In 2023, the Chinese population will experience negative growth for the second consecutive year, confirming that this is not an accidental phenomenon, but the general tone of our development in the coming decades.
This means that the era of rapid growth by relying on large-scale cheap labor in exchange for the past has officially passed, and the future demographic changes will force China's economy to develop along a higher quality path.
At the same time, for local governments, this also means that the "war for people" will intensify. At this juncture, the 2023 population data released by 28 provinces has become the focus of public opinion.
1
In 2023, the main feature of the changes in the Chinese population is - concentration.
Between provinces, the population is further concentrated in developed places; Within the provincial borders, the majority of the population moves to the provincial capital.
Of the 28 provinces for which population data have been released, nine provinces have shown positive growth in permanent population, namely Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hainan, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Xinjiang, Guizhou, Beijing and Tianjin.
Compared with the pattern of positive growth in the permanent population of 18 provinces in 2022, last year's data clearly means that the inter-provincial population competition is rapidly intensifying.
Specifically, the total population increase of the nine growing provinces was 1,602,500. If you look closely, it is only Zhejiang and Guangdong that have really seen large-scale growth.
Zhejiang's permanent population increased by 500,000, Guangdong's by 490,000, and the other seven provinces together increased by more than 600,000.
Among them, the most dramatic is the population data of Guangdong.
As China's largest province with the largest stable population, the news that Guangdong's permanent population had dropped by 272,000 the year before last shocked the whole country.
You must know that since 2002, Guangdong's population has been steadily on an upward slope. In 2021, Guangdong also added 600,000 people, ranking second in the country in terms of increment.
However, in just one year, the increase from 600,000 to -272,000, ranking from the second to the bottom of the country, both the magnitude and the suddenness, made this topic detonate public opinion at that time.
If you look closely, the number of births in Guangdong was 1.052 million, and the number of deaths was 630,000, which was actually a natural increase of 422,000. In other words, in terms of mechanical population growth alone – that is, population mobility – Guangdong actually had an outflow of 692,000 people.
For so many years, Guangdong has always been a popular destination for migrant workers across the country by virtue of its developed social level and cheap pork knuckle rice. "East, West, South, North, Middle, Fortune to Guangdong", this image collapsed in just 1 year?
For a time, a large number of voices sang about Guangdong's decline on the Internet, and the arguments about Guangdong's backward industrial structure and export collapse appeared frequently, and even the talk of "northeasternization" appeared. To this end, the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics also published a special article in response, saying that this is a phased phenomenon of the temporary return of floating population from outside the province to their hometowns under the influence of the factors of frequent outbreaks of the epidemic in Guangdong in 2022.
However, the data for the new year slaps the "Northeasternization" argument in the face. At the end of 2023, Guangdong's permanent population will be 127.06 million, an increase of 490,000 again, second only to Zhejiang in terms of increment, and back to the second place in the country.
Not only that, on the first day after the new year, the leaders of Guangdong Province revealed at the high-quality development conference that the real-time population in Guangdong has reached 150 million, and the population flow and economic activity will be further improved.
150 million people, what is the concept? Russia's total population is 145 million people, ranking 9th in the world. In other words, if Guangdong participates in the population ranking of countries in the world, it can rank 9th.
A province that occupies only 1.87% of the country's land area is home to more than one-tenth of the population, and according to the National Bureau of Statistics, China has about 130 million inter-provincial migrants, a quarter of whom are in Guangdong.
However, the rapidly changing population has also sounded the alarm bell for Guangdong Province.
The core reason for the drastic population fluctuation is that Guangdong has lagged behind in industrial upgrading in recent years and has been unable to retain people.
Although it is a major manufacturing province, a large part of Guangdong's manufacturing industry still relies on the support of traditional manufacturing.
In addition, in recent years, the central cities of inland provinces have shown a rising trend, and emerging growth poles such as Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan and Changsha have emerged, and Guangdong's traditional manufacturing industry has become more and more unattractive.
Compared with Guangdong, Zhejiang, which has performed better in industrial upgrading in recent years, has become the biggest winner in the talent competition.
In 2021, Zhejiang's permanent population increased by 720,000, making it the province with the highest permanent population increase in the country that year.
In 2022, Zhejiang's permanent population will increase by 370,000, ranking first in the country.
In 2023, Zhejiang's permanent population will increase by 500,000, ranking first for the third consecutive year. If the natural growth rate of -0.86‰ is counted, the inflow of permanent residents in Zhejiang last year has reached 550,000.
Behind this, the added value of 29 of the 38 industrial industries increased over the previous year, 6 industries grew by double digits, the added value of the manufacturing industry, the core industry of the digital economy above designated size, increased by 8.3%, and the added value of the new energy industry, equipment manufacturing industry and strategic emerging industries increased by 13.9%, 9.4% and 6.3% respectively.
In terms of economic aggregate, Zhejiang's GDP will exceed 8 trillion yuan for the first time in 2023 and achieve a growth rate of 6%, far exceeding that of Guangdong and Jiangsu.
In terms of per capita disposable income, in 2023, the per capita disposable income of residents in Zhejiang Province will exceed 60,000 yuan, ranking third in the country after Beijing and Shanghai.
It is worth mentioning that all districted cities in Zhejiang have achieved positive growth in permanent population in 2023, which is unique in the country. This kind of comprehensive and balanced development among regions has avoided the rapid congestion of a few economically developed areas, which has brought huge pressure on urban construction and the decline in the quality of life of the masses.
In the long run, Zhejiang and Guangdong have changed their offensive and defensive positions, and Zhejiang will be China's largest destination for population mobility for a long time to come.
2
After looking at the growth, let's look at the areas with declining populations.
Overall, the Northeast has maintained a long-term trend of population decline, but there are surprising bright spots in this normalcy.
According to data released by the Jilin Provincial Bureau of Statistics, the permanent population of the province at the end of 2023 was 23,394,100, a decrease of 82,800 from 2022.
Don't look at this number as negative, counting the natural decrease of 126,200 people, then the mechanical growth of Jilin's population has reached 43,400.
Don't look at the small figure of 43,400, this is the first time since 2011 that Jilin Province has seen a net inflow of population in nearly 13 years. In the past 13 years, it is common for Jilin to have a population outflow of more than 300,000, and less than 200,000 is beyond expectations, and the positive growth can be called a miracle.
In addition to the miracle in Jilin, it also appeared in Liaoning. In 2023, Liaoning's population will also rebound historically, with a net inflow of 86,000 people.
Therefore, at the beginning of this year, "Northeast population return" was once on the hot search.
Of course, the foreign population belongs to the foreign population, and the decline in the local fertility rate in Northeast China has always been a lingering shadow on regional development. As a result of the contraction of natural growth, the total population of the Northeast is still trapped in a continuous downward trend.
Another place where anomalies occur is in the central region.
The year before last, the population of four of the six central provinces rebounded, which was seen as a good sign for the relocation of coastal industries to the interior and the attraction of population back.
Unfortunately, last year there was a collective "collapse" of the six central provinces.
The total number of people in the six provinces decreased by more than 1.33 million. Among them, Henan decreased by 570,000 compared with the previous year, Hunan decreased by 360,000, Shanxi decreased by 153,600, Jiangxi decreased by 129,700, and Anhui and Hubei both decreased by 60,000.
Among the six provinces, Henan, Hunan, Shanxi, and Jiangxi belong to the category of "double decline" of natural growth and mechanical growth.
Henan's natural population decreased by 92,000, with a net outflow of 478,000;
Hunan's natural population decreased by 203,000, with a net outflow of 157,000;
The natural population of Jiangxi Province decreased by 38,000, and the net outflow of population was 91,700;
The natural population of Shanxi Province decreased by 78,000, and the net outflow of population was 75,600.
As a result, Henan became the province with the largest population decline last year.
Anhui and Hubei belong to the other kind, with natural population growth declining, but relying on the attraction of external talent, siphoning a part of the population of surrounding provinces.
Among them, the natural population of Hubei decreased by 184,000, and the net inflow of population was 124,000;
Anhui's natural population decreased by 129,000, and the net inflow of population was 69,200.
Hubei is a key region to promote the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, promote the rise of the central region, and consolidate the strategic pattern of "two horizontal and three vertical" urbanization, and has an important position in the economic and social development pattern of the mainland. It is far away from the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, and is weakly affected by the siphon, which in turn can attract people from surrounding cities.
In recent years, Anhui's deep integration into the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta has continued to strengthen, and it has undertaken a large number of industrial transfers from Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai. At present, 10% of the world's notebook computers, 20% of LCD screens, 50% of photovoltaic glass, 20% of the country's photovoltaic modules, 15% of household appliances, and 10% of new energy vehicles are produced in Anhui.
Hefei is a star city in China's development in recent years. In the case of successive "venture capital" bets, Hefei has become an important domestic player in emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, new displays, photovoltaics, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence.
Attracted by the industry, Hefei's population growth momentum will be strong in 2023, with a net increase of 219,000 people, a figure that temporarily ranks first among the country's 26 trillion cities.
Not only Hefei, but also central provincial capitals such as Zhengzhou (+180,000), Wuhan (+35,000), and Nanchang (+3.0) have all achieved population growth.
The strategy of "strengthening provincial capitals" has been fruitful, and may be able to give some comfort to these provinces that are lagging behind in population competition.
Finally, let's take a look at Shandong, a major fertility province.
Since 2001, the number of births in Shandong has remained above one million; Especially with the implementation of the "two-child" policy, the number of births in Shandong soared to 1.77 million in 2016 and continued to maintain a high level of 1.75 million in 2017.
However, the policy stimulus effect did not last long, and since 2018, the number of births in Shandong has been declining year by year. Combined with the outflow figures, Shandong's permanent population at the end of 2022 decreased by 72,000 compared with the end of 2021, the first decline in nearly 40 years.
At the end of 2023, the permanent population will continue to decrease by nearly 400,000, and Shandong has entered a downward channel.
3
Population growth and regional development are a closed loop.
The population flow conforms to the law that people go with production and people go to higher places, and the differences in industrial structure and economic development level in various regions are the main factors driving population flow.
On the other hand, population, as a key element of economic development, can not only drive the development of local industries and public consumption, but also inject impetus into the high-quality and high-quality development of the region.
Judging from the demographic changes across the country in 2023, the "Matthew effect" between regions has emerged, with developed coastal areas accelerating the siphoning of inland population, and central provinces facing greater pressure if they want to rise.
In short, in the new stage of negative population growth, the decrease in the number of provinces with positive population growth is not only a reflection of the new characteristics of Chinese population mobility, but also a sign of the intensification of competition for people in various regions.
In the face of this challenge, how to carry out scientific and comprehensive industrial planning in various regions to promote the rational flow and optimal allocation of population, and then promote the sustainable and healthy development of the economy and society, is an urgent issue that local governments need to face.
The Economist APP Industry Observation Group
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Resources:
[1] The latest population flow trend: Zhejiang overtakes Guangdong, and Hubei ranks first in the central part of the net inflow Luzhong Morning News
[2] In 2023, the trend of population agglomeration to provincial capitals will continue, and Hefei will increase by 219,000 people 21st Century Business Herald
[3] 28 provinces released population data for 2023, and only 4 provinces have a positive natural growth rate Interface News