Lin Yifu: Within two or three years, China will definitely become a high-income country, and it is inevitable for enterprises to go overseas

Tencent Financial News On March 27, Lin Yifu, honorary dean of the National School of Development of Peking University, said at the Boao Forum sub-forum entitled "World Economic Outlook" that he believes that China's economic growth rate will reach more than 5% this year and will still be the main driving force for world economic growth.

According to Lin Yifu's analysis, the economies of developed countries have not yet recovered, and their long-term average annual growth rate in the past was 3%. However, according to the International Monetary Fund's forecast, the growth rate of the United States this year is only 2.1%, that of the European Union countries is only 0.9%, and that of Japan is only 0.7%.

Lin Yifu said that China's economic development is very important to the world. "China is the world's largest trading country, the largest exporter, due to the world's economic growth rate is slow (mainly due to the slow growth rate of developed countries), resulting in slow trade growth, developed countries have less import demand, which has the greatest impact on the largest exporter. ”

Lin Yifu said that fortunately, China's policy space is relatively large, and the proportion of government debt in the world is relatively low, and it is necessary to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in the future.

In terms of investment, he believes that there are still many opportunities for investment in the new economy, and there is still room for catching up even in traditional industries.

Regarding the question of "what areas can improve the level of productivity", Lin Yifu concluded:

First, the new economy or the fourth industrial revolution characterized by artificial intelligence and big data, China has a talent advantage in short-term new economic and technological innovation;

Second, if there is a technological breakthrough, China has the advantage of the world's largest market, with low cost and strong competitiveness;

Third, if hardware is needed, China now has the best industrial supporting advantages in the world.

"For example, new energy vehicles, Tesla developed for more than ten years in the early days, with a maximum output of less than 30,000 units, and was on the verge of bankruptcy, and built a factory in China after investing in one year, and produced 480,000 units in the second year, which made Musk and his company's stock the highest valuation in all the auto industry. Lin Yifu gave an example to further elaborate.

Finally, as for enterprises going overseas, he believes that this is an inevitable phenomenon that will occur at a certain stage in the process of economic development.

"If enterprises want to create a 'second spring', they must go to places where wages are low. Lin Yifu said that China is already a middle-income country, reaching GDP13000 US dollars per capita, and China will definitely become a high-income country in two or three years. In this case, labor-intensive industries will inevitably move to places with relatively low wages overseas, and will inevitably go overseas.