Industrial Rebound, Service Industry Improves, Positive Factors Accumulate and Increase China's economy has started steadily

　　"In the first quarter, the national economy got off to a good start, and the accumulation of positive factors increased, laying a good foundation for achieving the goals and tasks of the whole year. On April 16, at a press conference held by the Information Office of the State Council, Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced the economic operation in the first quarter and interpreted the relevant data.

　　The contribution rate of industry and service to GDP growth was 37.3% and 55.7% respectively

　　Gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter increased by 5.3% year-on-year, how should we look at it? Sheng Laiyun interpreted it from three aspects.

　　First, it is in line with reality. GDP growth in the first quarter was mainly driven by the rebound of industry and the improvement of the service industry. In the first quarter, the industrial added value increased by 6%, a significant rebound over the same period last year and the fourth quarter of last year, contributing 37.3% to GDP growth, driving GDP growth by nearly 2 percentage points. In the first quarter, the added value of the service industry increased by 5% year-on-year, of which the added value of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, transportation, warehousing and postal services, accommodation and catering, and wholesale and retail trade increased by 13.7 percent, 10.8 percent, 7.3 percent, 7.3 percent, and 6 percent respectively. The service industry maintained a good development trend, continuing to rebound on the basis of last year's high base, contributing 55.7% to GDP growth. In terms of consumption types, the consumption of contact services and non-food services grew rapidly, with retail sales of services increasing by 10% in the first quarter, 6 percentage points faster than that of retail sales of goods.

　　Second, there is support. In the first quarter, the country's investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 4.5 percent year-on-year, or 5.9 percent in real terms after deducting the impact of price factors, while the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.7 percent year-on-year, and exports increased by 4.9 percent. From the perspective of demand accounting, the three major demand indicators of investment, consumption and exports match GDP growth.

　　Third, it matches the growth of physical volume indicators. In the first quarter, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 9.6%, the industrial electricity consumption increased by about 8%, the freight volume increased by 5.3%, the operating passenger traffic increased by 20.5%, and the port cargo throughput increased by 6.1%. Looking at bank loan data, the balance of broad money (M2) increased by 8.3% year-on-year at the end of March.

　　"Overall, the economy has continued to recover, started steadily, made steady progress, and achieved a good start. Sheng Laiyun said that in the next step, while consolidating and enhancing the economic rebound, we should further pay attention to the imbalance of economic development.

　　The industrial economy has rebounded for the better, and the development of new productive forces has shown new results

　　In the first quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1 percent year-on-year, an increase of 3.1 percentage points over the same period last year, and an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the fourth quarter of last year.

　　Driven by policies, the confidence in the development of enterprises is increasing. Since the beginning of this year, various regions and departments have introduced a series of policies and measures to support the development of the real economy, which have had a positive effect on enhancing the production momentum of enterprises, improving the development environment of enterprises, and enhancing the confidence of enterprise development. In March, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.8%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the PMI index of large and medium-sized enterprises was above the critical value of 50% at the same time.

　　There have been positive changes in both domestic and foreign demand, which have supported the growth of the industrial economy. From the perspective of external demand, the world economy showed signs of recovery, and exports increased by 4.9% in the first quarter, better than expected. From the perspective of domestic demand, the added value of the consumer goods manufacturing industry increased by 4.2 percent in the first quarter, 4.1 percentage points faster than that in the fourth quarter of last year.

　　Policy measures such as large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods have boosted business confidence to a certain extent, and some companies have scheduled production ahead of schedule. Sheng Laiyun believes that from the perspective of the future trend, the upward trend of the industrial economy will continue to be maintained.

　　In the first quarter, the development of new quality productive forces showed new results in some industries, business activities, and products.

　　The development of emerging industries has accelerated. In the first quarter, the added value of the high-tech manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 7.5 percent year-on-year, an increase of 2.6 percentage points over the fourth quarter of last year; the high-tech service industry continued to maintain a relatively rapid growth trend, and the added value of the information transmission, software, and information technology service industry increased by 13.7 percent, an increase of 2.5 percentage points over the fourth quarter of last year.

　　Accelerate the cultivation of new products and maintain a rapid growth rate. The output of new energy vehicles increased by 29.2% in the first quarter of this year on the basis of the rapid growth in previous years. In the first quarter, the output of charging piles, 3D printing equipment and electronic components increased by 41.7%, 40.6% and 39.5% year-on-year respectively.

　　New investment and new infrastructure continue to show a good momentum of development. In the first quarter, investment in high-tech industries increased by 11.4 percent year-on-year, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over last year, and investment in high-tech services increased by 12.7 percent. The construction of new infrastructure such as 5G base stations, eastern and western computing, and optical fiber communications has been accelerated.

　　Consumption continues to improve, and CPI is expected to rebound moderately at a low level

　　Steady growth in consumption is an important factor supporting economic growth. In the first quarter, the consumer market showed many bright spots: physical consumption was generally stable, with the total retail sales of consumer goods exceeding 12 trillion yuan; service consumption grew rapidly, with retail sales of services increasing by 10% in the first quarter, and residents' per capita consumption expenditure on services increasing by 12.7%, 4.4 percentage points higher than the growth rate of 8.3% of the national per capita consumption expenditure, and the proportion is increasing; online consumption continued to be strong, with online retail sales of physical goods increasing by 11.6% in the first quarter; Upgraded consumption continued to improve, with retail sales of sports and entertainment goods and communication equipment of units above designated size increasing by 14.2 percent and 13.2 percent respectively.

　　"From the perspective of the future, the favorable conditions to support consumption are still increasing. All localities have built consumer brands, improved consumption conditions, and created an environment conducive to residents' consumption. The sustained recovery of the economy, the increase in residents' income, and the improvement of employment are conducive to enhancing the ability of consumption, and consumer confidence is also rising. Sheng Laiyun believes that the mainland has a large population, consumption has scale advantages, and the huge market consumption potential is also the ballast stone for China's economy to continue to stabilize and improve.

　　For the price trend, Sheng Laiyun analyzed.

　　Let's start with the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In March, the CPI retreated, but the CPI was generally stable in the first quarter, and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.7% year-on-year in the first quarter, basically the same as the fourth quarter of last year. "The economy continues to improve and aggregate demand rebounds, which will support the recovery of CPI. Holiday consumption will continue to drive the recovery of tourism and travel consumer prices. Sheng Laiyun believes that in the next stage, CPI is expected to rebound moderately at a low level.

　　Let's look at the producer price index (PPI). In the first quarter, the PPI continued its downward trend since last year, while the decline continued to narrow. Sheng Laiyun said that the preliminary research and judgment shows that the PPI will continue to decline and rise steadily, "the recovery of aggregate demand is conducive to supporting the recovery of prices, and the policy effect will continue to appear." The intensification of industrial transformation and upgrading will bring positive changes to the relationship between supply and demand in the market. ”