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Preface
Mongolia has a population of about 3.458 million, and since the signing of the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Alliance with the Soviet Union in 1945, Mongolia's independence has triggered a deep reflection on the Chinese nation. In recent years, Mongolia has adopted a series of policy initiatives close to those of the West, especially the United States, including military exercises, Xi establishment of biological laboratories, and participation in international military operations.
These actions have caused widespread geopolitical concern. What kind of strategic considerations are hidden in Mongolia's "riotous operations" and what impact will they have on the country's future?
Mongolia is the second largest landlocked country in the world, with a vast land area of 1.56 million square kilometers. But at the same time, it is not suitable for large-scale human habitation. That's why, despite its vast territory, Mongolia's population density is surprisingly low – only 2.1 people per square kilometre, with a total population of about 3.2 million, nearly half of which is concentrated in the capital, Ulaanbaatar.
Despite its harsh natural environment, Mongolia is rich in mineral resources. It has a staggering 300 billion tonnes of coal, 3,400 tonnes of gold, 2 billion tonnes of copper, and up to 8 billion barrels of oil. More than 80 types of mineral deposits have been discovered in the country, and thousands of mining areas and mining sites have been established. In particular, Mongolia has rare earth reserves of 31 million tonnes, ranking second in the world after China, which is invaluable to any country's resource strategy.
However, due to the limited economic strength and technological development, Mongolia faces certain challenges in the development and utilization of mineral resources. Resource development here relies heavily on foreign capital and technical cooperation, but most of the profits are taken by foreign companies.
From a hypothetical point of view, what would happen if Mongolia became part of China? From a geostrategic point of view, this would greatly enhance the security of China's northern borders and give Beijing a powerful "northern gate." Mongolia's abundant resources are a huge complement to China, which has a large population. Although China is rich in resources, its per capita resources are not at the world's leading level.
Mongolia's resources, especially rare earth resources, will be of great significance to China's resource strategy. As the world's second largest economy and industrial power, China has advanced mineral development technology, especially in rare earth refining, which will enable Mongolia's resources to be developed and utilized more rationally and efficiently.
In a world of globalization and increasing competition for resources, Mongolia's position and role will become increasingly important. In the middle of the 20th century, with significant changes in the world landscape, Outer Mongolia (Mongolia) separated from China with the support of the Soviet Union and became an independent state.
This historical turning point not only reshaped China's territory into a unique "rooster" shape, but also had a profound impact on regional politics. Under the patronage of the Soviet Union, Mongolia experienced a period of rapid development. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Mongolia faced serious economic challenges.
The country, once dependent on Soviet support, suddenly found itself isolated in a rapidly changing world. Against this background, Mongolia began to seek closer ties with its neighbors, especially China and Russia. The huge potential of the Chinese market and foreign trade routes are crucial to the economic development of Mongolia.
From a geostrategic point of view, Mongolia's location is extremely valuable. Located on China's northern border, if Mongolia can re-integrate with China, it will not only promote the coordination of China's development between the east and the west, but also greatly shorten the distance between Beijing and Xinjiang and other places through the construction of infrastructure such as cross-border railways, thereby expanding China's geographical space and strengthening the strategic security of the capital.
Mongolia's abundant natural resources are also an important aspect of its appeal. It has huge deposits of coal and rare earths, which are of special significance to China, which has a growing demand for resources. If these resources can be used effectively, China will not only be able to further strengthen its position in the global resource market, but also increase its bargaining power in the international high-tech sector, especially in the face of technological constraints from Western countries.
Historically, Mongolia was part of Chinese territory and was under Chinese influence and control at various times. If Mongolia can reintegrate into China's embrace, it will not only increase China's territorial area, but also greatly enhance China's international influence and geopolitical status.
The future of Mongolia is a complex issue that depends not only on Mongolia's own choices, but also on the international political situation. As a peacefully rising power, China is committed to the principle of peaceful coexistence and will not take the initiative to infringe on the sovereignty of other countries. The future direction of Mongolia will be a focus of attention in the political landscape of East Asia and even the world.
On the international political map of the 20th century, the topography of the western section of the Sino-Russian border was complex and varied, starting from the Kuitun Mountains, the peak of the Altai Mountains, which is the meeting point of China, Russia and Kazakhstan. With Kuitun Mountain as the center, the mountain ranges that extend in three directions form a special T-shaped border that divides the territory of the three countries.
The special geographical location of this region has historically served as an important channel for ethnic exchanges between Outer Mongolia and Kazakhstan. The two peoples relied on the mountain corridors for seasonal migration and interaction, resulting in a mixed ethnic settlement pattern in the eastern part of Kazakhstan and the western part of Outer Mongolia.
With the gradual expansion of the Russian Empire and its successor, the Soviet Union, the political landscape of Central Asia changed dramatically. The annexation of Kazakhstan to the Soviet Union and the independence movement of Outer Mongolia were key steps in the Soviet Union's political layout in the region. The merger of the two regions was a strategic risk for the Soviet Union, so the Soviet Union deliberately maintained a certain political and geographical isolation between the two regions.
The Soviet Union also further consolidated its influence in these regions through policies of population migration and land division. The Soviet Union's transfer of part of Russian lands to Kazakhstan was aimed at strengthening the cultural and political assimilation of the region by increasing the proportion of ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan. This led to a significant change in the ethnic composition of Kazakhstan, with the Russian ethnic group at one time outnumbering the Kazakhs.
These geopolitical strategies and layouts have not only had a profound impact on the development of this region in history, but are still of great significance in today's international politics. The political structure of the region, its ethnic composition, and its relations with neighboring powers are all factors that cannot be ignored in the analysis of global politics.
In the midst of a major geopolitical reorganization of the Soviet era, the Soviet leadership made significant adjustments to the territory of Kazakhstan. The Soviet Union decided to assign to Kazakhstan the regions of North Kazakhstan, Akmola, Karaganda and Pavlodar Oblasts, which were formerly part of Russia. This decision significantly changed the geography and ethnic composition of Kazakhstan.
Another strategic goal of the USSR was to minimize the borders of Kazakhstan with other non-Soviet countries. The five states of Stan in Central Asia were all part of the Soviet Union, so the main focus of the Soviet Union was on Mongolia and China. The 1,770-kilometer-long border between Kazakhstan and China could not be changed, and the Soviet strategy was to cut off direct ties between Kazakhstan and Mongolia.
This adjustment of territory and borders led to an increase in the proportion of ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to balance the ethnic ratio, the Kazakh government moved the capital to Nur-Sultan in the north and implemented an immigration policy that attracted ethnic Kazakhs from all over the world. This policy is particularly appealing to ethnic Kazakhs living in Outer Mongolia.
Since Kazakhstan and Outer Mongolia do not share a border, and the Altai Mountains serve as a natural barrier, the connection between the two countries is mainly dependent on passing through Russia. Kazakhstan must coordinate with Russia in order to facilitate the migration of ethnic Kazakhs from Outer Mongolia. This geographical and political arrangement effectively limited direct communication between Kazakhstan and Outer Mongolia.
The geographical layout of China and Russia on the western border has also been affected. The Kutun Mountains in the Altai Mountains have become a natural obstacle to the Sino-Russian border, reaching an altitude of up to four thousand meters, hindering direct land transportation between the two countries.
This geographical feature means that direct energy and trade routes between China and Russia need to bypass Mongolia or Kazakhstan, which has become a key transportation hub connecting the two powers and holds a vital geostrategic location.
To explore the concept of Outer Mongolia becoming a part of China again, we must analyze it from multiple angles. This topic is not only about complex international relations, but also about national identity, cultural self-determination, and geopolitics.
It is crucial to consider the position of Outer Mongolia. As a country with complete sovereignty, Outer Mongolia has its own government system, legal framework and unique national culture. Whether a country chooses to join another depends not only on the decisions of its government, but also on civic sentiment, national pride, and expectations for future development.
As it stands, the majority of Outer Mongolians identify with their identity as an independent state, cherish their cultural traditions and historical heritage, and show clear reservations about joining China. They fear the loss of national sovereignty, cultural assimilation, and possible social and political pressures.
Any discussion of the integration of Outer Mongolia with China must be based on the will and consent of the people of Outer Mongolia. This requires lengthy dialogues and negotiations, as well as a deep understanding of each other's cultures, histories, and social structures. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account mutually beneficial cooperation between the two sides in the economic, social and political fields, as well as how to safeguard the interests and rights of the people of Outer Mongolia.
On the other hand, China's role as a global power in this process cannot be ignored. China's decisions will be based on its national interests, national sentiments, and international standing. China's economic power, military capabilities, and diplomatic strategy will be key factors, and even if China has the ability to reclaim Outer Mongolia, it does not automatically mean that China will take action. China's decision-making will depend on a complex set of factors, including domestic public opinion, the impact of international relations, and potential political and economic consequences.
The possibility of Outer Mongolia's return to China depends not only on the interaction between Outer Mongolia and China, but also on broader international political and economic considerations. This is a multi-dimensional, multi-layered question, the answer to which depends not only on the will of the governments and peoples of the two countries, but also on the influence of the global political environment. In this process, many complex factors need to be carefully analyzed and considered to ensure that any decision is well thought out and comprehensively considered.