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In May, in the middle and late part of the country, in the domestic grain market, the trend of corn and wheat was "polarized", among them, corn showed a trend of rising, in Shandong, corn rose by 102 yuan/ton in the month, and the average price rose to 1.169 yuan/jin, while the wheat market "sat on the slide", the price of new wheat gradually merged, the price of old wheat fell sharply by 102 yuan/ton, the average price fell to 1.271 yuan/jin, and the wheat fell by 3.86%! So, what's happening in the market? The specific analysis is as follows:
First, the corn supply trend is tight, and the sentiment of enterprise construction is heating up!
Since the beginning of this month, the Northeast corn has been weak and stable, and the price of Shandong corn has continued to rise! Judging from the feedback from the institution, at present, the average price of corn in the country has risen to 1.5 yuan/jin, of which the average price of corn in Shandong has risen to 1.169 yuan/jin, compared with the end of April, a big increase of 102 yuan/ton, and the average price of corn in Northeast China has risen to 1.11 yuan/jin!
At present, the corn quotation in the producing area is showing a trend of rising hand in hand, and the quotation of the Northeast and North China markets is strengthening against the trend, and the logic of supporting the price increase of corn is as follows:
(1) The surplus grain at the grassroots level has bottomed out, the channel has tightened the rhythm of slaughter, and the supply level of spot corn has dropped significantly!
(2), corn contract quotation soared, corn 2407 quotation rose to 2465 yuan / ton, compared with the end of April, up 77 yuan / ton, the market bullish sentiment strengthened, grain traders reluctant to sell the price mentality stronger, in particular, the channel corn storage cost is higher, the subscription mentality weakened!
(3) The international corn market is rising, the cost of imported corn is rising, in particular, the customs restricts the import of corn to the bonded area, and the pattern of domestic imported corn may further decline, which is bound to exacerbate the prospect of the domestic corn supply gap!
(4) The consumption capacity has become stronger, the market's concerns about the gradual tightening of seasonal grain supply have risen, the enthusiasm for demand follow-up has been boosted, and the phenomenon of replenishing corn has increased!
Therefore, under the support of many positive parties, the spot corn quotation showed a trend of upward trend, from the grassroots feedback, Shandong, the level of deep processing arrival fell to about 241 cars, the market volume continued to be tight, the local deep processing price increase demand increased, Shandong mainstream deep processing quotation rose 0.5 ~ 2 cents / jin, among them, in Weifang lemon biochemical, the listing price rose to 1.27 yuan / jin, Shandong mainstream corn price rose to 1.14 ~ 1.27 yuan / jin!
Personally, I believe that based on the improvement of market sentiment and the willingness to replenish the warehouse in advance, it is expected that in the short term, the corn spot will continue to be strong, and the Northeast market with the gradual increase in orders from South China, the bullish mentality of local enterprises has become stronger, and the corn market may have a trend of rising with the disk!
Second, the price of wheat fell by 3.86%!
At the beginning of the month, by the grain storage and temporary storage of wheat stopped, the pace of wheat purchase and sales accelerated, the domestic spot wheat price briefly rose, and the national average wheat price rose to 1.322 yuan / catty!
However, due to the strong expectation of new wheat harvest, after a short period of replenishment of milling enterprises, the enthusiasm for further procurement of grain sources declined, while the local wheat rotation was relatively positive, and the channel also accelerated the rhythm of surplus grain clearance, and wheat prices fell rapidly!
In particular, with the early maturity of wheat in Hubei Province has been listed, the price of new wheat has shown a trend of "low opening and low walking", which further inhibits the performance of old wheat prices, and the new wheat is accelerated to merge with each other.
At present, the national wheat spot price is 1.271 yuan/jin, compared with 1.322 yuan/jin at the beginning of the month, the phased wheat price fell by 5 points 1, the decline reached 3.86%, and the wheat spot continued to be weak! Among them, in the Hebei market, the price of wheat is generally 1.26~1.275 yuan/jin; In Shandong, the price of wheat fell to 1.25~1.29 yuan/jin; In Henan, the price of wheat hovered at 1.238~1.31 yuan/jin, of which the price of Suiping Wudeli fell to 1.238 yuan/jin. In the domestic winter wheat producing areas, the price of old wheat continues to adjust downward, and the price center of gravity has moved down significantly!
Personally, I believe that in the short term, due to the low price of new wheat, the old wheat market will continue to be under pressure, in particular, the purchase and sale of flour is in the off-season, the downstream demand is poor, the operating rate of milling enterprises is low, the demand for grain is cautious, and the market will still be dominated by shocks!
However, in recent days, some areas of Henan have been violently collided by cold and warm air, and extreme windy weather has occurred in many places, resulting in a large-scale lodging of wheat in some areas, which may have an adverse impact on yield! Therefore, for the wheat market, focus on the impact of the weather in the producing area on the yield of new wheat, at present, the new wheat is relatively limited by the impact of lodging and scab, the production capacity is still in the bumper yield expectation, and the price may continue to be weak!
Corn rose by 102 yuan, wheat fell by 3.86%, and grain prices were "polarized", what happened? What do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion, the picture comes from the Internet!