滬指又保衛3000點！低空經濟闆塊亮眼，二季度怎麼走？

滬指圍繞3000點的争奪戰，又打響了！

3月28日早間，滬指微幅低開，

10時過後開始上攻站上3000點并持續走高，深成指表現更強。截至午間收盤，滬指漲1.09%報3025.89點；深成指漲2.10%報9416.0

7點；創業闆指漲1.88%報1823.45點。

總體來看，全市場超5000隻個股上漲。滬深兩市半日成交額5629億元，較上個交易日有所放量。北向資金半日淨買入近30億元。

前海開源基金首席經濟學家楊德龍對“V觀财報”（微信号ID：VG-View）表示，近期上證指數再次跌破3000點整數關口，對投資者信心形成了一定的影響。3000點得而複失、失而複得，說明市場現在從底部回升之後進入到反複震蕩階段。

低空經濟闆塊強勢

低空經濟闆塊是近期市場上主題投資的熱點。

3月28日，

Wind低空經濟指數大漲近7%，成交額達200億元。

相關個股全線上揚，建新股份20%漲停，金盾股份、萊斯資訊、縱橫股份、廣聯航空、安達維爾、商絡電子等漲逾10%，上工申貝、中信海直、立航科技、宗申動力等多股紛紛漲停。

低空經濟是以低空飛行器為載體，輻射延伸出的新興經濟。2023年，中央經濟工作會議首提“低空經濟”并将其列入戰略性新興産業行列。今年兩會期間，“低空經濟”首次被寫入政府工作報告，并将作為新興産業和未來産業，打造成為大陸經濟發展新的增長引擎。

中泰證券先進産業研究首席分析師馮勝指出，低空經濟産業具備創新性、高品質、規模大等特征，符合國家提出新質生産力的發展方向。電動垂直起降飛行器（eVTOL）由于其具有對起飛場景要求低、綠色化、低功耗、噪聲小等優勢，有望成為低空場景的主要飛行器。

“

政策與技術雙重拐點疊加，低空經濟有望迎來産業爆發期。”馮勝稱，大陸具備發展低空經濟的必要性。作為新質生産力的重要抓手，eVTOL有望助力大陸民航飛機制造業“彎道超車”，憑借大陸锂電産業鍊深厚優勢，完美複刻中國新能源汽車産業鍊的成功模式。

國泰君安中小盤首席分析師周天樂認為，低空經濟和AI相似度較高，均處于産業發展初期并将在遠期落地，後續投資節奏将比較類似。參考AI主題行情，

低空經濟将對催化資訊敏感，地方利好政策的推出和新産品進展将持續催化低空經濟主題。

借鑒AI主題的炒作經驗，周天樂表示，由于業績兌現需要較長時間，市場将沿着低空經濟産業鍊尋找确定性。推薦細分主題：1）低空經濟管理系統，軟體系統落地的難度和速度都要優于硬體，尤其是通信、導航和監視等空聯網建設将率先落地。2）碳纖維複材，碳纖維複材是eVTOL實作輕量化的關鍵材料，将逐漸取代傳統無人機使用的塑膠。3）電驅等關鍵零部件，目前低空飛行器産業鍊仍處于研發階段，能夠率先完成關鍵零部件研發并獲得監管認證的廠商将充分受益。

除低空經濟闆塊外，盤面上，消費電子概念股集體反彈，朝陽科技、中京電子、力鼎光電漲停。機器人概念股拉升，南方精工、日發精機、埃斯頓等漲停。算力概念股走高，浪潮資訊漲停，奧飛資料漲超10%。

銀行闆塊調整，Wind主題行業中僅銀行指數下挫，跌幅1%，光大銀行跌超7%。

結構性行情？震蕩？

一季度即将告終，今年以來滬指累計漲近2%，深成指累計跌超1%，創業闆指跌超3%，北證50、科創50%分别跌超21%、近10%。

市場在二季度預計将會如何演繹呢？

東方财富證券總量組負責人、首席分析師曲一平

接受“V觀财報”采訪時表示，

市場反彈時長達到兩個月後，整體動能衰減。

曲一平稱，首先是海外降息預期延緩，美國房地産價格增速回正拖累CPI下行，6月份降息可能性一再降低，美債收益率持續在4.3%區間，中美利差繼續倒挂接近200BP影響了外資大幅買入預期。其次國内宏觀經濟修複過程中最大擔憂仍然在房地産，2月份，一線城市二手住宅銷售價格同比下降6.3%，降幅比上月擴大1.4個百分點，其中北京、上海、廣州和深圳分别下降5.3%、6.0%、7.5%和6.1%，目前跌幅已經接近于2008年Q3全球金融危機時地産下行速率，是以接下來市場期待更加強有力的政策落地來緩解地産下行。

“我們認為

總的市場基調在二季度還是偏結構性行情，核心主線仍然聚焦TMT科技闆塊，尤其是GPT-5有望今年面世，應用領域商業化爆發将會掀起AIGC第二輪主升浪。”

曲一平說。

對于二季度投資政策，華安證券研究所副所長、首席經濟學家鄭小霞認為，與預期相比，内生增長不差，政策不弱，有盈利支撐的行情漸行漸近，

二季度是基本面支撐的轉折點，市場有望“在質疑中走向光明”。

行業配置方面，鄭小霞表示，二季度難以出現産業景氣周期基本面支撐下風格行情，但可能會出現事件催化下的主題性機會，也有望成為最活躍的闆塊，并取得超額收益。

鄭小霞還稱，

加大新質生産力關注，

新質生産力意味着高品質的生産效率，是以包括裝置更新、半導體裝置、專用裝置、環保裝置、工業母機、機器人等領域都值得關注。

整體來看，在申萬宏源舉行的

2024年資本市場春季政策會上，

政策首席分析師傅靜濤最新表示，“

2024年A股業績增長仍需磨底，

前三季度總體是震蕩市，市場總體穩定和結構亮點挖掘，仍高度依賴于政策催化。”

短期“2月春季躁動，4月腳踏實地，3月過渡期”的判斷不變，4月業績驗證期，景氣持續改善的方向稀缺，市場正常休

整，等待政策刺激彈性和新經濟産業趨勢明确。

傅靜

濤還提到，

高股息從防禦到進攻。

4月驗證期，在需求、供給、出海和科技創新基本面彈性有限的情況下，基本面改善可持續的方向相對稀缺，從穩态高股息和動态高股息中找估值重估的機會是方向。

4月業績期，分紅比例提升可能迎來集中驗證期

，

這将強化高股息的思潮，高股息的進攻性可能增強。

(文中觀點僅供參考，不構成投資建議，投資有風險，入市需謹慎。)

封面、導語圖來源包圖網

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#fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, 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#2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, 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#259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: 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