Trump's shocking remarks have aroused concern in Europe: Will Taiwan be the next "betrayer"? If the United States abandons Taiwan, how will it affect Sino-US relations? When the two former US presidents faced off, the US media said that China is a "loser."
Trump betrayed NATO allies, causing panic
At the beginning of this year, Trump's campaign road can be described as smooth sailing, the Democrats have failed to prevent him from participating in the election, and even failed to affect Trump's support among the Republican voters.
Among them, Trump's foreign policy has attracted the most attention, especially among NATO allies who suffered from American isolationism during Trump's first term, and they are worried about Trump's aggressive foreign policy again.
Trump himself "lived up to expectations" by making a series of anti-NATO remarks at a campaign event in South Carolina on February 10. He told voters directly that he had been asked during his first term when he spoke to the president of a European NATO power whether the United States would protect NATO countries in the event of a Russian invasion if they were unwilling to pay the money Trump demanded, to which he replied "absolutely not," much to the disbelief of the president of the European NATO power.
Subsequently, Trump further told the president of the European NATO power that if NATO allies are not willing to pay, the United States will not only not protect other NATO countries when Russia invades NATO, but will even encourage Russia to do whatever it wants, so these NATO allies must pay and must pay their own expenses.
As for which European power is the target of this conversation, Trump himself has not disclosed, and the outside world has no way to speculate, and some people even believe that Trump's rhetoric is a fabrication, but Trump's meaning to the outside world through these arguments is very clear.
This is a typical Trump logic, he detached the interests of the United States from the so-called collective interests of the West, and took the United States itself as the starting point for all interests, in his eyes, money is the most important thing, whether it is an ally or an enemy, the interests of the United States must be satisfied, otherwise it will be attacked hard.
NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg issued a statement on the 11th, criticizing Trump's remarks for undermining NATO security, and he warned that any election campaign in the United States should not be used as an excuse to play with the security of the alliance.
EU foreign policy chief Borrell criticized that NATO cannot become a military alliance that "à la carte" and is not a military organization that counts as the US president says.
In a report by the American media CNN, it was also lamented that Trump's inflammatory remarks against NATO now make the whole of Europe shudder, and for many years, Trump considered NATO to be the epitome of everything he despised as an American ally, using American power without giving anything in return.
But in fact, Trump has always ignored a problem, that is, it has not been Europe that has taken the initiative to ask for military protection from NATO, but the United States has voluntarily or even forcibly exerted its own military influence in Europe, and now the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has developed to such a situation, the United States is the most direct operator behind it, Trump wants to withdraw directly and throw the responsibility on the heads of European allies in the name of protection money, which is actually betraying allies.
This isolationist approach will not make the United States great again, but will send a signal to the world that the United States is weak, and when allies lose trust in the United States, the ability of the United States to exert its influence in the world will be greatly reduced, leading to the gradual collapse of the global hegemony system of the United States.
In addition, the chilling effect of betraying European allies will also affect the strategic deployment of the United States in other parts of the world, and nullify the geopolitical deployment of the United States in some hot spots.
Taiwan's value has shrunk or it may be directly abandoned by the United States
On February 12, Hong Kong's China Review News published a commentary article under the headline "Trump's remarks in Europe shocked the world, and Taiwan will also be abandoned", which pointed out that after Trump's remarks about the United States' NATO European allies, some people in Taiwan also felt worried, and many people believed that if Trump returned, the international order may be in chaos, and Taiwan may become the next object to be abandoned.
As early as July last year, Trump was interviewed by the American media and pointed out that Taiwan "stole the American chip business", saying that the United States "should have stopped them a long time ago" and "imposed tariffs on Taiwan", and when asked whether he would "protect Taiwan", Trump avoided answering.
This shows that Trump's thoughts on Taiwan are not as complex as those of the Biden administration, and he does not deny Taiwan's position in the geopolitical game, but he also does not want to turn to strategic clarity like the Biden administration and intervene in the situation in the Taiwan Strait in the name of providing protection.
As a result, many "Taiwan independence" forces on the island of Taiwan will lose their most important protective umbrella, and the strategic plan of the United States operating in the Taiwan Strait for many years will also be completely invalid. The New York Times, a US media outlet, pointed out in its report worrying that if the US security umbrella for its allies in various places for nearly 80 years after the end of World War II was terminated, it would cause serious consequences. The mere hint that the United States can no longer be relied upon is enough to negatively affect alliances, causing perennial allies to turn closer to other countries, and in doing so, the power of "American adversaries" such as China will become even stronger.
Objectively speaking, if Trump can really change the consistent attitude of the United States toward Taiwan and let the "Taiwan independence" elements on the island lose their reliance, it will indeed play a certain role in promoting the peaceful reunification of the two sides of the strait. And Trump himself does have enough reasons to give up the Taiwan card, in the blueprint for the return of the American manufacturing industry he created, Taiwan, which controls the world's main chip production capacity, will only be an obstacle, Trump has no patience to slowly erode Taiwan's manufacturing industry like Biden, and just wants to snatch the chip industry from Taiwan overnight, which will inevitably lead to a vicious chain reaction, so that the United States will lose its political influence in Taiwan, resulting in the US government can no longer use the "Taiwan card" to contain China's overall development.
But these are only appearances, and a direct withdrawal of long-term influence, as Trump did, is likely to have some unforeseen consequences. We cannot judge whether these politicians on the island, who have been "leaning on the United States to seek independence" all the year round, will jump over the wall in a hurry after suddenly losing the influence of the United States, which will lead to further deterioration of the situation in the Taiwan Strait and a complete deadlock in cross-strait relations.
Fundamentally speaking, the United States should be responsible for what it has done, and since it has been meddling in the Taiwan Strait issue for many years, it should resolve all the repercussions it has caused before withdrawing, conduct in-depth exchanges with the Chinese side, and slowly remove the influence of the United States in the Taiwan Strait in the form of dialogue.
Even if he does not completely leave the Taiwan Strait, there are still many uncertainties in Sino-US relations in the Trump 2.0 era, because Trump will never give up any possibility of containing China's economy in his second term.
The two parties in the United States have reached an anti-China consensus, and China has become the "loser" of the election?
During Trump's first term, we witnessed an unprecedentedly large-scale trade war between China and the United States, many of which were inherited by the Biden administration and are still affecting the bilateral relationship, and in the Trump 2.0 era, he will adopt more aggressive policies.
According to Mr. Trump's own confirmations, he has negotiated with his team a plan to impose tariffs of 60 percent or more on all Chinese goods during his second term, as well as a general tariff of 10 percent on all U.S. imports. In a Bloomberg report on February 12, this policy was analyzed, and the final economic analysis concluded that Trump's policy would reduce the $575 billion trade channel between China and the United States to zero.
In the current US polls, Trump has a narrow lead over Biden, and if he wants to extend his advantage and turn it into a victory, Trump may take more drastic measures against China.
But this is not the worst news in this US election, because Biden will not ignore Trump's gradual lead over him, he will definitely take measures to fight back, and under the anti-China consensus of the Republican Party and the Democratic Party in the United States, Biden is most likely to take countermeasures is to follow Trump to strengthen his China containment strategy and take tougher pressure measures against China on the eve of Election Day.
This will lead to the failure of all past diplomatic détente efforts between China and the United States, and the so-called diplomatic guardrails that the Biden administration has built with great difficulty will immediately fail.
What is even more worrying is that the Biden administration, because of its status as a ruling government, has more options than Trump in containing China, in addition to directly raising tariffs on China, Biden can also use the current technology warfare methods to impose tougher export restrictions on China's semiconductors and chip manufacturing equipment, and target Chinese companies to prevent them from operating in the United States.
In addition, America's Western allies are generally afraid that Trump's return to power will provide more support for Biden, who has already established a "chip alliance" with the Netherlands and Japan, and in order to avoid the harm caused by Trump's return to power, these countries may be more actively involved in anti-China activities.
Therefore, in this US election, whether Trump or Biden wins, China will be the "loser".
This is also clearly stated in the Bloomberg report, but the media believes that China is not without opportunities to turn around, and China will not sit idly by and wait for risks from the United States. In 2023 alone, sales of Chinese tech company Huawei soared to nearly $100 billion, and Huawei's Mate 60 Pro phone was also equipped with China's own 7nm advanced process chips, and the whole of China is actively preparing for a possible shock in response to the diplomatic uncertainty following the US election.
So, will Sino-US relations enter a stage of extreme tension in the future, and will China be able to avoid the damage of the US election with this series of precautionary measures?
With internal and external troubles intertwined, where will China-US relations go?
In fact, no matter who wins the two parties, this kind of anti-China scenario will be intensified. In the 2020 U.S. election, Trump and Biden had a tough competition against China, the two criticized each other's foreign policy for being too weak, and stressed that they would strengthen the containment of China. It is not until 2023, when he must stabilize the external environment in the United States, that he begins to accelerate the détente and seek engagement and dialogue with China.
In the two years of strong pressure in 2021 and 2022, China has not been greatly affected, especially in the first half of 2023, when Sino-US relations are at their most tense, and China has still maintained stable economic recovery and growth. China's own strategy of technological development and multilateral cooperation has proven to be able to withstand strong pressure from the United States.
Relations between China and the United States may be tense for a while after the new president takes office, but it is unlikely to be fully decoupled. There are some political factors involved in the United States itself, and many of the promises made by the president of the United States to voters are just nonsense to earn votes, and they are not 100% Turning to practical actions, the teams of Trump and Biden are not fools, they also know the impact that the complete decoupling of China and the United States may have on the global economy and the United States itself, and they do not want to see the United States go into a full-blown recession because of the economic collapse, so when they strongly contain China, they are also controlling the friction between the two sides to avoid a real conflict between China and the United States, from the trade war in the Trump era to the "balloon incident" between China and the United States in the Biden era, we can detect this sign.
However, this does not mean that the relationship between China and the United States is completely free of danger, and the political model of the United States gradually sliding towards populism is simply walking a tightrope, and no one can guarantee that as the relationship between China and the United States becomes more tense, the two sides will not have the possibility of a misfire, and if an accident occurs, it will cause irreparable consequences.
At present, the best choice for the United States is to continue to promote Sino-US détente, keep Sino-US relations in a relatively stable state, maintain fighting without breaking, and avoid accidents and miscalculations. If these two US presidential candidates disregard the security of the United States for the sake of their votes and make exaggerated promises to voters, resulting in continued tension or even conflict between China and the United States in the future, then the final bitter fruit will have to be swallowed by the United States itself.