Host of this issue: Southern Weekly reporter Wang Jinlin
Commentators:
Sun Wenzhu, associate research fellow at the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, China Institute of International Studies
Chinese military expert Zhang Xuefeng
Li Xinggang, researcher of the Institute of Circum-Mediterranean Studies, Zhejiang University of Foreign Chinese
Yang Zhen, Deputy Director of the Center for Northeast Asian Studies at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law
Defense
▶ The first trilateral summit was held, why did the United States, Japan and the Philippines frequently collude
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (from left to right) pose for a group photo before the trilateral summit at the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 11, 2024 local time. (Visual China/Photo)
On April 11, 2024, U.S. President Joe Biden held the first trilateral summit with the leaders of Japan and the Philippines. U.S. media reported that the central topic of the talks was "a collective demonstration of trilateral maritime power against China."
It is worth noting that as early as 29 March last month, the US "Washington Post" disclosed the contents of the preparations for the newly formed "Littoral Regiment" formed by the US military with the goal of "striking at China" under the headline "In Response to War with China, the Marine Corps Is Adjusting Its Combat Methods."
On April 10, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stressed at a regular press conference that some countries outside the region, led by the United States, have been cobbling together small circles in the South China Sea, engaging in confrontation in the name of cooperation, and "flexing their muscles" in the name of peace, which is an out-and-out hegemonic act. Any intervention by external forces will not affect China's determination and will to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.
Sun Wenzhu, associate researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, China Institute of International Studies:
In the context of great power competition, under the U.S.-led "Indo-Pacific" and "mini-multilateral" security cooperation framework, the trilateral security cooperation between the United States, Japan and the Philippines has recently performed more prominently. The United States seeks to consolidate the resources of its allies to contain China in order to maintain its hegemony; Japan hopes to use the strength of the alliance system to enhance its international status and become a real "political power"; and the Philippines hopes to seize the opportunity to win external support for its economic and military development and seek to maximize its own interests.
Under the guidance of so-called "shared values" such as "freedom of navigation" and "a free and open Indo-Pacific", the United States, Japan and the Philippines have promoted regular joint military exercises, enhanced joint maritime vigilance and surveillance capabilities, and presented a trend of "pan-security", exploring the expansion of security cooperation into economic, scientific and technological fields.
Given the differences between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines over strategic goals and cost-sharing methods, as well as their own internal constraints, it is difficult for the three countries to form a formal security alliance in the short term.
Chinese military expert Zhang Xuefeng:
At present, the Philippines hopes to win over more foreign powers to support some of its moves in the South China Sea, while the United States, which attaches great importance to cobbling together "small circles" and "small groups", is also happy to see Japan and Australia intervene in the South China Sea.
The Philippines is a fox and a fake tiger, and the United States itself feels that it does not have enough confidence for the Philippines, so it has roped in foreign countries to support the scene.
Even though the United States and Japan are more closely bound, if Japan is willing to serve as a springboard for the United States to attack China in the future, or a "rear base". Japan will inevitably be set on fire. The United States, on the other hand, can jump out of the first island chain and watch the fire from across the strait. However, the Philippines' interests in the United States and its position in the territory of foreign teachers in the United States are far less than those of Japan. Although the United States is now cheering up and supporting the Philippines from time to time, if the United States wants to abandon an ally in the island chain, then the Philippines will be the first choice.
It can be seen that it is extremely irrational for the resources of these two countries to even take the initiative to become a member of the "anti-China chariot" of the United States.
▶ With a sudden and large-scale withdrawal of troops from Gaza, what is Israel calculating?
On April 9, 2024 local time, after the withdrawal of Israeli troops, some Palestinian residents began to return to their devastated homes. (Visual China/Photo)
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrew most of its ground forces on 7 April after four months of continuous fighting in the southern Gaza Strip, including Khan Younis.
The Jerusalem Post reported that the 98th Israeli Division, which had been fighting in the Khan Younis area for four months, was evacuated, leaving behind the "Nahar Brigade". According to the report, the main role of the "Nahar Brigades" is to "'protect' the so-called 'Nezarim corridor' and prevent the return of Gaza people to the northern part of the Gaza Strip". The "corridor", which was unilaterally demarcated by Israel and crosses the Gaza Strip, is planned to be used by Israel to isolate the entire northern part of Gaza from the rest of the country.
According to data released by the Palestinian health department in the Gaza Strip on the 6th, since the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on October 7, 2023, the Israeli army's military operations in the Gaza Strip have resulted in 33,137 deaths and 75,815 injuries on the Palestinian side.
Li Xinggang, researcher of the Institute of Circum-Mediterranean Studies, Zhejiang University of Foreign Chinese:
In fact, since January 2024, Israel has been gradually reducing its military forces in Gaza, moving to other possible conflict directions, such as northern Israel, and the withdrawal of troops, which was originally an ongoing process, has now suddenly accelerated, which is related to the deterioration of the situation in the region in recent days. This large-scale withdrawal is largely in response to possible retaliatory action from Iran.
Although the expulsion of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip is the deepest and truest wish of the Netanyahu government, it has become an impossible attempt to do so, as it will expose Israel and the United States to unbearable international pressure and moral condemnation.
In addition, Israel faces possible retaliation from Iran, and the transfer of military forces to Israeli territory reduces the risk of direct retaliatory strikes on the one hand, and can respond to more dangerous challenges on the other.
The intensity and method of Iran's possible retaliation and the development of Israel's domestic political situation will affect the future direction of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. On the one hand, growing concerns about the security of hostages in Israel will push the Israeli Government to find a non-conflict solution, and on the other hand, a ground offensive against Rafah is virtually unlikely.
The gradual de-escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict after Iran's possible retaliatory actions is a possible trend with a relatively high probability.
▶ Why is the United States supplying Ukraine with "captured" Iranian weapons?
The U.S. Central Command said on April 9 that the U.S. government provided Ukraine with a batch of weapons "captured" from Iranian forces on the 4th.
According to a statement released by the Central Command on its social media account on the same day, more than 5,000 weapons were sent to Ukraine, including automatic rifles, machine guns, sniper rifles and anti-tank weapons, as well as more than 500,000 rounds of ammunition. These weapons are enough to equip a combat brigade of the Ukrainian army with light weapons.
Between May 2021 and February 2023, U.S. naval forces affiliated to CENTCOM and U.S. "partner" nations "seized" the weapons from four stateless vessels, which were being delivered by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to Yemen's Houthis, in violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 2216, the statement said. On December 1, 2023, the U.S. government acquired ownership of the weapons through the U.S. Department of Justice's "civil forfeiture claim" against Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
At present, the U.S. government is unable to provide additional weapons assistance to Ukraine due to the exhaustion of aid funds for Ukraine, and the White House's request to Congress for about $60 billion in aid to Ukraine has been delayed due to Republicans' obstruction. In this case, the Biden administration's aid to Ukraine with weapons that originally belonged to Iran was interpreted as a helpless move to be constrained.
Yang Zhen, Deputy Director of the Center for Northeast Asian Studies of Shanghai University of Political Science and Law:
The United States is still engaged in psychological warfare by providing Ukraine with weapons that have been so-called "captured" of Iran, trying to embarrass its opponents. In the Red Sea crisis, which is absolutely detrimental to the interests of the United States, Iran's support for the Houthis is no longer a secret. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is the root cause of the Red Sea crisis and is related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The U.S. move is not only to strengthen Ukraine's strength, but also to send a signal to Iran and Russia that the U.S. Navy is still an effective intervening force that can cut off the enemy's sea routes. There are even signs that this signal is being sent to China.
This situation is inevitable due to the current situation. After the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the United States was actually in a very passive state. First, Israel, a strategic pawn in the Middle East, lost its strategic deterrence capability almost overnight; and then the outbreak of the Red Sea crisis not only impacted the United States' naval superiority and maritime hegemony, but also suffered a serious setback to its strategy of cooperation in maritime power. In this passive situation, the United States desperately needs a victory to boost morale and improve the situation.
outburst
▶ Several relatives of Hamas leaders were killed in Israeli airstrikes
Pictured here are the cars in which the three sons of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh were killed in Israeli airstrikes. The attack comes as Cairo negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage release agreement continue to drag on, with no signs of a breakthrough. (Visual China/Photo)
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Israel's General Directorate of National Security (NSB) issued a joint statement on the evening of April 10, saying that the Israeli Air Force launched an airstrike on the central Gaza Strip on the same day, killing three Hamas fighters, including a squad commander. The three were later identified as Chania's sons.
A statement issued by the Hamas media office on the same day said that Israeli forces attacked the Shati refugee camp in Gaza City that day, killing at least five people. Three of them were Chania's sons and the other two were Chania's grandchildren.
Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant were unaware of the airstrike, which could have a negative impact on ongoing ceasefire talks in Gaza.
In an interview with Qatar's Al Jazeera on the same day, Haniyeh said that Israel's killing of several of his relatives would not make Hamas make concessions in the Gaza ceasefire talks.
The day before the airstrikes killed relatives of Hamas leaders, Hamas said it was interested in reaching an agreement, but Israel's position was "stubborn" and did not meet any demands of the Palestinian side. Hamas will continue to study the latest proposals before replying to its mediators, Egypt and Qatar.
Hamas has repeatedly stated that the release is premised on a permanent truce between Israeli forces, a withdrawal from Gaza, and the return of Palestinians displaced by the fighting. Israel, on the other hand, only agreed to a short-term ceasefire, vowed not to give up until Hamas was completely eliminated, and would continue to attack Gaza after the ceasefire ended.
▶ About 200 Burmese soldiers fled to Thailand
On April 12, 2024 local time, a truck from Myanmar stopped on the Thai side of the Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge. (Visual China/Photo)
On April 11, after the Burmese National Unity Government (OFA) coalition forces launched a fierce offensive on the border town of Myawaddy, the Myanmar National Unity Government (OFA) announced that it had taken control of Myawaddy on April 11 after the last Myanmar military facility was seized and some 200 Burmese troops retreated to a bridge to Thailand.
Kyaw Zuo, a spokesman for the "Myanmar National Unity Government", said that the Karen National Union (KNU) forces in Kayin State in eastern Myanmar occupied the remaining military base in Myawaddy on the 11th. "This is a key victory for us because Myawaddy is an important border town for the junta and one of the main sources of income for border trade," he added. ”
Since the military junta overthrew the democratically elected government in 2021, Myanmar has been plagued by conflict. After several days of fierce fighting with the Burmese army, the "Myanmar National Unity Government" group captured seven military camps and a government command center in Myawaddy on the 7th, and seized a large number of weapons left behind by the army's retreat, and hundreds of soldiers surrendered.
Immigration officials in Ta province, where the Thai town of Mae Sot is located, said Mae Sot has been open to free movement for Myanmar civilians, with about 2,000 people entering Mae Sot from Myawaddy every day and about 4,000 people entering Thailand every day in the last three days.
Thailand's foreign minister said Thailand remains neutral to all parties to the ongoing civil war in Myanmar and has the capacity to host about 100,000 Burmese refugees.
▶ South Korea's drowning toddler died after being rejected by 11 hospitals, and public opinion was in an uproar
A few days ago, a 2-year-old girl in Chungcheongbuk-do, South Korea, drowned and was rejected by many hospitals, and finally passed away.
The toddler fell into a one-metre-deep ditch on March 30 and was in cardiac arrest when he was rescued by his father. The girl's heartbeat returned to normal after she was rushed to a local hospital for treatment. The hospital decided that it was necessary to transfer the patient to a major hospital for emergency surgery, so it requested the transfer to 11 hospitals in Chungcheongbuk-do, Chungcheongnam-do, and the metropolitan area. However, these hospitals have refused to accept seriously ill children on the grounds of "insufficient manpower" and "insufficient beds". Soon after, the girl suffered another cardiac arrest and was pronounced dead.
Recently, the collective resignation of the Korean medical community is still ongoing, and the resulting patient deaths have attracted the attention of Korean media. As soon as these details were revealed, they caused an uproar in public opinion.
South Korea's "NEWSIS" news network reported on the 9th that South Korean Prime Minister Han Deok-so said on the same day about the incident, "This incident has starkly demonstrated the collapse of the necessary medical and local medical systems faced by the Republic of Korea" and "In order to avoid the recurrence of such a tragedy, we are embarking on medical reform."
At the time of the 22nd National Assembly election in South Korea, the discussion of the conflict between medical and political affairs has become one of the most concerned topics. South Korea's MBN TV said that the election may become an "inflection point" in the confrontation between the government and the medical community, and the election results will affect the direction of medical reform.
▶ Thailand plans to take the lead in Southeast Asia's "Schengen sign"
Performers ride bicycles to welcome Songkran in Bangkok, Thailand, April 11, 2024. (Visual China/Photo)
Thailand, which has recently made frequent moves to boost tourism, is promoting a joint visa program for six Southeast Asian countries similar to the European Schengen visa.
Thai Prime Minister Saitha Thazin has upgraded Thailand from a regional tourism hub to an aviation and logistics hub, and in recent months Saitha has discussed with Malaysian, Vietnamese, Cambodian, Laotian and Myanmar parties the idea of a Schengen visa. The core role of the Southeast Asian version of the Schengen visa will be to allow the holder to travel freely in the six countries.
The biggest benefit of the introduction of the joint single visa is that tourists are likely to spend more time in the country and spend more. The former president of the Thai Hotel Association is optimistic that a common visa may make it easier for some long-term travelers to decide to visit. She also suggested extending the visa to 90 days instead of the usual 30 days.
However, considering that the majority of the countries that make up the European Schengen visa are from the European Union, it is possible to agree on a uniform entry and short-stay policy between countries. Therefore, for Thailand, if it wants to replicate this system in Southeast Asia, it will also face the trouble of localization.
Sei-kun
▶ The Prime Minister of the Republic of Korea and a number of other senior government officials resigned at the same time
On April 11, 2024 local time, in Seoul, South Korea, South Korean Prime Minister Han Deok-so attended the State Council and spoke on the results of the parliamentary election. (Visual China/Photo)
On April 11, 2024 local time, Lee Kwan-sop, director of the Secretariat of the President of South Korea, informed at a press conference that regarding the results of the crushing defeat of South Korea's ruling National Power Party in the 22nd National Assembly election, President Yoon Suk-yeol said, "I will humbly accept the will of the people reflected in the election of members of the National Assembly, and will do my best to promote policy reform, stabilize the economy and people's livelihood." Lee also said that officials at and above the rank of chief secretary of the presidential office, including himself and Sung Tae-yeon, director of the presidential policy office, asked Yoon Suk-yeol to resign on the same day and was responsible for the results of the National Assembly election. In addition, Prime Minister Han Deok-so also submitted his resignation to the president on the same day.
Han Dong-hyun, chairman of the Extraordinary Countermeasures Committee of the ruling party of South Korea's ruling party, delivered a speech on the morning of the 11th, in response to the disastrous defeat of the ruling party in the just-concluded general election of the new South Korean National Assembly, Han Dongxun said that he would take all the responsibility for the defeat, deeply apologize and reflect, and announced his resignation from the post of chairman of the Extraordinary Countermeasures Committee. Han congratulated the elected members of the National Assembly and said he hoped to continue to promote political reform.
In the 22nd National Assembly election held on 10 July, the Democratic Party of Korea, the largest opposition party in South Korea, and its satellite parties won a landslide victory with a total of 175 seats, while the ruling People's Power Party and its satellite parties won a total of 108 seats.
▶ Six European countries signed the North Sea Security Convention to ensure the safety of relevant facilities
On the evening of April 8, 2024, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, the United Kingdom, Denmark and Norway signed the new North Sea Security Convention. Under the convention, the six countries will invest significant funds and cooperate to ensure the security of telecommunications and power cables, as well as gas and oil facilities in the North Sea.
The six-nation joint news report said that this will be carried out in close cooperation with NATO and the European Union. In addition, Belgium will invest 1 million euros in the construction of a secure communication platform to help countries cooperate. The platform, named "North Seal", will allow six countries to exchange information about suspicious events that could affect the security of infrastructure in the North Sea, such as gas pipelines.
Southern Weekly reporter Wang Jialin
Editor-in-charge: Yao Yijiang