In May, the corn market has shown a trend of "breaking" and rising, especially under the guidance of emotions, the two-way force of purchase and sales, and the price of corn has "jumped"!
The logic supporting the rise in corn prices is as follows:
(1) The grassroots grain sales have ended, the surplus grain has been further reduced, the price of corn in the storage of the main body of grain is high, the subscription mentality has weakened, and the domestic circulation link and the supply of corn have been declining for a long time.
(2) Corn in the external market has risen sharply, the domestic corn contract quotation has also risen, the cost of imported corn has increased, and the domestic import of corn has been transferred to the bonded area, the enthusiasm of traders for corn imports has weakened, the sales area market, the domestic trade corn purchase and sales heat has increased, the corn trading heat of the southern port has improved, and the demand for feed and deep processing enterprises has increased, which has also boosted the performance of the Northeast port and supported the mentality of the main body of grain holding the price;
(3), North China corn grain sales rhythm slowed down, corn import level or will drop sharply, grain traders reluctant to sell high prices, downstream enterprises grain sources to the factory is insufficient, the amount of enterprises is difficult to maintain daily operation, inventory gradually digested, factories by the corn supply prospects are worried about the tighter demand for price increases, which further supports the main body of grain price operation!
Therefore, by the domestic production area corn grain sales rhythm accelerated, surplus grain gradually decreased, the amount of grassroots gradually declined, the main body of grain reluctant to sell to rise mentality, and corn contract rose sharply and imported corn or will reduce the amount of expectations, which boosted the enthusiasm of the main body of demand to follow-up, feed and deep processing have the operation of building a warehouse on dips, the corn market has entered the "seller's market", and the price center of gravity has gradually rebounded!
According to the analysis of institutional data, at present, the average price of corn deep processing in Shandong has risen to 1.17 yuan/jin, compared with 1.118 yuan/jin at the end of April, and the price of corn has risen by as much as 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.65%!
However, with the change of market purchase and sales sentiment, the further rise of corn appears to be "crisis", the style of deep processing quotation has changed abruptly, and the market has shown a weak and stable situation!
On the one hand, after the price of corn continues to rise, the market's ability to undertake high prices has weakened, and the wait-and-see mentality has become stronger, especially at present, the inventory of mainstream feed and deep processing enterprises is safe, the factory has stopped work and overhauled the operation, the consumption level of raw grain has declined, and the enthusiasm for high-price replenishment of corn has weakened;
On the other hand, wheat substitution concerns are getting stronger! In North China and Huanghuai markets, the countdown to the listing of new wheat has begun, and there has been extremely windy weather in some areas, and wheat has appeared on a large scale of local lodging, and wheat yield and quality may decline. In Hubei, the new wheat is listed, the opening scale price is low and the local grassroots loading price has dropped to 1.15 yuan / catty, with the wheat harvest to the north, some enterprises are worried about the further decline in wheat prices, the possibility of wheat feed or will be improved, which is also the current situation of the enthusiasm of some enterprises in corn procurement!
According to data analysis, on May 17, domestic corn prices showed a weak and stable trend, the mainstream deep processing listing price stabilized, and only 7 companies listed for price increases!
Among them, in the Heijiliao area, Hailun Guotou rose 1 point and quoted at 1.135 yuan / catty; Meihekou Fukang alcohol rose by 3.53 points, and the execution price was 1.145 yuan / catty; COFCO Zhongfu in Jinzhou Port rose 0.5 points, quoted at 1.2 yuan, and the average price of corn in Heijiliao, Inner Mongolia and port areas was 1.11 yuan per catty!
In Shandong, the level of deep processing corn to the factory in the morning was 364 cars, the amount of enterprises increased slightly, and the listed prices of local enterprises generally stabilized, among them, Zou Ping Xilai rose 1 point, quoted at 1.16 yuan, Zaozhuang Hengren rose 1 point, quoted at 1.16 yuan, and Yishui Qingyuan rose 0.5 points, quoted at 1.17 yuan. The average price of corn in Shandong is 1.17 yuan, and the quotation of mainstream enterprises has risen to 1.14~1.26 yuan / catty!