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At a time when the global demand for electric vehicles is slowing down, many automakers are turning to hybrid technology as a transitional solution in the face of increasingly stringent environmental regulations and carbon emission pressures. Hybrid vehicles can not only reduce dependence on traditional fuels, but also reduce carbon emissions to a certain extent, which is in line with the trend of environmental protection. In addition, hybrid vehicles have a longer range and are more convenient to charge, which is in line with the actual needs of consumers. Against this backdrop, Tesla has countered that prioritizing the development of hybrid vehicles is one of the reasons for the decline in demand for electric vehicles.
On April 23, at the beginning of Tesla's 2024 first-quarter financial report, Tesla accused the current automotive industry as a whole of excessive attention and investment in hybrid vehicles, which has put significant pressure on global electric vehicle sales, including Tesla's own market share. Tesla's management admits that while this trend is conducive to the company's additional revenue from the sale of regulatory credits in the short term, in the long run, Tesla expects the entire industry to unswervingly promote the adoption of pure electric vehicles, as it is highly consistent with Tesla's mission to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.
At the same time, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made it clear at the earnings conference that although electric vehicles are facing a siege of hybrid products from traditional car companies and emerging competitors in the short term, Tesla firmly believes that pure electric vehicles are the absolute masters of the future market. He emphasized that the development and application of intelligent technology in the automotive field is very important, and each car must have advanced intelligent features, otherwise it will not be able to win the favor of consumers.
Musk believes that as Tesla's advantages in electric vehicle technology, especially in the field of full self-driving, gradually emerge, licensing related technologies to other automakers will become a key part of the company's business growth in the future. This technology output will not only bring huge benefits to Tesla, but also accelerate the pace of the global automotive industry's transition to pure electric vehicles.
Looking back at the development of the new energy vehicle industry from the "battle between electric and hybrid vehicles":
-- The development status of the pure electric vehicle market
In recent years, the global pure electric vehicle market has maintained rapid growth, mainly supported by two key factors: one is the improvement of battery technology, and the other is the popularization of new charging technology. The performance of the battery is related to the range of the vehicle and is the key to the consumer experience. Batteries account for nearly 40% of the cost of electric vehicles, and battery price is the key to determining the cost performance of electric vehicles.
From the perspective of battery technology, BYD blade battery is currently a kind of lithium iron phosphate battery in the forefront of the industry in terms of comprehensive advantages in the world, which entered the mass production stage in March 2020. In addition, sodium-ion batteries and solid-state batteries, which are in the R&D stage and ready for large-scale mass production, are still in the field of battery technology. According to the facts disclosed by Marklines and a number of listed companies in the industry, entering 2023, a large number of solid-state battery companies will deliver solid-state battery products, and solid-state batteries will usher in the era of large-scale mass production and loading. At the same time, CATL said in April 2023 that it would release condensed matter batteries at the 2023 Shanghai International Auto Show, which opens on April 18, 2023. Condensed matter battery is a new type of battery technology, using a solid electrolyte to replace the traditional electrolyte, compared with the traditional liquid battery, the core of the condensed matter battery is to achieve superfluidity, superconductivity, so as to have more superior stability, conductivity, that is, the battery is more stable, larger capacity, conduction efficiency faster.
From 2018 to 2022, the mainland pure electric vehicle market has developed rapidly, and the production and sales of pure electric vehicles have increased rapidly. In 2022, the output of pure electric vehicles in mainland China will be 5.467 million units, a year-on-year increase of 98.01%; The sales volume was 5.365 million units, a year-on-year increase of 96.23%. Compared with 2018, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles in mainland China have increased by more than five times. In the first half of 2023, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles in mainland China will be 2.747 million units and 2.719 million units, respectively, an increase of 30.3% and 31.9% compared with the same period in 2022.
-- The development status of the plug-in hybrid vehicle market
As a transitional product from traditional vehicles to pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have become an important product type for major automobile companies to cope with increasingly stringent fuel consumption and emission regulations and improve product competitiveness. Major foreign car companies have successively formulated a full range of plug-in and hybrid development strategies to create a number of internationally competitive new energy vehicles.
From 2018 to 2020, the overall production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles in mainland China were relatively stable, fluctuating between 200,000 and 300,000 units, and in 2021, the plug-in hybrid vehicle market in mainland China ushered in explosive growth, with production reaching 598,000 units and sales of 600,000 units, an increase of 130.00% and 139.04% year-on-year respectively. In 2022, the rapid growth trend of the plug-in hybrid vehicle market will continue, with production and sales of 1.589 million and 1.518 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 164.64% and 153.00%, respectively. In the first half of 2023, the domestic production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles will be 1.039 million and 1.025 million units, respectively, an increase of 88.6% and 91.1% year-on-year.
There are two main reasons for the explosive growth of plug-in hybrid vehicles, one is that many domestic car companies have entered the plug-in hybrid vehicles, such as BYD's DM-i super hybrid, Chery's Kunpeng DHT hybrid, and GAC Trumpchi through cooperation with Toyota, has obtained the most advantageous hybrid technology support, which has increased the popularity of the plug-in hybrid vehicle market. There is still no perfect solution to problems such as imperfect charging facilities, which makes the consumer market have a rapid increase in the recognition of plug-in hybrid vehicles.
According to the analysis of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, from the perspective of the development trend of the market segment, the future development space of the pure electric market is still large, and there is a certain possibility that plug-in hybrid vehicles will be replaced in the future. At present, fuel cell vehicles have not yet formed a large-scale individual user group, and they are still mainly used in commercial scenarios.
Goldman Sachs noted in the report that they are increasingly bullish on the prospects for hybrid/plug-in hybrids, and that sales of hybrids and plug-in hybrids have been accelerating amid a slowdown in EV sales. In the U.S., growth has outpaced electric vehicles over the past few months, and global sales of hybrid vehicles could exceed expectations by 1 million to 2 million units.
Prospective Economist APP Information Group
For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "Analysis Report on Market Prospect and Investment Strategic Planning of China's New Energy Vehicle Industry" by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute.
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