At the time of China's high-level return visit to Paris, the French side sent two signals on how to handle relations with China. On the one hand, the French side attaches great importance to this visit. Before the Chinese arrived, the streets of Paris were already filled with Chinese flags.
In addition, as soon as the Chinese special plane arrived at Paris-Orly Airport, French Prime Minister Attar and other high-ranking government representatives greeted them at the gangway, and took the initiative to greet them with "Hello!" in Chinese, laying out the red carpet and setting up salutes on the spot. During this visit, Macron also specially arranged his "hometown" Pyrenees.
This place is to the President of France what Camp David is to the President of the United States. By arranging a meeting here, France's intention to woo China is quite obvious. But on the other hand, Macron also stuffed an "uninvited guest" European Commission President von der Leyen during the trip, and China, France and Europe will hold a trilateral meeting. The French side said that the arrangement was to echo the same tripartite talks during Macron's visit to China last year.
Macron, von der Leyen
But anyone with a discerning eye can see that von der Leyen is a "decoration" arranged by Macron in order to prevent being labeled as "through China", and in essence, he still wants to reflect France's commitment to European autonomy and wants to "end water" between China and the United States. France's approach is reflected not only in the schedule, but also in the agenda.
Macron made a high-profile statement beforehand, saying that Europe will not "alienate China", but will act as a "balancing force" to ensure China's continued participation in global issues. Macron's statement is obviously aimed at the United States and the United Kingdom.
The two countries have recently tried to tie China and Russia together by hyping up the Ukraine issue, thereby pushing China into diplomatic isolation. Macron's remarks, although there is a suspicion of "raising the price" for Europe, objectively speaking, it does disrupt the calculations of the United States and Britain.
Medium method
Macron's approach actually reflects the ambivalence of the old developed countries in Europe in the face of China. These countries have a demand for China, but they can't let go of the "teacher" shelf, so when dealing with China, their first reaction is often to make cards in vain, wanting to pinch some bargaining chips in their hands to negotiate with China.
Truth be told, the focus of this Sino-French meeting may be more on political issues, especially on Ukraine. At present, Switzerland has extended an invitation to China to attend the Ukraine Peace Summit. If nothing else, May to July this year should be the window for Russia to launch a major counteroffensive against Ukraine.
This is determined by the geographical conditions of Wudong, where large swampy wetlands are only available for large-scale dispatch of armored clusters when they are frozen in winter and "air-dried" in summer. Therefore, observing the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, we can find that although the two sides have fought for several years, several "big wars" are basically concentrated at the turn of spring and summer and the turn of autumn and winter every year.
Russian army
Therefore, this Sino-French interaction can be said to be stuck in the window period of Russia's action against Ukraine. France's calculation may be to persuade China to put pressure on Russia to reduce the intensity of this round of the Russian army's "summer counteroffensive", which has been repeatedly hyped up by the US media. Macron has also spoken more than once before, saying that he hopes for a "ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine during the Paris Olympics.
This is equivalent to letting Russia give up half a month to Ukraine to reorganize troops during the prime time of the counteroffensive. As for such France, China can actually respond with only one move, that is, to respond to all changes with the same.
Whether it is Russia, Ukraine or other issues, time is on China's side, and France and even Europe cannot afford to delay it than China. Needless to say, the Russia-Ukraine issue is not much to say. Although the United States has passed an aid package of more than 60 billion yuan to Ukraine, it has only less than 14 billion yuan that is really used to subsidize Zelensky's arms purchase.
Macron
And considering the US arms dealer's offer of $1,280 for a coffee cup and $90,000 for a pack of bushing parts, the actual purchasing power of this 14 billion is probably quite worrying. The Europeans themselves admit that this money can help Ukraine hold out for a month or two at most without a rout, but to help the Ukrainian army win the Russian army on the battlefield is basically a pipe dream.
If Trump enters the White House again in November this year, the conflict in Ukraine will completely become a quagmire that will bring down Europe. Therefore, this group of Western European countries represented by France are desperate to find a step for themselves, and the only one who can hand over the steps is China.
Economically, the European Central Bank (ECB) has also been in a tug-of-war with the US Federal Reserve recently. According to Bloomberg, at the spring global finance ministers' meeting at the end of April, the United States originally threw out the issue of "overcapacity" and wanted to draw Europe to besiege China, but it backfired. Europe has been annoyed by the Fed's continued hawkishness and decision to "postpone" interest rate cuts, and has collectively demanded a more "cautious" fiscal policy in the United States.
The United States and Europe
At the moment, the ECB and the Fed are engaged in a tug-of-war over who will cut interest rates first. The logic is simply that the party that cuts interest rates first will inevitably suffer the consequences of currency depreciation and asset shrinkage, while in contrast, the currency that cuts interest rates later can take advantage of the former's time to enter the market to harvest assets and achieve a "soft landing".
In April this year, the Fed was ambiguous about raising interest rates. The European Central Bank said that it would not consider cutting interest rates until June at the earliest, obviously under the pretense of waiting for the United States to cut interest rates and then following the rate cut. Now that the Fed is suddenly hawkish, it is equivalent to stepping on the euro, which was originally intended to "soft land", as a life-saving cushion, and Europe is absolutely unwilling.
At this time, only by maintaining large-scale economic and trade cooperation with China and avoiding a trade war between China and Europe can Europe stabilize the prospects of the European economy, raise market expectations, and avoid being harvested by the Federal Reserve. After all, American politicians can open their eyes and tell nonsense, but capitalists are very honest.
China-Europe trains
Tesla is in a debt crisis, and the first thing Musk did was to postpone his visit to India, and then urgently went to Beijing to talk about cooperation. Wall Street traders know very well that only cooperation with China is the best way to raise stock prices. So to sum up, whether it is political or economic issues, China has taken the absolute initiative in front of Europe.
China has plenty of time to adapt to the changes and wait for Europe to adjust to its imbalanced mentality. Macron's active "relationship" with China can be regarded as a good start for China-EU exchanges. It is time for Europe to recognize the reality and make deals with China by practical sincerity rather than "coercion".
Sixty years ago, Charles de Gaulle made the historic decision to establish diplomatic relations between China and France with extraordinary political foresight. Now, Macron wants to lead Europe to independence and independence from US control. China's attitude has always been consistent, always regarding Europe as an independent pole in a multipolar world, and supporting the EU's adherence to strategic autonomy. This high-level visit to Europe by the Chinese side is a precious opportunity, and we hope that France will seize it.
#MCN首发激励计划#