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ASML's orders plummeted by more than 60%, and analysts warned: the decline in performance was greater than expected [with ASML's lithography machine supply and demand analysis]

author:Qianzhan Network
ASML's orders plummeted by more than 60%, and analysts warned: the decline in performance was greater than expected [with ASML's lithography machine supply and demand analysis]

Source: Photo.com

On April 17, ASML, a global lithography machine giant, released its financial report for the first quarter of 2024. During the period, net sales of €5.3 billion decreased 22% year-on-year and 27% quarter-on-quarter, and net profit of €1.2 billion decreased 40% quarter-on-quarter.

ASML's stock price fell sharply in pre-market due to the latest disclosure of first-quarter orders that were far lower than market expectations, falling more than 5% at one point.

Some analysts said that ASML's latest financial results were not the numbers that many investors hoped or expected, and that the decline was larger than expected and could be a worrying early warning sign.

At present, ASML's market capitalization is 385.5 billion US dollars, equivalent to about 2.74 trillion yuan.

Photoresist is a typical industry with high technical barriers

Photoresist is the material with the highest technical barriers in electronic chemicals, which has the characteristics of high purity requirements, complex production process, large investment in production and testing equipment, and long technology accumulation period. From the perspective of related technologies, the core technology of photoresist includes formulation technology, quality control technology and raw material technology, formulation technology is the core of the photoresist function, and quality control technology can ensure the stability of photoresist performance, and the quality of photoresist raw materials plays a key role in the quality of photoresist.

Photoresist production requires a lithography machine for supporting testing, so the lithography machine is an indispensable part of photoresist research and development. According to the information on the R&D project of high-end photoresist for integrated circuit manufacturing announced by Jingrui Electric Materials in August 2021, the total investment in the R&D project is 488.5 million yuan, of which the equipment and installation fees account for 69% of the total investment, and the lithography machine (imported ASML lithography machine) accounts for 44% of the equipment and installation costs, reaching 150 million yuan.

ASML's orders plummeted by more than 60%, and analysts warned: the decline in performance was greater than expected [with ASML's lithography machine supply and demand analysis]
There are many suppliers of ASML lithography machines

Lithography machine is a product with extremely high technical barriers, and the complex supply chain is one of the reasons for its high technical barriers. From the perspective of ASML's suppliers, extreme ultraviolet light sources, lenses, photomasks and other consumables are provided by different suppliers and distributed in different regions:

ASML's orders plummeted by more than 60%, and analysts warned: the decline in performance was greater than expected [with ASML's lithography machine supply and demand analysis]
Lithography machines are mainly sold to the Asia-Pacific region

From the perspective of the regional distribution of the company's revenue, from 2018 to 2020, the company's sales share in Taiwan has increased overall, the sales share in South Korea has decreased, and the sales share in Chinese mainland has remained at about 15%. It can be seen that ASML's lithography machines are mainly sold in Asia:

ASML's orders plummeted by more than 60%, and analysts warned: the decline in performance was greater than expected [with ASML's lithography machine supply and demand analysis]

In general, ASML, as a giant in the lithography machine industry, has won the trust and recognition of customers around the world with its excellent products and innovative technology.

At the same time, CITIC Securities believes that domestic investment and support for the lithography machine industry chain continue to increase, the development of domestic high-end lithography machines is expected to be promoted, and the semiconductor equipment industry chain is expected to benefit simultaneously. The brokerage believes that in the future, if DUV and EUV equipment gradually achieve a breakthrough in localization, the 28nm and 14nm production lines have the ability to gradually achieve domestic substitution, and it is expected to usher in a new round of semiconductor expansion cycle.

Prospective Economist APP Information Group

For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "Market Prospect and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report of China's Lithography Machine Industry" by the Prospective Industry Research Institute.

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