The average price of pork continued to decline, and beef and mutton, which has a strong price all year round, is also particularly "close to the people" this year, and the price has fallen for 8 consecutive months, hitting a new low in the past three years.
Approaching the Spring Festival of the Year of the Dragon, pork, beef, mutton and chicken all kinds of Chinese New Year's Eve rice ingredients ushered in the peak sales season. However, unlike previous years, many consumers found that the prices of these core ingredients did not rise before the Spring Festival this year, and some even declined.
How is this year different from previous years?
Meat prices fell, retail prices of cattle and sheep fell in August, and the wholesale price of beef fell by 2% year-on-year
"If you want this piece of fat and thin, help me chop it into a filling, and go back to make dumplings to eat." "At the end of January, in the fresh meat section of a farmers' market in Luyi Street, Tongzhou District, Beijing, a customer bought 5 catties of fresh pork. Liu Fuli, the stall owner, picked up a knife, skillfully cut a whole piece of pork belly, put it in a stuffing machine, and then bagged it, and the business was completed.
The price tag on the counter next to it reads: 15 yuan a pound of pork belly, 13 yuan a pound of front tip meat, 10 yuan a pound of cavity bones, and 35 yuan a pound of ribs.
According to Liu Fuli's recollection, the price of pork is now generally lower than last year's price by 5 to 6 yuan. In February last year, the average wholesale price at the peak price was 20.97 yuan per catty.
Looking back at the whole of 2023, domestic pig prices will continue to grind to the bottom, and the beginning of 2024 will also continue to decline. According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the first and second weeks of 2024, the weekly average of the total ex-factory price index of lean white pork in 16 provinces (municipalities directly under the central government) fell month-on-month and year-on-year.
Not only pork, but also beef and mutton are cheaper than in previous years. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, as of December 31, 2023, the monthly retail prices of beef and mutton have fallen for eight consecutive months, and the retail prices of beef have hit a record low in three years.
In the Jianye Market in Zhumadian City, Henan Province, a merchant pointed out that compared with before the beginning of winter, the current price of mutton has risen slightly, and the price of beef has decreased slightly.
Ms. Jin, who came to buy beef, originally wanted to marinate a few catties of beef tendons at home, but after glancing at the price tag, she put a box of lamb chops and two boxes of beef ribs in the vegetable basket.
"Take advantage of the price reduction to buy more and add a few more hard dishes to the table. Ms. Jin told reporters that before the Chinese New Year last year, she bought about 50 yuan a pound of beef brisket when preparing New Year's goods for her family, and now it only costs more than 40 yuan a pound, a decrease of 20%.
Shuiduhe Market, Changsha City, Hunan Province, is the largest beef and mutton trading center in the central region, where more than 30 large-scale cattle and sheep breeding enterprises are gathered, and beef and mutton products from all over the country are sold to the whole country.
According to the relevant person in charge of the Shuiduhe market in Changsha City, the trading volume of beef and mutton in the market in 2023 will double compared with the previous year, but the price is generally at a low level. And at present, the average wholesale price of beef in the market has dropped by nearly 20% year-on-year.
Pork production capacity exceeded previous years, beef imports increased, and the mismatch between supply and demand led to lower prices
"The main reason for the decline in meat prices this year is due to the mismatch between supply and demand in the market. "Some industry insiders said that in 2023, the industry is generally optimistic about the meat market, and the market supply will increase; This year, the national meat supply is oversupply, and the recovery of consumption is less than expected, not only the price of pork is trending downward, but the price of beef, mutton and chicken as a substitute is also lower.
Take, for example, pork production capacity. In 2023, the domestic pork production capacity will be as high as 57.94 million tons, far exceeding the normal annual production capacity of 54 million tons, and the market will show a certain pressure of production and marketing mismatch. Especially under the influence of African swine fever, most farmers believe that the production capacity of pigs in the market will decline, and then accelerate the replenishment, making the original overcapacity of the pig market more saturated.
The impact of strong market supply and weak demand has brought certain operating pressure to farmers.
Meng Jianjun, a broiler farmer in Cangzhou City, Hebei Province, said in an interview with reporters: "At the end of 2022, they all thought that the high price of pigs would drive the price of broilers, and many people quickly entered the market. But in August and September 2023, it is slightly better, and the highest price is lower than the year before. ”
Unlike pigs, cattle and sheep, chickens have a shorter growth cycle, and chicken production capacity can be rapidly expanded, leading to oversupply and lower prices.
On the reasons for the decline in beef and mutton prices this year, Hu Xiaoyu, the person in charge of an animal husbandry limited company in Anhua County, analyzed that on the one hand, the breeding technology has been improved, and the cattle and sheep have been gradually released last year, which has significantly increased the output of beef and mutton; On the other hand, the international beef and mutton prices are at a low level, and the import volume continues to increase, which has a greater impact on the domestic beef and mutton prices.
According to the data, in 2023, mainland beef imports will be 2.4962 million tons, an increase of 2.0% year-on-year; The import of mutton was 393,000 tons, an increase of 19.4% year-on-year.
However, despite the obvious price reduction, Hu Xiaoyu remains optimistic. He believes that the current overall economy has maintained a positive upward trend, consumer demand continues to rise during the Spring Festival holiday, and beef and mutton prices are expected to rise slightly.
86% of consumers prefer online purchases Chinese New Year's Eve related searches increased by 2 times year-on-year
On the e-commerce platform, the price of ingredients for Chinese New Year's Eve dinner is cheaper, attracting many consumers to "gather".
According to the 2023 Spring Festival consumption data released by CBNData, 86% of young consumers choose to purchase New Year's goods through online e-commerce.
This year, the trend is even more pronounced. According to the "New Year Consumption Observation" released by the Jingdong Consumption and Industry Development Research Institute, as the Spring Festival of the Dragon Year approaches, the associated search for "Chinese New Year's Eve" on Jingdong has increased by more than 2 times year-on-year.
Wu Lili from Harbin is a senior wool party who likes to buy vegetables on Jingdong Supermarket, and the imported original cut beef tendon in 4 catties of Xianjing is less than 100 yuan, and the price is much lower than the price of 40 yuan per catty in offline channels; The price of 2 catties of chicken pipa legs and chicken wing roots is 26.9 yuan, which is "good quality and cheap", and they are all common ingredients in her shopping cart.
Because of the high cost performance, Wu Lili decided to get this year's Chinese New Year's Eve dinner through Jingdong Supermarket, "The price is more cost-effective than the supermarket at the entrance of the community, and you don't have to run errands yourself." ”
In fact, compared with the offline market, the low-price characteristics of e-commerce platforms are inseparable from the supply chain capabilities behind them.
For a long time, the mainland has formed a stable fresh circulation system based on multi-level wholesale markets, and the products in the hands of farmers and meat enterprises are concentrated and wholesaled by wholesalers, and then transferred to wholesale markets across the country, and then wholesaled by retailers such as supermarkets and stall owners in various communities, and finally reach consumers. Complex distribution channels have further raised the price of meat.
An industry organization once conducted a survey that a slaughterhouse in Hunan Province bought live cattle from farmers at a price of 16 yuan a catty, and after a lengthy supply chain, superimposed transportation costs, labor costs, etc., the price increased layer by layer, and when the beef finally arrived in Chongqing's vegetable market, the price had risen to 40 yuan a catty.
The e-commerce platform shortens the circulation links, reduces the circulation cost, and achieves high quality and low prices through direct procurement from the origin and direct delivery from the source, thereby increasing consumer welfare.
Taking Jingdong Supermarket as an example, in the upstream, Jingdong Supermarket adopts the large-scale supply mode of origin, works hard from the source, and controls the cost of breeding; In the midstream, the mode of direct procurement from the origin and direct delivery of cold chain logistics to the home will save this part of the cost and benefit consumers.
On the sales side, real-time sales monitoring is carried out to accurately understand the needs of consumers, ensure on-demand slaughter, and avoid inventory pressure; In addition, the simple and crude "10 billion subsidy" will further achieve the lowest price.
According to Jingdong Supermarket, during this year's New Year Festival, the prices of sea cucumbers, crabs, shellfish, fish, beef, pork, chicken and other ingredients in Jingdong Supermarket not only decreased comprehensively compared with the same period in 2023, but also generally lower than the offline market.
For Chinese, the Chinese New Year's Eve dinner is the most important gathering of the year. The price advantage will further enhance consumers' enthusiasm for buying ingredients for Chinese New Year's Eve dinner. And this is also a magnifying glass for people's good life. (Source: Xianning News Network)