Today's discussion is about two main areas.
One is the latest monthly shareholding report, and the other is some topics related to data.
Warren Buffett's latest holdings and investment philosophy
Recently, some large investment firms and private equity firms in the United States are successively announcing their holdings in the first quarter. One of the most notable is Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway.
Since last year, Warren Buffett has bought shares in a mysterious company, and as a result, he has applied for special permission from the SEC to disclose his holdings in stages.
This is because every investment decision of Warren Buffett will attract the attention of global investors, especially the following trend of retail investors may cause the stock price to deviate from its actual value, which is contrary to the value investment principles he pursues.
At this year's shareholder meeting, Warren Buffett has revealed that he has bought a stock. As a result, everyone is speculating about which stock he bought.
The speculation was focused on financial stocks, with some speculating whether he had bought bank stocks and others whether he had bought insurance stocks. The reason for this speculation is that Warren Buffett has always been very cautious in investing in stocks, and once there is any instability in the market, he will choose to sell stocks.
For example, he recently began to reduce his holdings in Apple Inc. Berkshire-Hathaway, meanwhile, now has $180 billion in cash on hand, the largest amount of cash in history.
At present, everyone is paying close attention to which financial stock Buffett has his eye on. Financials currently have relatively low price-to-earnings ratios in the U.S. stock market and pay annual dividends.
On May 15, Warren Buffett announced trading results showing that he had bought shares in a company called Chubb Insurance. This insurance company may be relatively new to domestic investors.
Buffett has now invested $6.7 billion, ranking ninth among Berkshire Hathaway's holdings, and it can be said that this is one of Buffett's core holdings.
It is worth mentioning that the insurance company's stock has risen by about 12% so far this year. After the announcement, the stock rose 6% in after-hours trading as Buffett's holdings were not announced until the U.S. deal was completed, which is almost half of the increase from January to now in less than half a year.
Prior to that, the stock wasn't cheap, trading around $128 before its 6% after-hours trading gain. And on May 15, the stock actually fell in a trade that did not disclose Buffett's holdings.
Everyone needs to understand that in the United States, if the news is leaked in advance and the stock price fluctuates abnormally, the CSRC will intervene in the investigation.
Warren Buffett's latest investment story is that he owns insurance stocks. In addition to Warren Buffett, many U.S. investment banks and private equity firms have also announced their latest holdings.
For example, large institutions such as Bridgewater Fund and Citibank are still particularly interested in the so-called "tech seven" in the United States, some increase their holdings and some reduce their holdings. But regardless, a lot of money is still being poured into tech stocks.
Driven by these large funds, on May 15, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the three major US stock indexes, hit new all-time highs again, and the so-called record highs continued to be renewed.
Because I mentioned the "five poor and six absolutes" before, I recommend that in the past two months, focus on observation and do not actively operate. Some investors may wonder if they are missing out on a good market because of this.
I think it can be answered by a famous quote from the press: there is a picture and there is the truth. Here, I will adapt this sentence a little and call it "there is data and truth".
Market performance and investment analysis of cross-border ETFs
Next, I will discuss a set of data related to cross-border ETFs, which are based on cross-border ETFs that can be purchased in RMB on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges in China.
The ups and downs I mentioned are all calculated from January 2 this year, and we ignore the historical data and only look at the performance of the three major US stock indexes this year with more than five months of statistics.
As of the close of trading at noon on May 16, the data on cross-border ETFs available for purchase in Shanghai and Shenzhen denominated in RMB are as follows: the S&P 500 index performed the best, rising 15.7%; The Nasdaq followed with an 11.7% gain; The Dow Jones was a relatively weak performer, rising just 3.53%.
Note that the Dow Jones was not purchased on January 2 and was launched relatively late. Therefore, the above data is based on the closing point at noon on May 16.
While the three major U.S. stock indexes continue to hit new all-time highs, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq refreshed their all-time highs on May 15.
I emphasize that "there is truth in the data", because when I hear that the stock market continues to hit new highs, the profits that actually fall into the hands of individuals will vary depending on the time of investment.
Let me give you an example, I myself bought Class B shares of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway after checking on March 5. Class A shares are unrealistic for us because it now costs more than $600,000 to buy one share.
I bought Berkshire from March 5th to May 15th, holding it for less than three months, what is the overall return?
Despite Berkshire's growth and Warren Buffett's shareholder meeting this year attracting global attention, my overall earnings are unfortunately only 2.28% in two months, which can be said to be very meager.
Therefore, I think equity investment still needs to be patient, especially for cross-border ETF investment, which will take a long time to get the returns we expect.
I looked at the performance of cross-border ETFs that can be purchased in renminbi on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets on the mainland, and found that cross-border ETFs in the Hong Kong market are particularly outperforming.
At present, there are three main types of cross-border ETFs related to the Hong Kong stock market that can be purchased in RMB, namely Hong Kong Internet ETF, H-share ETF and Hang Seng Technology ETF.
So far this year, Hong Kong-listed internet ETFs have performed the best, rising 29.6%, while H-share ETFs have risen 20.3%, while Hang Seng Technology ETFs have performed slightly worse with 8.6%.
If we compare these figures with the gains of the three major US stock indexes, we can see that the Hang Seng Tech ETF has outperformed the US stock indexes.
Despite the good performance of cross-border ETFs in the Hong Kong stock market, this performance did not start on January 2, in fact, the Hong Kong stock market showed a downward trend for some time after January 2, and it was only in the last two or three months that it began to rise rapidly.
When I observe cross-border ETFs, I usually choose products with more stable market performance for investment. Since I am not very familiar with the Hong Kong market, I don't pay more attention to it, which may become a blind spot for my investment.
Reading Warren Buffett's latest remarks at the shareholder meeting, I realized that I may have overlooked some important investment principles. Some investors asked Buffett if he cared about investment opportunities in other markets besides the U.S. stock market.
Warren Buffett's answer is that he won't invest in markets he is not familiar with. He also made the analogy that investing in an unfamiliar market is like playing on an unfamiliar golf course, which means that among the many markets and stocks that can be invested, one should learn to let go of those that you are not familiar with.
Starting from this issue, I will gradually start to pay attention to the situation of the Hong Kong stock market. Let's see if there's a good time to get involved in the Hang Seng TECH Index and the Hong Kong Internet ETF.
The gains of these two ETFs are very different, and the key is the performance of new energy vehicle stocks. Since the top two holdings of Hong Kong Internet ETF are Alibaba and Tencent, Tencent's performance has been very outstanding in the past month and a half, and its share price has approached 400 Hong Kong dollars.
Although the Hang Seng Technology Index fluctuated greatly, the overall increase was less than 8% and less than 9%, which was affected by many new energy vehicle stocks. This area is still of concern and needs to be carefully analyzed.
Similarly, the same is true for H shares, as they are held in different ways. With this data in hand, let's take a look at the performance of some of the most popular cross-border ETFs available for trading on our Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges so far this year.
For example, the European market-related UK ETF rose by 7.2%, the German ETF by 11.1% and the French ETF by 9.7%. Overall, the performance is not bad, but I believe that for most of us retail investors, this is still a certain distance from their expectations, because everyone feels that in less than half a year, the increase is only about 10%, or even less.
There is a general feeling that it is not enjoyable, especially for some Japanese stocks. In fact, after deducting the impact of exchange rates, the return of these Japanese stocks this year is not too outstanding, only 8.9%.
Looking at the rest of the performance, the US S&P Consumer ETF rose by 6.7%, while the US Consumer ETF rose even more by 0.17%.
The overseas technology ETF, which mainly invests in the "Wood Sister" Ark Fund, has lost money since the beginning of this year, falling by 3.2%.
There is also a Southeast Asian technology ETF that has been launched for less than half a year, which has risen by only 1.1%. The Indian ETF fared slightly better, rising 7.03%, while the Vietnam ETF gained 4.74%.
Having said so much about the performance of cross-border ETFs, I hope you can have a clear data map in your heart. The best performer this year has been the mainland's Hong Kong market, which has seen the vast majority of year-to-date gains of more than double digits, or even less than 10%, despite new highs in mature markets.
Therefore, investing in cross-border ETFs once again reminds you to be patient and take a long-term view.
I have looked up some of the major indices and sub-indices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges in China, and I would like to share them with you.
This year, the SSE 50 is up 6.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index is up 0.9%, the CSI 300 is up 6.08%, the CSI Index is up 0.29%, the BSE 50 is down 26.8%, the ChiNext is down 2.9%, and the STAR 50 is down 12.1%.
With this data, we can basically understand the situation of the global stock market this year, including the performance of major stock markets and mainland capital markets, as well as the state of the mainland Hong Kong stock market. In this way, we can build a graph of data through which we can understand the real situation of the capital market this year.
Therefore, when the news media talks about new highs and surges in the stock market, we need to revert to a point in time to see at what stage the stock market has had what effect, and how much it has risen or fallen.
At the same time, we also need to consider when we entered the market. Through these comparisons, we can observe the capital market more comprehensively, and the capital market itself has time and node differences.
Author: Li Guangyi
Editor: Zhang Tianyi
Producer: Wang Junji
This article is the exclusive content of the WeChat public account of "CBN Broadcasting", please contact the background for authorization before reprinting. The individual stocks involved in this article are for reference only, and are not recommended for trading and are not responsible for personal income.