沪指又保卫3000点！低空经济板块亮眼，二季度怎么走？

沪指围绕3000点的争夺战，又打响了！

3月28日早间，沪指微幅低开，

10时过后开始上攻站上3000点并持续走高，深成指表现更强。截至午间收盘，沪指涨1.09%报3025.89点；深成指涨2.10%报9416.0

7点；创业板指涨1.88%报1823.45点。

总体来看，全市场超5000只个股上涨。沪深两市半日成交额5629亿元，较上个交易日有所放量。北向资金半日净买入近30亿元。

前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙对“V观财报”（微信号ID：VG-View）表示，近期上证指数再次跌破3000点整数关口，对投资者信心形成了一定的影响。3000点得而复失、失而复得，说明市场现在从底部回升之后进入到反复震荡阶段。

低空经济板块强势

低空经济板块是近期市场上主题投资的热点。

3月28日，

Wind低空经济指数大涨近7%，成交额达200亿元。

相关个股全线上扬，建新股份20%涨停，金盾股份、莱斯信息、纵横股份、广联航空、安达维尔、商络电子等涨逾10%，上工申贝、中信海直、立航科技、宗申动力等多股纷纷涨停。

低空经济是以低空飞行器为载体，辐射延伸出的新兴经济。2023年，中央经济工作会议首提“低空经济”并将其列入战略性新兴产业行列。今年两会期间，“低空经济”首次被写入政府工作报告，并将作为新兴产业和未来产业，打造成为大陆经济发展新的增长引擎。

中泰证券先进产业研究首席分析师冯胜指出，低空经济产业具备创新性、高质量、规模大等特征，符合国家提出新质生产力的发展方向。电动垂直起降飞行器（eVTOL）由于其具有对起飞场景要求低、绿色化、低功耗、噪声小等优势，有望成为低空场景的主要飞行器。

“

政策与技术双重拐点叠加，低空经济有望迎来产业爆发期。”冯胜称，大陆具备发展低空经济的必要性。作为新质生产力的重要抓手，eVTOL有望助力大陆民航飞机制造业“弯道超车”，凭借大陆锂电产业链深厚优势，完美复刻中国新能源汽车产业链的成功模式。

国泰君安中小盘首席分析师周天乐认为，低空经济和AI相似度较高，均处于产业发展初期并将在远期落地，后续投资节奏将比较类似。参考AI主题行情，

低空经济将对催化信息敏感，地方利好政策的推出和新产品进展将持续催化低空经济主题。

借鉴AI主题的炒作经验，周天乐表示，由于业绩兑现需要较长时间，市场将沿着低空经济产业链寻找确定性。推荐细分主题：1）低空经济管理系统，软件系统落地的难度和速度都要优于硬件，尤其是通信、导航和监视等空联网建设将率先落地。2）碳纤维复材，碳纤维复材是eVTOL实现轻量化的关键材料，将逐渐取代传统无人机使用的塑料。3）电驱等关键零部件，目前低空飞行器产业链仍处于研发阶段，能够率先完成关键零部件研发并获得监管认证的厂商将充分受益。

除低空经济板块外，盘面上，消费电子概念股集体反弹，朝阳科技、中京电子、力鼎光电涨停。机器人概念股拉升，南方精工、日发精机、埃斯顿等涨停。算力概念股走高，浪潮信息涨停，奥飞数据涨超10%。

银行板块调整，Wind主题行业中仅银行指数下挫，跌幅1%，光大银行跌超7%。

结构性行情？震荡？

一季度即将告终，今年以来沪指累计涨近2%，深成指累计跌超1%，创业板指跌超3%，北证50、科创50%分别跌超21%、近10%。

市场在二季度预计将会如何演绎呢？

东方财富证券总量组负责人、首席分析师曲一平

接受“V观财报”采访时表示，

市场反弹时长达到两个月后，整体动能衰减。

曲一平称，首先是海外降息预期延缓，美国房地产价格增速回正拖累CPI下行，6月份降息可能性一再降低，美债收益率持续在4.3%区间，中美利差继续倒挂接近200BP影响了外资大幅买入预期。其次国内宏观经济修复过程中最大担忧仍然在房地产，2月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格同比下降6.3%，降幅比上月扩大1.4个百分点，其中北京、上海、广州和深圳分别下降5.3%、6.0%、7.5%和6.1%，目前跌幅已经接近于2008年Q3全球金融危机时地产下行速率，所以接下来市场期待更加强有力的政策落地来缓解地产下行。

“我们认为

总的市场基调在二季度还是偏结构性行情，核心主线仍然聚焦TMT科技板块，尤其是GPT-5有望今年面世，应用领域商业化爆发将会掀起AIGC第二轮主升浪。”

曲一平说。

对于二季度投资策略，华安证券研究所副所长、首席经济学家郑小霞认为，与预期相比，内生增长不差，政策不弱，有盈利支撑的行情渐行渐近，

二季度是基本面支撑的转折点，市场有望“在质疑中走向光明”。

行业配置方面，郑小霞表示，二季度难以出现产业景气周期基本面支撑下风格行情，但可能会出现事件催化下的主题性机会，也有望成为最活跃的板块，并取得超额收益。

郑小霞还称，

加大新质生产力关注，

新质生产力意味着高质量的生产效率，因此包括设备更新、半导体设备、专用设备、环保设备、工业母机、机器人等领域都值得关注。

整体来看，在申万宏源举行的

2024年资本市场春季策略会上，

策略首席分析师傅静涛最新表示，“

2024年A股业绩增长仍需磨底，

前三季度总体是震荡市，市场总体稳定和结构亮点挖掘，仍高度依赖于政策催化。”

短期“2月春季躁动，4月脚踏实地，3月过渡期”的判断不变，4月业绩验证期，景气持续改善的方向稀缺，市场正常休

整，等待政策刺激弹性和新经济产业趋势明确。

傅静

涛还提到，

高股息从防御到进攻。

4月验证期，在需求、供给、出海和科技创新基本面弹性有限的情况下，基本面改善可持续的方向相对稀缺，从稳态高股息和动态高股息中找估值重估的机会是方向。

4月业绩期，分红比例提升可能迎来集中验证期

，

这将强化高股息的思潮，高股息的进攻性可能增强。

(文中观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议，投资有风险，入市需谨慎。)

封面、导语图来源包图网

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#fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, 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#2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, 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#259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: 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