Recently, the corn market in the Northeast region has experienced a series of positive changes. First of all, Jilin fuel ethanol has raised the purchase price of corn for several consecutive days. In addition, COFCO Elm has also raised its corn offer. Affected by this, the price of corn in the northeast producing areas began to follow the upward trend in Shandong and North China, and achieved a positive change. This time, it can be said that the corn market has finally ushered in a "turnaround", and most areas have begun to rise sharply. Corn price forecast for May 2024.
Corn prices have risen sharply!
Recently, there have been some surprises in the corn market in Shandong, although the supply of corn has increased in recent days, leading some deep processing companies to start thinking about lowering the purchase price. However, today, although the supply of corn continues to rise, deep processing enterprises do not show a clear trend of price reduction. On the contrary, many companies still choose to increase the purchase price, which is not expected by the market.
In the Northeast, it is quite powerful, and some acquisitions with strong market influence are raising prices. Today, there has been a significant price increase in the port market, especially the Chinese head enterprise led the increase of 30 yuan, pushing the purchase price of 14% moisture corn to about 2380 yuan/ton. In addition, deep processing enterprises have also joined the ranks of price increases, Jilin fuel ethanol company once again raised the purchase price by 20 yuan, 14% moisture corn purchase price reached 1.135 yuan / catty. COFCO Elm also significantly increased its purchase price, with the price of third-class 14% moisture corn rising by 50 yuan to 1.125 yuan per catty.
In terms of storage, there is also positive news. Jilin area adjusted reserve corn began to purchase again, Jilin Longjia direct warehouse for the second class 14% moisture corn purchase price of 2320 yuan/ton, compared with the previous batch of purchase price increased 60 yuan/ton.
The purchase price of natural dry corn at the grassroots level in Northeast China has also been generally raised by 20-30 yuan, especially in Bin County, where the recent cumulative increase has reached about 50 yuan. These price increases indicate that the market demand for corn is still strong, and the upward trend of supply side prices is gradually passing on to the grassroots market.
How much is a pound of dried corn now?
Dry corn in Wanquan District, Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province is 1.2 yuan/jin; Anping County, Hengshui City, Hebei Province, dry corn 1.1 yuan/jin; Qinshui County, Jincheng City, Shanxi Province, dry corn 1.12 yuan/jin; Gaoping City, Jincheng City, Shanxi Province, dry corn 1.08 yuan/jin; Dry corn in Lanxian County, Luliang City, Shanxi Province is 1.12 yuan/jin; dry corn in Saihan District, Hohhot City, Inner Mongolia 1.4 yuan/jin; Benxi Manchu Autonomous County, Benxi City, Liaoning Province, dry corn 1.18 yuan/jin; dry corn in Taihe District, Jinzhou City, Liaoning Province 1.13 yuan/jin; dry corn in Da'an City, Baicheng City, Jilin Province, 1.19 yuan/jin; dry corn in Nangang District, Harbin City, Heilongjiang Province, 1.15 yuan/jin; Dry corn in Shuangcheng District, Harbin City, Heilongjiang Province, 1.5 yuan/jin; Tonghe County, Harbin City, Heilongjiang Province, dry corn 1.1 yuan/jin; Tieli City, Yichun City, Heilongjiang Province, dry corn 1.13 yuan/jin; dry corn in Dongfeng District, Jiamusi City, Heilongjiang Province, 1.08 yuan/jin; dry corn in the suburbs of Jiamusi City, Heilongjiang Province, 1.11 yuan/jin; dry corn in Dong'an District, Mudanjiang City, Heilongjiang Province, 1.1 yuan/jin; Muling City, Mudanjiang City, Heilongjiang Province, dry corn 1.08 yuan/jin; Heilongjiang Heihe City, Wudalianchi City, dry corn 1.09 yuan/jin; Zhaodong City, Suihua City, Heilongjiang Province, dry corn 1 yuan/jin; Huangdao District, Qingdao City, Shandong Province, dry corn 1.12 yuan/jin; dry corn in Zhongmu County, Zhengzhou City, Henan Province, 1.5 yuan/jin; Dry corn in Qi County, Kaifeng City, Henan Province is 1.5 yuan / catty.
Note: The above dry corn quotation comes from the market hall of Huinong.com, because the price of corn fluctuates greatly due to many factors, so it is only for your reference.
Corn price forecast for May
It is reported that in the North China market, corn prices in April showed a continuous downward trend. Driven by weather factors, farmers have accelerated the pace of grain sales, resulting in channel stocks becoming abundant. In this context, the market's willingness to further warehousing has become cautious, the supply of circulation links has increased significantly, and the arrival volume in front of enterprises has remained at a high level, resulting in a continuous decline in factory quotations and an increasingly obvious phenomenon of production and sales price inversion.
However, as we enter May, the situation has changed. As the pressure on grain sales at the grassroots level eased, the supply of corn in the market began to decrease. Although channel inventories are still high, the market's support sentiment for prices is strong, resulting in a decrease in the supply of corn in the circulation link. The bearish sentiment on the demand side has weakened, and dip replenishment behavior has become more common, making the corn market show a strong trend in volatility.
According to the analysis of some institutions, the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level in the North China market is about 88 percent, 3 percentage points slower than the same period last year. However, with the gradual reduction of food sources, farmers' willingness to sell grain has decreased. At the same time, due to the gap in local corn supply, some enterprises began to show the need to build up stocks, and corn prices rebounded slightly.
At present, the corn market is in the bottoming stage, and the market's support for prices is gradually increasing. In particular, with the reduction of surplus grain at the grassroots level, the corn supply gap still exists, the level of demand follow-up will gradually increase, the bargaining power of grain traders will increase, and the corn market has ushered in an opportunity to rise.
However, due to the short-term demand follow-up is limited, the inventory of enterprises is relatively safe, and the new wheat in the North China market is about to be listed, some companies may stop work for maintenance, and traders are also enthusiastic about vacating the warehouse, so the supply of corn is relatively loose.
To sum up, the corn market may continue to remain at the bottom of the shock in the short term, and the price is showing a trend of "easy to rise and difficult to fall", but the increase may remain at a low level. Market participants should pay close attention to the changes in the production of new wheat and the changes in the replenishment demand of deep processing enterprises to grasp the market dynamics.