This week (April 8 to April 14) focuses on China's inflation, trade, and financial data for March. In addition, the US CPI and PPI for March will be announced, and the central banks of Europe, Canada and New Zealand will also announce their interest rate decisions.
Monday, April 8
Germany's seasonally adjusted import and export data for February
Germany's industrial production in February
Tuesday, April 9
U.S. NFIB Small and Medium Business Optimism Index for March
Wednesday, April 10
US CPI for March
U.S. EIA Gasoline, Refined Oil, Crude Oil Inventories Change for the Week of April 5 (10,000 barrels)
Japan's domestic business goods price index for March
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision
The Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision
Thursday, April 11
China's March CPI, PPI
U.S. Government Budget for March (US$ 100 million)
US PPI for March
The European Central Bank (ECB) announces its interest rate decision
Friday, April 12
China's import and export trade account in March
U.S. import price index for March
Japan's final industrial production in February
UK GDP for February
Germany's final CPI for March
undetermined
China's M0/M1/M2 money supply in March was YoY
China's Social Financing Scale Increase in March (RMB 100 million)
China's new renminbi loans in March (RMB bn)
This week, nearly 60 billion yuan of market value restricted shares were lifted
➤Wind data shows that 65 stocks will face the lifting of restricted shares in the five trading days (April 8 to April 12) this week, with a total of 3.637 billion shares. According to the closing price on April 3, the total market value of the lifting of the ban was 59.684 billion yuan. Among them, the top three market capitalizations are: Yuntian Lifei-U (6.223 billion yuan), Nanxin Technology (5.903 billion yuan), and Hengshuai (4.672 billion yuan).
Specifically, on April 8, Yuntian Lifei-U and Nanxin Technology will lift the ban on 178 million shares and 195 million shares respectively, both of which are restricted shares of the original shareholders and strategic placement shares of the initial offering, and on April 12, Hengshuai shares will lift the ban of 60 million shares, which are the restricted shares of the original shareholders of the first time.
The central bank has set up a re-loan for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, with a quota of 500 billion yuan and an interest rate of 1.75%
On April 7, according to the official website of the People's Bank of China, the People's Bank of China set up a re-loan for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation to encourage and guide financial institutions to increase financial support for small and medium-sized scientific and technological enterprises, technological transformation and equipment renewal projects in key areas. The reloan amount for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation is 500 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.75% and a term of 1 year, which can be extended twice and each time for a period of 1 year. The recipients include 21 financial institutions, including China Development Bank, policy banks, state-owned commercial banks, Postal Savings Bank of China, and joint-stock commercial banks. The establishment of re-loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation will help guide financial institutions to provide credit support to technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises in the start-up and growth stages, as well as digital, intelligent, high-end and green technological transformation and equipment renewal projects in key areas under the premise of independent decision-making and risk-bearing.
Foreign exchange reserves stood at the $3.2 trillion mark for the fourth consecutive month
According to the 21st Century Business Herald, data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on April 7 showed that as of the end of March 2024, the scale of the mainland's foreign exchange reserves was US$3,245.7 billion, an increase of US$19.8 billion, or 0.62%, from the end of February. It is worth noting that this is the fourth consecutive month that the mainland's foreign exchange reserves have stood at the $3.2 trillion mark, while the foreign exchange reserves will stabilize at more than $3.1 trillion for the whole year in 2023. On the same day, the central bank released data showing that China's gold reserves increased for the 17th consecutive month, with 72.74 million ounces (2,262.47 tons) at the end of March, an increase of 160,000 ounces (4.98 tons) from the previous month, and 72.58 million ounces (2,257.49 tons) at the end of February. Notably, this is the smallest increase in central bank holdings of gold reserves in 17 months.
The spot price of gold broke through $2,300 per ounce
According to the 21st Century Business Herald, the price of gold cannot keep up with the rise of gold spots. Overnight, gold quickly broke through $2,300 per ounce and surged as high as $2,330.13 per ounce, and finally ended the day at the second highest of $2,329.44 per ounce. "We raise our 0-3 month price targets for gold and silver by 9% and 16% to $2,400 and $28 respectively, raise the upper limit of our 6-12 month bullish scenario targets for gold and silver to $3,000 and $32 respectively, and in the bullish scenario, we believe that the gold market will reach an average price of close to $2,500 and $30 for silver in the second half of the year. The probability of an average price of ounces increases. ”
The U.S.-China Business Working Group held its first vice-ministerial meeting
According to CCTV, at the invitation of the United States, Wang Shouwen, international trade negotiator and vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce, visited the United States from April 2 to 5 and co-chaired the first vice ministerial-level meeting of the China-US business and trade working group with U.S. Deputy Secretary of Commerce Lago. Focusing on the implementation of the important consensus reached at the San Francisco meeting between the two heads of state and the recent phone call, the two sides conducted objective, rational, professional and pragmatic communication on commercial and trade policy issues of concern to each other and specific commercial issues raised by the business circles of the two countries.
Ministry of Culture and Tourism: 119 million domestic tourists traveled during the Qingming holiday
According to the release of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the 2024 Qingming Festival holiday, the national cultural and tourism market will be safe, stable and orderly. According to the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, there were 119 million domestic tourism trips during the three-day holiday, an increase of 11.5% compared with the same period in 2019 on a comparable basis; Domestic tourists spent RMB53.95 billion, up 12.7% from the same period in 2019.
The Agricultural Development Bank responded to the "video of primary school students making sentences and wanting to be presidents": their parents' positions meet regulatory requirements
According to the Financial Times, in response to the recent video of primary school students filling in words and sentences, the spokesperson of the Anhui branch of the Agricultural Development Bank of China was interviewed by reporters and responded to everyone's concerns. He said that the Agricultural Development Bank of China has set up four levels of institutions, including the head office, provincial branches, city branches and county branches. The position of the person in charge of the operation of the fourth-level bank is called the president, and the number of employees in the county branch is generally about 15. After investigation, the student in the video is indeed the child of the bank's employee, his father is the president of a county branch, his mother is the deputy head of a branch in a city, the child's grandfather and grandfather used to be employees of the Agricultural Development Bank, and they have been retired for many years, and their grandfather is an ordinary employee of the branch, and his grandfather has served as the president of another county branch. The spokesperson said that the current job position of the child's parents meets the regulatory requirements and the provisions of the Agricultural Development Bank's job recusal system, so they are working in a different place.
Central Bank: It is necessary to intensify the implementation of the monetary policy that has been introduced to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity
According to the website of the central bank, the Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank held a regular meeting in the first quarter of 2024. The meeting held that it is necessary to intensify the implementation of the monetary policy that has been introduced. Maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, guide the reasonable growth and balanced distribution of credit, and keep the scale of social financing and money supply in line with the expected targets of economic growth and price levels. Promote a moderate recovery in prices and keep prices at a reasonable level. We will improve the formation and transmission mechanism of market-oriented interest rates, enrich the monetary policy toolbox, give full play to the guiding role of the central bank's policy interest rates, release the effectiveness of the reform of the loan market prime interest rate and the market-oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates, and promote the steady decline of corporate financing and household credit costs. At the same time, in the process of economic recovery, it is also necessary to pay attention to the changes in long-term yields. Smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism and improve the efficiency of capital use. Deepen the market-oriented reform of the exchange rate, guide enterprises and financial institutions to adhere to the concept of "risk neutrality", implement comprehensive policies, correct deviations, stabilize expectations, resolutely correct pro-cyclical behaviors, resolutely prevent the risk of exchange rate overshoot, prevent the formation of unilateral consensus expectations and self-reinforcement, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
The maximum proportion of loans for self-use of traditional power vehicles and self-use new energy vehicles shall be determined by financial institutions
According to the website of the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration, recently, the central bank and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Adjusting the Relevant Policies of Auto Loans", clarifying that financial institutions shall independently determine the maximum proportion of loans for self-use traditional power vehicles and self-use new energy vehicles according to the borrower's credit status and repayment ability under the premise of legal compliance and controllable risks. The maximum disbursement ratio of loans for self-use of traditional powered vehicles and self-use new energy vehicles shall be determined by financial institutions, the maximum disbursement ratio of loans for commercial traditional powered vehicles shall be 70%, the maximum disbursement ratio of commercial new energy vehicle loans shall be 75%, and the maximum disbursement ratio of second-hand car loans shall be 70%.
The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 303,000 in March, and the Fed lowered its interest rate cut expectations
According to the 21st Century Business Herald, after the strong non-farm payrolls report exceeded almost all analysts' expectations, the Fed's expectations for the first cut in June have been hit again. On April 5, local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 303,000 in March, much higher than the 200,000 predicted by economists, and also higher than the 270,000 in February, the largest increase since May last year. After the release of the non-farm payrolls report, the CME Fed Watch tool showed that the probability of the Fed's first rate cut in June this year has fallen to about 50%, and the market will fully price in the timing of the Fed's first rate cut from July to September, and the probability of two Fed rate cuts in 2024 has risen to about 50%.
Cities at and above the prefecture level have established a coordination mechanism for urban real estate financing
Xinhua News Agency reported on April 4 that the reporter learned from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development on the 3rd that at present, 31 provinces across the country and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps have established a provincial-level real estate financing coordination mechanism, and all cities at and above the prefecture level (excluding municipalities directly under the central government) have established an urban real estate financing coordination mechanism.
This week (April 8 to April 14), there is no new subscription for A-shares.
Haitong Securities
In the second quarter, A-shares may fluctuate and gain momentum, and white horse stocks may become the main line in the medium term.
Bullish on the sector:
1) The sustainability of the growth of white horses such as technology manufacturing and medicine may be better;
2) There may be a chance for a phased rebound in liquor and new energy in the Baima plate
Shenwan Hongyuan
The short-term market remains active, and structural opportunities in the short, medium and short term are all performing in the short term.
Bullish on the sector:
1) Consumption of high dividends (home appliances, food and dairy products, clothing and home textiles);
2) liquor with expected dividend ratio;
3) supply of power batteries with the earliest contraction expectations;
Huafu Securities
With the March PMI beating expectations, the market is starting to realize that the slope of the economic recovery has increased. Although the economy has not yet fully recovered, some fields and some industries have shown the characteristics of "light recovery", which deserves the attention of investors.
Bullish on the sector:
1) export industry chain;
2) Non-ferrous metals and basic chemical industry;
3) Consumer side: light industry, textile and clothing, travel chain, etc.
Caitong Securities
Market expectations are reversing, and the macro allocation is moving from "stable + TMT" in the recession period to "cycle + consumption" in the early stage of recovery.
Bullish on the sector:
1) Supply crunch: pigs/cinemas, etc.;
2) Post-epidemic recovery of the travel chain: catering/hotel (and supply tightening)/tourism/gaming;
3) Low-cost mass consumption: sportswear/snacks/retail;
4) Other demand repair: automobiles/home appliances (consumption renewal subsidies), liquor.
(Disclaimer: The content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.) Investors act accordingly at their own risk)
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