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For more than a century, Latin America has been called the "backyard" of the United States. However, as recently as 2019, Russia set a fire in the "backyard" of the United States - the outbreak of a candidate crisis in Venezuela.
When the United States imposed sanctions on Venezuela, Russia sent a cargo ship to Venezuela to transport a large number of weapons, including 2S-19 self-propelled guns, to Venezuela, and put the United States on the chessboard.
So, what is the important strategic significance of Venezuela for the United States, and what impact will Russia's move have on the US-Russia game and the international pattern in the future?
Venezuelan election, why the United States is anxious
In 2019, Venezuela held a presidential election, and Nicolás Maduro, the leader of the United Socialist Party, became the new leader of Venezuela. However, just as the results of the Venezuelan election were announced, then-US President Trump declared the results of the Venezuelan election null and void, and the president of Venezuela should be someone else.
What is the reason why the United States behaves so "anxiously" in the face of the Venezuelan election?
The United States has long regarded Latin America as its "back garden". Whether it is Venezuela or other Latin American countries, the United States has adopted a strong attitude of interference to ensure that the candidates of these Latin American countries can represent the interests of the United States.
As early as 1835, then US President Monroe put forward the slogan that "the European continent shall not interfere in the affairs of the United States and Latin America", and "America is the Americas of Americans", which is the notorious "Monroe Doctrine" in American history.
Thus, although Latin America has become independent from the West for 200 years, the overwhelming majority of its leaders are spokesmen for American interests. If there are leaders of countries in Latin America that are not in line with the interests of the United States, the United States will either impose an economic blockade to force these countries to comply, or at worst launch a coup d'état or direct military aggression against these countries to overthrow the regime of that country.
The Aspen regime in Guatemala in Central America and the Allende regime in Chile in South America were both subjected to US military and armed subversion because of their opposition to US interests.
The reason why the results of the 2019 election in Venezuela are like great enemies is related to the fact that the United States has regarded Latin America as its "back garden" for many years, and on the other hand, the Socialist Unionist Party, which won the Venezuelan election, also involves the very sensitive nerves of the United States.
From the name of this party, we can roughly guess the nature of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela. This party is currently the largest left-wing party in Venezuela.
Domestically, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela advocates peaceful elections, not revolutionary, to build socialism in the country. Abroad, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela has a sympathetic and supportive attitude towards socialist countries such as China, Cuba and Vietnam, and the overwhelming majority of its members are staunch supporters of Bolivarianism.
So, what exactly is Bolivarianism? In the history of Latin America in the 19th century, there was a national hero named Bolívar. Under Bolivar's guidance, countries such as Colombia, Venezuela, and Argentina declared independence from the rule of Western colonizers such as Spain and established their own states.
After these countries declared independence, Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and other Latin American countries merged under the guidance of Bolivar to form the Republic of Gran Colombia, which was the second largest country in Latin America in terms of territory at that time.
Unfortunately, with the subsequent intervention of the United States, the Republic of Gran Colombia was dissolved, and Panama became a colony of the United States for a time, making the United States the only powerful country in the Western Hemisphere of the Americas.
Therefore, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, which advocates Bolivarianism today, has the lofty goal not only of building Venezuela into a socialist state, but also of leading the whole of Latin America in the future, free from the rule of the United States, and reintegrating the whole of Latin America into a socialist federation similar to that of the Soviet Union.
The Socialist Unionist Party of Venezuela's ambitious vision for the future can be said to have dug up the ancestral grave of the United States, which is why the United States is so hostile to the 2019 Venezuelan election.
Russia's arms exports to Venezuela have brought about new changes in Latin America
The United States declared the Venezuelan election null and void just after the United Nations Socialist Party of Venezuela won the election, which made diplomatic tensions between the two countries.
Just when everyone was sweating for Venezuela's situation, Russia suddenly announced the export of weapons to Venezuela, and Russia sent a 10,000-ton ocean-going cargo ship carrying weapons, including 2S-19 self-propelled guns, to Venezuela.
So, what exactly is the reason for Russia's arms exports to Venezuela? How has Russia's arms exports from Venezuela changed the new pattern in Latin America?
If we look at the history of diplomacy between Russia and Venezuela, we will find that Venezuela and Russia have had almost no friendship over the past century. Russia will choose to export weapons to Venezuela at a time when the United States and Venezuela are tense, not because of its close diplomatic relations with Venezuela, but more for the purpose of "igniting a fire" in the backyard of the United States and containing the United States diplomatically and strategically.
Russia's diplomatic chess set on fire in the backyard of the United States is nothing new in Russia's diplomatic history. In 1959, the socialist revolution broke out in Cuba in Latin America, and the Cuban revolutionary leader Castro led the Cuban people to overthrow the former pro-American Batista regime in Cuba and establish socialist Cuba. The outbreak of the revolution in Cuba frightened the United States, and the United States imposed a severe economic blockade on Cuba.
The revolution that broke out in Cuba, the backyard of the United States, quickly attracted the attention of the Soviet Union at that time. At that time, the Khrushchev regime in the Soviet Union was busy competing for global hegemony with the United States. The Soviet leader at the time, Nikita Khrushchev, realized that if the Soviet Union and Cuba could form a military alliance and the Soviet Union deployed medium- and long-range missiles in Cuba, then the Soviet missiles would be a direct deterrent to the economic hinterland of the United States.
Tempted by huge military interests, the Soviet Union secretly transported medium- and long-range missiles with nuclear warheads to Cuba in 1962, giving the Soviet Union a superior position over the United States in terms of missile range. However, the Cuban Missile Crisis erupted when American satellites photographed Soviet cargo ships secretly transporting missiles to Cuba.
Although the Cuban Missile Crisis was eventually resolved peacefully, at the request of the Soviet Union, the United States also withdrew its missiles deployed in Turkey and Greece, two countries close to the Soviet Union.
Therefore, Russia's support for Venezuela today with great fanfare, and does not hesitate to give Venezuela high-precision weapons such as the 2S-19 self-propelled artillery, in a sense, also wants to replicate the historical success of the Soviet Union in the Cuban Missile Crisis, so that Venezuela can not only retain the existing unified socialist regime, but also become an important regional force restraining the United States.
Another reason why Russia has spared no effort to provide aid to Venezuela is that both Russia and Venezuela have an important global resource in their hands – the precious oil of the industrial community.
In the world's oil production, Venezuela can be called the representative of "making a fortune in silence". People know that the Middle East is an important oil producing region in the world, but they don't know that Venezuela is the richest country in the world. According to statistics, Venezuela currently has 304 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, 10 billion barrels more than Saudi Arabia, which is known for its oil production in the world.
Unfortunately, due to the diplomatic intervention of the United States and the lack of developed oil production and refining technology in Venezuela, Venezuela is a neglected oil producer in the world, and it is difficult to occupy a place in the oil market.
After the outbreak of the Crimean crisis in 2014, Russia has been subject to economic sanctions from Western countries such as Europe and the United States for a long time, and is facing the dilemma of being marginalized in the global oil production market.
After the 2019 election won by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, Russia immediately threw an olive branch to Venezuela in the form of military assistance, hoping to further strengthen the oil cooperation between the two countries while strengthening the military armament of Venezuela.
If Russia and Venezuela reach in-depth cooperation in the oil field in the future, then the union of Russia and Venezuela is likely to form a large oil market no less than that of the Middle East.
If Russia and Venezuela implement RMB oil settlement, it will also greatly benefit China's RMB internationalization process.
What is the future of Venezuela?
The 2019 Venezuelan election crisis continues to this day, and diplomatic relations between the United States and Venezuela have not yet been restored. In the 2022 Russia-Ukraine military conflict, the Venezuelan authorities highly supported and affirmed Russia's special military operation, so where will the future situation in Venezuela go?
What lessons can the causes and consequences of the Venezuelan crisis bring to us today?
The outbreak of the Venezuelan crisis in 2019 further highlighted the decline of US global hegemony. Until then, the United States had only felt powerless to control the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region, and the 2019 election victory of Venezuela's left-wing parties proved that the United States may not even be able to control its traditional backyard, Latin America.
The economic and diplomatic pressure exerted by the United States on Venezuela has not intimidated the Venezuelan authorities, but has only highlighted the weakness and weakness of the United States in the face of today's global diplomatic landscape.
The rise to power of left-wing parties in Venezuela has further galvanized other left-wing parties in Latin America. If other left-wing parties in Latin America take power in the future, the influence of the United States in Latin America may be further shaken.
If these countries reach close military cooperation with Russia or other countries, it will mean that it will be difficult for the United States to have the illusion that the flames of war will not burn to its own soil.
In the face of the changes in Venezuela and the alienation of its allies, perhaps the United States should really seriously consider how unpopular its diplomacy has become over the years, and only by investing more of its own energy in the development of its own national economy and people's livelihood, and letting the fruits of development be shared by all mankind, can it be recognized and respected by other countries.
Bibliography:
[1] Maduro Wins Venezuelan Presidential Election, Asia-Pacific Daily, April 15, 2013
[2] Venezuelan Vice President Nicolas Maduro: From driver to Chavez successor
[3] Maduro's inauguration was announced on the same day that Paraguay announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Venezuela
[4] The United States announced financial sanctions against Venezuela
[5] U.S. sanctions on Venezuela cut off funding sources