The Shanghai Composite Index defended 3,000 points again! The low-altitude economic sector is bright, how to go in the second quarter?

The battle for 3,000 points in the Shanghai Index has started again!

On the morning of March 28, the middle of summer opened slightly lower,

After 10 o'clock, it began to attack upwards at 3,000 points and continued to rise, and the Shenzhen Component Index performed stronger. By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 1.09% at 3,025.89 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index was up 2.10% at 9,416.0

7 points, the GEM index rose 1.88% to 1823.45 points.

Overall, more than 5,000 stocks rose in the whole market. The half-day turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 562.9 billion yuan, an increase from the previous trading day. Northbound funds bought nearly 3 billion yuan in half a day.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, told the "V View Financial Report" (WeChat ID: VG-View) that the Shanghai Composite Index has recently fallen below the 3,000-point integer mark again, which has had a certain impact on investor confidence. 3,000 points are lost and lost, and losses are regained, indicating that the market has now entered a stage of repeated shocks after recovering from the bottom.

The low-altitude economic sector is strong

The low-altitude economic sector is a hot spot for thematic investment in the market in the near future.

March 28,

The Wind low-altitude economic index rose nearly 7%, with a turnover of 20 billion yuan.

Related stocks rose across the board, Jianxin shares 20% limit, Jindun shares, Rice Information, Zongheng shares, Guanglian Airlines, Andawell, Shangluo Electronics, etc. rose more than 10%, Shanggong Shenbei, CITIC Haizhi, Lihang Technology, Zongshen Power and other stocks have risen to the limit.

The low-altitude economy is an emerging economy that takes low-altitude aircraft as the carrier and extends from radiation. In 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference will first mention the "low-altitude economy" and include it in the ranks of strategic emerging industries. During the two sessions this year, the "low-altitude economy" was written into the government work report for the first time, and will be built as an emerging industry and future industry to become a new growth engine for the mainland's economic development.

Feng Sheng, chief analyst of advanced industry research at Zhongtai Securities, pointed out that the low-altitude economic industry has the characteristics of innovation, high quality and large scale, which is in line with the development direction of the country's new quality productivity. Electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL) are expected to become the main aircraft in low-altitude scenarios due to their advantages such as low requirements for take-off scenarios, greening, low power consumption, and low noise.

“

The double inflection point of policy and technology is superimposed, and the low-altitude economy is expected to usher in a period of industrial explosion. Feng Sheng said that the mainland has the necessity of developing a low-altitude economy. As an important starting point for new quality productivity, eVTOL is expected to help the mainland civil aviation aircraft manufacturing industry to "overtake in corners", and perfectly replicate the successful model of China's new energy vehicle industry chain by virtue of the deep advantages of the mainland's lithium battery industry chain.

Zhou Tianle, chief analyst of Guotai Junan's small and medium-sized caps, believes that the low-altitude economy and AI have a high degree of similarity, both are in the early stage of industrial development and will be implemented in the long term, and the follow-up investment rhythm will be relatively similar. Referring to the AI theme market,

The low-altitude economy will be sensitive to catalytic information, and the introduction of favorable local policies and the progress of new products will continue to catalyze the theme of low-altitude economy.

Drawing on the experience of AI-themed hype, Zhou Tianle said that since it takes a long time to realize the performance, the market will look for certainty along the low-altitude economic industry chain. Recommended subdivision topics: 1) The difficulty and speed of the software system are better than the hardware, especially the construction of air networking such as communication, navigation and monitoring will be the first to land. 2) Carbon fiber composites, carbon fiber composites are the key materials for eVTOL to achieve lightweight, and will gradually replace the plastics used in traditional drones. 3) Electric drive and other key components, the current low-altitude aircraft industry chain is still in the research and development stage, and manufacturers who can take the lead in completing the research and development of key components and obtaining regulatory certification will fully benefit.

In addition to the low-altitude economic sector, on the disk, consumer electronics concept stocks collectively rebounded, Chaoyang Technology, Zhongjing Electronics, and Liding Optoelectronics. Robot concept stocks rose, and Southern Seiko, Rifa Seiki, Eston and other daily limits. Computing power concept stocks rose, Inspur Information rose by the limit, and Aofei Data rose by more than 10%.

The banking sector adjusted, and only the bank index fell in the Wind theme industry, down 1%, and Everbright Bank fell more than 7%.

Structural market volatility?

The first quarter is coming to an end, since the beginning of this year, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by nearly 2%, the Shenzhen Component Index has fallen by more than 1%, the ChiNext Index has fallen by more than 3%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 and Kechuang 50% have fallen by more than 21% and nearly 10% respectively.

How is the market expected to perform in the second quarter?

Qu Yiping, head of the total group and chief analyst of Oriental Wealth Securities

In an interview with "V View Financial Report", he said,

After the market rally lasted for two months, the overall momentum decayed.

Qu Yiping said that first of all, the expectation of overseas interest rate cuts has been delayed, the growth rate of US real estate prices has returned to the positive and dragged down the CPI, the possibility of interest rate cuts in June has been repeatedly reduced, the US bond yield continues to be in the range of 4.3%, and the interest rate differential between China and the United States continues to invert close to 200BP, which affects the expectation of foreign investors to buy sharply. In February, the sales price of second-hand residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 6.3% year-on-year, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the previous month, of which Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 5.3%, 6.0%, 7.5% and 6.1% respectively, and the current decline has been close to the downward rate of real estate during the global financial crisis in Q3 in 2008, so the market is looking forward to a stronger policy to alleviate the downward trend of real estate.

"We think

The overall market tone is still more structural in the second quarter, and the core main line is still focused on the TMT technology sector, especially GPT-5 is expected to be launched this year, and the commercialization of the application field will set off the second round of AIGC main rising wave. ”

Qu Yiping said.

For the investment strategy in the second quarter, Zheng Xiaoxia, deputy director and chief economist of Huaan Securities Research Institute, believes that compared with expectations, endogenous growth is not bad, the policy is not weak, and the market supported by profits is gradually approaching.

The second quarter is a turning point for fundamental support, and the market is expected to "move towards the light amid doubts".

In terms of industry allocation, Zheng Xiaoxia said that it is difficult to have a style market supported by the fundamentals of the industrial business cycle in the second quarter, but there may be thematic opportunities catalyzed by events, and it is also expected to become the most active sector and achieve excess returns.

Zheng Xiaoxia also said,

increase the attention to new quality productivity,

New quality productivity means high-quality production efficiency, so it includes equipment renewal, semiconductor equipment, special equipment, environmental protection equipment, industrial machine tools, robots and other fields are worthy of attention.

On the whole, it was held in Shenwan Hongyuan

At the 2024 Capital Market Spring Strategy Conference,

Fu Jingtao, chief analyst of strategy, said recently, "

In 2024, the performance growth of A-shares still needs to be polished.

The first three quarters were generally a volatile market, and the overall stability of the market and the excavation of structural highlights are still highly dependent on policy catalysis. ”

The short-term judgment of "spring restlessness in February, down-to-earth in April, and transition period in March" remains unchanged, and the performance verification period in April is scarce in the direction of continuous improvement, and the market is resting normally

Whole, wait for the policy stimulus elasticity and the new economy industry trend to be clear.

Fu Jing

Tao also mentioned that

High dividends go from defensive to offensive.

During the April verification period, in the case of limited fundamental elasticity of demand, supply, overseas and technological innovation, the sustainable direction of fundamental improvement is relatively scarce, and it is the direction to find opportunities for valuation revaluation from steady-state high dividends and dynamic high dividends.

During the April performance period, the increase in the dividend ratio may usher in a centralized verification period

，

This will reinforce the idea of high dividends, which may be more aggressive.

(The views in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.) )

The cover and guide diagram are from Baotu.com

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157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: 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