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Oil price adjustment, the 10th oil price in the year ended with a sharp decline, the domestic 92/95 gasoline was generally reduced by 0.18~0.21 yuan / liter, the decline recorded the highest single time in the year, and the cost of residents' travel and logistics and transportation has been significantly reduced!
According to the domestic oil price adjustment mechanism, the 11th oil price pricing cycle in 2024 will be from May 16 ~ May 29, and the price adjustment time will be 24 o'clock on May 29. From the market feedback, referring to the international crude oil quotation, among them, WTI crude oil quotation at 78.63 US dollars / barrel, Brent crude oil quotation 82.75 US dollars / barrel, the end of the first working day of the current round of pricing cycle, crude oil change rate -1.36%, gasoline and diesel prices are estimated to fall 45 yuan / ton, oil prices are about to hit the standard line of downward adjustment, a new round of oil price adjustment, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to "3 consecutive declines"!
On the one hand, the United States released a new round of CPI data, which is in line with market expectations, and the expectations of institutions for two interest rate cuts in the second half of the year have increased, which has a certain positive support for the crude oil market; On the other hand, the new commercial inventory level of U.S. crude oil decreased by 2.508 million tons from the previous week to 457 million barrels, which is also good for the crude oil market!
However, the IEA report at the end of the month showed that the expected growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2024 is expected to fall by 140,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day, which is mainly due to the weak demand of major international economies, which inhibits the ability of crude oil consumption!
Therefore, under the long-short game, the international crude oil market is showing a narrow range of shocks, and this round of oil price adjustment is not yet directional! The author will also continue to pay attention to the changes in the market, hoping that the international oil price will plummet again in the next few days, so that the domestic gasoline and diesel prices can return to normal as soon as possible......
Attached: The price of gasoline No. 92/95 at the gas station on May 17
At the same time, in the domestic soybean meal and corn markets, corn prices are showing a strong contrarian trend, the market bullish mentality is strong, the demand for follow-up enthusiasm has improved, and spot corn will continue to rise! In the soybean meal market, the domestic soybean meal spot is showing a volatile situation, and the support at the bottom of the market still exists, but the domestic supply situation continues to be loose, and the market game is intensifying! The details are as follows:
Soybean meal market: According to the analysis of institutional data, at present, in terms of domestic coastal oil mills, Shandong, Jiangsu, Tianjin and Guangdong, the spot soybean meal price of mainstream oil mills is 3400~3480 yuan/ton, compared with yesterday, the mainstream oil mills fell by 10 yuan/ton, and the price change range is general!
It is understood that recently, Brazil released soybean supply and demand data for May, in which the 23/24 soybean output was raised to 147.69 million tons, an increase of 1.16 million tons, which obviously exceeded market expectations! However, due to the previous sharp market volatility caused by the floods in southern Brazil, the impact of the production cut has now been largely absorbed. In particular, the USDA May supply and demand report was released, and the premium due to the impact of the floods in Brazil was gradually loosened, and in the short term, CBOT soybeans hovered at 1200 cents / bushel, and the market lacked a new round of hype on the theme, and the focus has shifted to the North American market!
In the domestic market, the soybean meal supply pattern is gradually relaxed, soybeans and soybean meal are in the stage of double accumulation, the agency predicts that the import of soybeans in May will be about 9 million tons, and the soybeans will enter the port in June at 11.2 million tons, and the soybeans will enter the stage of concentrated arrival, and the operating rate of domestic oil mills will continue to improve! As of last week, the soybean inventory of domestic oil mills was 4.1857 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 559,200 tons, of which the soybean meal inventory increased by 172% compared with the same period last year, and the soybean meal supply pattern improved!
However, due to the high cost of domestic soybeans entering the port, the price of Brazilian soybeans is relatively firm, and the price mentality of oil mills is strong! Although, the domestic soybean meal supply pattern is gradually relaxed, and the demand side is generally undertaken, the pig production capacity continues to be reduced, the pig inventory level has dropped sharply, and the feed consumption level has declined, which has inhibited the ability of soybean meal consumption and has a certain pressure on the market! Under the long and short game, in the short term, the domestic spot soybean meal market will still maintain a narrow range of shocks, the price bottom support is strong, and the market will pay attention to the changes in the import of soybeans into the port and the discount price of Brazilian soybeans!
Corn market: Recently, the corn market ushered in the "price rise", Shandong, spot corn prices continue to rise, the Northeast market, corn market has also continued to rise, among them, Shandong, corn spot compared with the low value at the end of April, the cumulative increase at this stage has reached about 4.57%, the national average price of corn rose to 1.15 yuan, Shandong corn deep processing quotation rose to about 1.17 yuan / catty......
On the one hand, due to the end of the progress of corn grain sales, the surplus grain at the grassroots level has bottomed out, and the main body of grain holding is subject to the high price of corn in storage, and the price mentality is strong. Recently, the domestic corn market has strengthened sharply, driving the rise of corn contract quotations, the market is further bullish on the market outlook, the main body of grain is in high price, the phenomenon of reluctance to sell is more common, and the circulation of corn is further reduced!
On the other hand, due to the gradual clarity of corn prospects, the scale of domestic corn imports has gradually declined, the demand for corn procurement in the southern market has increased, and the corn shipments in Northeast ports have accelerated, while the North China market, local feed and deep processing enterprises, by the trend of tight seasonal supply of grain, the demand for centralized construction is strong, and the enthusiasm for corn purchase and sales has become stronger.
Therefore, under the support of many parties, the spot price of corn continues to rise, and I personally believe that in the short term, under the support of emotional guidance and demand commitment, the price center of gravity will continue to rebound, and the market will pay attention to the changes in the price difference between corn spot and wheat!
The beginning of the fall in oil prices! On May 17, the price of gasoline at the gas station No. 92/95, how about soybean meal and corn? What do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion, the picture comes from the Internet, and the content is for reference only!