced, and they are actively selling grain by selling more and buying less.

Yesterday we just mentioned that if corn falls like this again, it cannot be ruled out that the official will have to take further action, and in fact, the crazy decline of corn has attracted the attention of the official, and has already taken action, just waiting for the effect to ferment.

This also means that the "bottom" of corn is already obvious.

The first is the bottom of the policy.

As we all know, this year's policy shines in the Northeast, and the successive increases in reserves have held up the Northeast corn, but it is impossible to manage only the Northeast, regardless of North China, but the problems faced by North China are more complicated, so the effect should be slower.

Just like at the beginning of the year, when the Northeast just started to increase reserves, the corn market did not react immediately, and even fell, until the increase in reserves continued to ferment, and the defeat of Northeast corn was reversed.

Therefore, the same is true for North China and Shandong.

The second is the bottom of the market.

Although corn is still in the downward channel, we have analyzed that from the perspective of the market, the purchase and sale are nearing the end, and the market surplus grain has bottomed out, which is good for corn.

Because as the food source shifts to the trading entity, the trading entity has greater resilience to pressure, so the market turbulence will also decrease.

Therefore, the current turmoil is more due to mood and mentality fluctuations, but from the perspective of various market entities, it is no longer supported that corn continues to fall sharply.

Therefore, we believe that although corn is still falling, it is already at a juncture of change, and it may be about to usher in a change.

First, the number of holidays has been reduced.

Approaching the May Day holiday, although the impact of the holiday on corn is far less than that of the pig market, but the corn that has fallen for so long has shown fatigue, and it is expected that with the arrival of the holiday, there will be a temporary respite.

The relevant logistics information also shows that the phenomenon of finding cars and delivering goods at the grassroots level has begun to ease in recent days.

But the post-holiday is still unknown, so it is only a phased market.

The second is weather changes.

Approaching May Day, the weather is going to be powerful again, especially the recent rainy weather in many places in Hebei, and even snowfall in some areas, which is rare, which will also have a certain impact on the amount of corn.

In Shandong, the weather has not changed much recently, but in the last few days of the May Day holiday, it has also begun to usher in rain.

We'll see.

In terms of trend, sentiment will not always be at a high level, and the day when Shandong will return to weather resistance is not far off.

But even with these variables, this does not mean that the corn market will be better in May, as the pressure on the corn market will remain high in May.

First, imports are still not low.

Although the relevant restrictions on corn in the bonded area have been carried out before, and the pressure on imported corn has been reduced, the price of imported corn is very low, and the comprehensive cost is only more than 2,000 yuan/ton, which is still a threat to the domestic market.

Secondly, in addition to imported corn, imported sorghum is expected to arrive in Hong Kong in the second quarter, which will also further put pressure on the domestic corn market.

Second, demand is still difficult to revive.

The recent heavy rains in the south have had a certain impact on the pig market, but at the same time increased the risk, at least in the short term, pig prices have not yet been fully reversed, and it is expected that demand will remain difficult for a period of time.

Third, the focus of the market has shifted.

After entering May, the wheat harvest is about to begin, and the market's focus has also shifted to wheat, and the focus on corn has weakened.

Therefore, the decline of corn in May may ease, but it is still basically in a state of grinding, and it is still difficult to rise.

Wheat has begun to make reservations for purchases

Yesterday we just mentioned that wheat has finally shown signs of stabilizing recently, but the market is still very worried, because it has just stabilized not long ago, and then it has started to fall twice, and the decline is fierce.

So this time the market has become very cautious.

At present, the controversy over wheat mainly focuses on two aspects:

One is the abundant harvest of new wheat.

The point of contention is the weather.

But there's really nothing to fight about, because the weather is God's business, and no one can decide.

At present, a bumper crop of new wheat is expected, but this is in the absence of extreme weather. However, the weather in Hebei has changed quite a lot in the past two days, and some areas of Hebei have ushered in a big cooling, and it is rain and snow, which is very rare, which also increases the interference of the weather again, and casts a layer of fog on the bumper yield of wheat.

It is no wonder that the market is so volatile, because the wheat market is really very fragile, or the supply and demand of wheat are not so terrible, at least not to let wheat fall like this.

The main reason for the current sharp decline in wheat is the centralized auction of policy grain, especially the later auction, which is almost crazy, which makes the supply surge, and of course the demand cannot be stopped.

However, once the auction stops in the later stage, if the new wheat relay is wrong, then there will be a gap in the market, and the price of wheat will rise.

This is the best example of this point when Henan suffered a bad rain last year.

On the other hand, under the strong bearish sentiment of wheat, flour enterprises have maintained a low inventory state, which is of course worry-free in the context of bumper yields.

However, once the situation changes, the willingness of flour enterprises to replenish the stock will increase immediately, which will also drive up wheat prices.

The second point of contention is over Chen Mai.

Affected by the late maturity period, the new wheat can not be put into use immediately after harvest, and a large amount of old wheat needs to be blended, and the old wheat at this time becomes fragrant, which is also an important opportunity for the market to be bullish on the old wheat.

But recently, Chen Mai has played a new trick, that is, some companies have begun to make appointments to purchase Chen Mai, and the price of the appointment is about 50 yuan/ton higher than the market at that time.

This suddenly made the market incomprehensible, which play is this?

In fact, this is also a move to balance the risk in the context of the uncertain production situation of new wheat and the unpredictable market.

This says two things:

First, Chen Mai is in demand.

This point is also expected by the company, no matter how high or low the price of wheat is listed, it is not important, the important thing is that Chen Mai is needed to support the field at this time.

The second is that Chen Mai can't make up his mind.

The reason for the purchase at a limited price is that the grain source can be locked in advance, and the risk becomes controllable after the price limit. So it's a good way for a business to balance the pros and cons.

Let's go back to the current wheat market.

Recently, wheat has begun to stabilize, and even some have begun to rise, mainly for several reasons:

First, the policy wheat auction has shrunk.

However, there are still doubts about this point, on the one hand, the early auction is too ruthless, and the lower the auction, the higher the unsuccessful auction, and it is not a matter to keep shooting, and the market also needs to slow down.

On the other hand, it is also approaching the May Day holiday, and there are only 3 days of delivery this week, so the reduction is inevitable.

However, it is not known whether it will continue to increase after May Day.

Second, the handover of the new and old has gradually begun.

Time can't be counted, after the May Day holiday, the beginning of May will be almost over, which means that after the holiday, Hubei early-maturing wheat will appear in a week at most.

It's a very tight time.

Fresh wheat is also facing a convergence problem, and at present, the new and old handover coincides around 1.3 yuan/catty, and the space for wheat to fall again has become limited. Even if it goes down, it is more likely to be around 1.3 yuan.

Third, weather disturbances have increased significantly.

Although the new wheat harvest is expected to be larger, but one thing drops one thing, Hebei has changed the weather, so that the wheat "crisis" is immediately put on the agenda, after all, no one can predict the weather.

Therefore, whether in terms of emotion or market conditions, wheat has begun to stop, and it is expected that the turbulence will become smaller after the holiday, until the new wheat is officially harvested, and it will be a new plot.

Domestic wheat has fallen, but international wheat has suddenly "risen sharply"! What happened?

Domestic wheat is falling worryingly, especially after the wheat price fell below 1.3 yuan/catty, the market seems to have lost its backbone, and the new wheat harvest is getting closer and closer, and the market is becoming more and more nervous.

And just when the domestic wheat market was in shock, there was "big news" in the international market.

Just last week, international wheat generally ushered in a sustained rise, with Chicago wheat rising 9.79% during the week, the highest increase since the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

As we all know, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, international wheat prices have soared instantly, but with the market's digestion of the conflict and the gradual decline of sentiment, coupled with the Fed's crazy interest rate hikes, wheat prices have begun to pull back across the board.

By the end of the year, it had fallen to a low point.

It's good, why did it suddenly go up again?

This also makes people wonder if the direction of the market is about to change again?

Careful analysis shows that there are two main reasons for the rise in international wheat prices:

The first is extreme weather.

Extreme weather can be said to have never been offline, and it has been one of the important factors disrupting the global food market in the past two years.

Recently, the drought in the United States and Russia has intensified, and the wheat yield rate has been declining, and the wheat production forecast has also been revised downward.

As a result, the market is concerned that a decline in production in the two major wheat producing countries could affect wheat production in the northern hemisphere.

So under this worry, the bullish sentiment began to rise.

At the same time, we also note that Russia, as the world's largest wheat exporter, has been in the limelight in the past two years, but the weather in the southern region, which is the largest wheat producing area in Russia, continues to be dry, which makes the crop growth worse, so that Russia's new wheat output has also been revised downward, from the previous forecast of 94 million tons to 93 million tons, and this is the first time that the forecast for Russian wheat has been lowered this year.

As a result, Russian wheat prices have risen recently, from less than $200/mt to $210/mt.

Also affected is Europe, where major wheat producers, led by France, have also lowered their production forecasts, which has also led to an increase in European wheat prices.

There is also Argentina in South America, where El Niño is forecast to end by the middle of this year, but La Niña is likely to make a comeback.

As a result, Argentine farmers are significantly less willing to plant wheat, and some farmers intend to abandon wheat in favor of corn and soybeans, which has led to a downward revision of the Argentine wheat acreage, which is roughly the same as last year, but still below the average of the past five years.

The second reason is that India's wheat stocks have fallen to a new low.

Why just bring India out?

Although India is also a large wheat producer, Indian wheat exports account for a small proportion of the global wheat market, but the impact is large.

For example, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, global wheat prices soared, and India once shouted the slogan of expanding wheat exports to feed the world, so global wheat prices temporarily eased.

But before the breath could be smoothed, India's wheat export ban once again pushed wheat to the peak.

So what happened this time?

Due to the failure of India's wheat harvest for two consecutive years, the domestic wheat supply has dropped significantly, and the government has no choice but to continue to release wheat from the national reserve in order to stabilize the domestic wheat price.

As a result, India's wheat stocks have been declining, with the latest estimate falling to 7.5 million tonnes, not only below last year, but also well below the average of the last decade, and even the lowest in 16 years.

Not only that, but according to the U.S. Agricultural Counselor, India may not only not be able to export wheat, but may even need to import wheat to fill its domestic stocks.

As a result, under the influence of these factors, international wheat has risen.

Does that mean that the wind in the international wheat market is about to change?

Although at present, there are many influencing factors, but they are not yet climate.

Although the forecast for global wheat production has been revised downward, it is still 1.1 percent higher than the previous year, which is still the second highest level in history, which means that the wheat deficit is not significant.

At present, it is mainly about the weather hype.

On the other hand, the impact at home is even more limited.

If there is no extreme weather in the country, the probability of a bumper wheat harvest is higher, which means that the supply will continue to increase, which will make the already weak wheat even worse.

However, the mentality of the wheat market has also changed significantly recently, the volume of investment and auction has been reduced, and the new wheat is about to be listed, the advantages of old wheat have gradually emerged, and the market price reduction mentality has also converged.

As a result, the wheat market gradually stabilized.

What about wheat in May?

Again, it is the biggest variable that stops at the weather.